weak el nino to inhibit the 2006 hurricane season??

[Jim Hughes]

I thought right now the eastern pacific is neutral Jim hughes??? I am confused

It takes three straight months for certain conditions to be present before NOAA officially says that an El Nino exists. So you could technically have stronger El Nino condtions lets say by late August then in October but yet we would have to wait until October for them to tell us that one exists. Get my point?

[wxmann_91]

Look at the SST's below the surface rainstorm. One SOI reading does not equal a full blown El Nino.

This is not "one" daily reading here by any means. The 90 day average is approaching -9.0 . That is a legitimate average that is definitely pointing towards El Nino . The MEI is also starting to tilt that way. SST anomalies are warming , even Region 1+2 came around and the subsurface still supports this warm trend. What indicates a non event?

Oh yeah, I definitely agree that El Nino is coming. But I think rainstorm was implying that there wasn't warm sst's popping even though the SOI plunged to -50.

2002 had not one storm develop after September.