Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tgenius]

What's the min Dvorak reading for TD, 2.0?

[Bailey1777]

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Mission Statement

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Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

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CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars
More Information about the Saffir-Simpson Categories



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Last Modified: 04/17/2005 20:42:48
Contact Information:
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[rnbaida]

where do you go to find the drovak?

[Bailey1777]

Cenral Florida Hurricane Center

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[rnbaida]

look at the water vapor loop. Is it expanding or opening up into a wave...

['CaneFreak]

shear is gonna go down

If the shear is going to do anything, it will actually increase...there is a complex set of ULLs that are north of the system...one weaker ULL is headed down from the north to intercept the system...shear will probably increase to 20 to 30 knots by late Monday...early Tuesday....

[rnbaida]

shear is gonna go down

If the shear is going to do anything, it will actually increase...there is a complex set of ULLs that are north of the system...one weaker ULL is headed down from the north to intercept the system...shear will probably increase to 20 to 30 knots by late Monday...early Tuesday....

well i guess we better stop talking about this./...

['CaneFreak]

no, I am just stating the facts!!! Look at the water vapor loop....you will see what I am talking about...I may develop...but it is going to have a hard time and it will probably be a few days before it can reach a favorable environment in which it can organize itself...

Do a few water vapor loops and you will see what I am talking about....

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[rnbaida]

it looks like it is opening up, could it be opening up into a wave?? I still see convection flaring up...

[EDR1222]

Still way to early to tell, but there have been upper lows near the Bahamas and the Florida East Coast on several occasions this year. It will be interesting to see if this somewhat persistent feature this year will remain for a while longer and have an impact on approaching storms. Again, 91L is way out there, but at the present time we do have an upper level low spinning up near where the previous one was located as Chris was approaching.

[SouthFloridawx]

no, I am just stating the facts!!! Look at the water vapor loop....you will see what I am talking about...I may develop...but it is going to have a hard time and it will probably be a few days before it can reach a favorable environment in which it can organize itself...

Do a few water vapor loops and you will see what I am talking about....

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

GFS is suggesting that this ULL may move back to the north towards days 4 and 5 and if 91L can form a circulation even if it is sheared by the ULL if it is moving along at a decent clip, will pass this up and end up in the Caribbean.

We all know that the models are underestimating the ridge as it has been firmly entrenched.
Current position of the Ridge at the surface.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
72 Surface forecast from TPC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

What suprises me is that there is so many people calling this storm dead.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like it is opening up, could it be opening up into a wave?? I still see convection flaring up...

It was never fully closed...its not opening up either, and you especially can tell on WV imagery...probably the worst for the job. Look at a visible image...thats where youll find out anything of that sort

[StrongWind]

The NHC has just moved its atlantic floater 2 to this new invest 91.... take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Looks like it's going phht. I say that of course with the full knowledge that things will progress pretty much opposite from what I expect.


By the way, how did we get to invest 91 when we had 99/Chris?

SW

[cheezyWXguy]

because 90L lasted for 6 hours

[clfenwi]

The NHC has just moved its atlantic floater 2 to this new invest 91.... take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Looks like it's going phht. I say that of course with the full knowledge that things will progress pretty much opposite from what I expect.


By the way, how did we get to invest 91 when we had 99/Chris?

SW

Invest 90 (link is to our forum discussion) was for an area east of the Carolina's.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, everyone seems to think this won't develop due to the amount of shear around it. There is a wave to the east of it though that we may want to start concentrating on, and there should be some more waves coming off Africa soon later next week(towards mid August). Hopefully we will have something to talk about within the next 2 weeks.

[destro34]

i have a bad feeling about this one, iwas just ckecking that most of the storms that had affected the caribeans islands,...just form over there, where this wave is....i was doing some research,and the fact is the fact..i could be wrong,please, correct me

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think I'd worry about it Destro. I thought this would develop too, but many of the PRO Mets on here don't think it will develop because of the shear. I'm just learning this stuff, so they probably know what they are talking about....Just keep your eyes on the maps come late August and in September, because we should have something coming together by then.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 061730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.8 33.5 285./ 9.9
6 11.8 34.5 271./ 9.8
12 11.8 35.5 273./ 9.9
18 11.8 36.7 271./11.8
24 11.8 37.8 267./11.1
30 11.6 38.7 259./ 8.6
36 11.5 39.4 261./ 6.7
42 11.5 40.6 271./11.7
48 11.3 41.5 254./ 9.7
54 11.0 42.7 258./11.6
60 10.8 43.7 255./ 9.7
66 10.6 44.5 258./ 8.0
72 10.8 45.3 282./ 8.1
78 11.0 45.9 289./ 6.6
84 11.3 46.9 288./10.1
90 11.4 48.0 278./10.9
96 11.6 48.9 282./ 9.4
102 11.8 50.0 279./10.3
108 12.3 50.7 304./ 8.6
114 13.1 51.4 321./10.7
120 13.7 52.0 310./ 7.7
126 14.5 52.6 320./10.3


12z GFDL.This run is distinct from the 6z run as now the track has it more closer to the Leseer Antilles vs the 6z which was tracking NW away from the Antilles much farther east.