GFDL wins again

[thunderchief]

theres a shocker.

For the most part it had chris going south and dissipating.

[x-y-no]

So when did Chris go south?

The remnants of him are tracking along the north coast of Cuba.

[miamicanes177]

gfdl actually had it crossing hispaniola for several runs, and yesterday it strengthened Chris to about 70kts in 5 days. So it was a far cry from being perfect, and Chris is far from dissipating.

[MGC]

GFDL took Chris across Hispanolia. Chris has been mostly on a west or WNW track....MGC

[thunderchief]

more south than the other models. many of the GFDL runs were right over cuba.

[x-y-no]

I recall a number of the GFDL runs being south of Cuba, which didn't happen.


Actually, the remnants of Chris are tracking a lot like the GFS had the wave going many of its runs.

[sevenleft]

The reason why Chris dissipated needs to be taken into consideration when verifying peoples' or models' forecasts.

It dissipated due to significant, and seemingly unforseen until it was about to happen northeasterly windshear.

So I can't say the "It'll crash into Hispaniola and dissipate" group is correct, even tho the end result was the same.

[thunderchief]

no model is going to be spot on, but the GFDL verified most closely, again.

and forecasting track will always be easier than forecasting intensity.

[sevenleft]

no model is going to be spot on, but the GFDL verified most closely, again.

and forecasting track will always be easier than forecasting intensity.

How so.

[clfenwi]

Reviewing the forecast plot archives, I would say the shallow Bam had the best track forecasts overall.

[Thunder44]

GFDL was the only model that show this system developing into a TS.

[Bailey1777]

I think if any of us had drawn a straight line from where Chris was 5days ago to the WNW it would be on more than any of the models.

[wxmann_91]

Actually the Globals won this one by a wide margin. We were all doubting them. In the end, their prognostication of the death of Chris, and the emergence of a disturbance in the GOM, was correct.

[Air Force Met]

GFDL was the only model that show this system developing into a TS.

You are incorrect.

From the very first discussion:

THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

From the second discussion:

MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.

Here is the intensity forecast...where it STILL dissipates the system...NEVER taking it to a 55 KT TS...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080106.png

The track from that time was over the PR and Hispaniola.

00z? Same basic track and still dissipating it.

The track the NEXT day? Still over Hispaniola.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080300.png

You have a really bad memory. It was one of the WORST for this storm.

[mtm4319]

None of the models were that good -- not as good as average, anyway.

[Coredesat]

SHIPS was the only model that was developing the system much.

[FloridaDiver]

gfdl actually had it crossing hispaniola for several runs, and yesterday it strengthened Chris to about 70kts in 5 days. So it was a far cry from being perfect, and Chris is far from dissipating.

I beg to differ, but the NHC has stopped advisories therefore Chris IS in fact dissipated. As mentioned there is a slight chance of “re-generation” once the remnants enter the GOM... but climatology speaking a system has to be dissipated first before it can re-generate…. I know, I’m picky but there is nothing else to write about...

[Normandy]

Well if the gfdl WON, what mosel LOSS?