The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

[Grease Monkey]

nice outflow

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.



5:30 PM TWO.

[O Town]

[SouthFloridawx]

Where did you get that graphic OTOWN?

[O Town]

http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcServi ... d=444&l=en

Scroll down to the full disk sectored image at left, and click the left center box. They seem to update images every half hour but I see this is the same one. Hmm. Anyways I like this view for the waves emerging off the African coast. The color version is sweet.

[cycloneye]

A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 05/1800 UTC NEAR 11N30W REMAINING
NEAR STATIONARY. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE AND THE ABOVE LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MID
LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 25W-37W.
CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE
WAVE.



8 PM Discussion.A low has formed.

[Grease Monkey]

Enjoy it when we still feel there's hope.

[P.K.]

That low has actually been there at 1010hPa since at least 0900 GMT this morning. It was listed in the MetArea II bulletin I posted in the Azores thread where it said it was deepening, although I notice in the 2100 GMT bulletin it now says it is filling.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like this baby's going to pop! Its has a VERY GOOD CHANCE of developing, but the question is, when?

[cycloneye]

Full Disk



Above is the 00:00 UTC Full Disk image where you can see this wave and other features that are in the Eastern Atlantic and inside Africa.

For those who haved not registered below is the link,and is for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[MississippiHurricane]

I think it will be a depression in the next 2 days. (Just guessing of course!)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system at 10.5/31 looks to be slowly becoming better organized. Latest satellite shows that convection is starting to pop over that area. With the highest wave legth at the lat posted above. I expect if this where to close off it will do so right there. The system bethind it is also becoming better organized with convection forming over the center.

[SouthFloridawx]

This area has been slowly getting more organized since yesterday. A nice pop of convection throught this area and with favorable conditions around it we may see a depression form soon. If you look back on the page behind this one you will see the graphics and the reasons I have given for favorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

If the organization of the wave/low continues to improve,then invest 91L will be up tommorow.

[SouthFloridawx]

The system at 10.5/31 looks to be slowly becoming better organized. Latest satellite shows that convection is starting to pop over that area. With the highest wave legth at the lat posted above. I expect if this where to close off it will do so right there. The system bethind it is also becoming better organized with convection forming over the center.

Matt with the 10.5/31 system I think it will get some help from the wave behind it causing some very nice convection overnight and into tomorrow being that the low is stationary.

EDIT:

Also to note, this is a pretty large area of convection and mid level circulation in this area. It would probably wind up being a pretty decent sized storm.

[calculatedrisk]

The Aug 6 00:15 UTC Meteosat:

[ConvergenceZone]

If the organization of the wave/low continues to improve,then invest 91L will be up tommorow.

and with Chris dying out, the attention will turn to this area tomorrow. This will be interesting to say the least!! I'm still not confident that this will recurve out to sea though.

[MiamiensisWx]

In addition, the possible developing wave/low behind this one may be a good candidate for development.

See my thread on my thoughts

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system is hardly moving at all still centered at 10.5/31.5/32. The overall MLC/LLC has sharpen over the lst 12 hours. Instead of covering 8 to 10 degrees it covers about 5 degrees. Convection is starting to focuse over the center of the low pressure area. Which means that it could be starting to close off. Outflow looks very good and inflow looks good. To the north of the system looks to be SAL but this system looks to be doing good.

Quickscats show the western part of the system...Which shows there is a northly and westly wind(Also eastly)So this thing likely is developing a LLC. Once convection fires over the center expect some fairly quick development.