FWIW the SOI is seriously in the toilet

[Jim Hughes]

You're welcome Misshurricane.

FWIW the surface SSTA's were already off the charts in August 1997 so don't expect an El Nino of that magnitude.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Also, LarryWx is an expert on this topic, and he had forecasted in another bb that the SOI would plunge, and that it would be the lowest on Sunday.

I agree . Larry is very good .

But I look at things differently..space weather ...stratosphere. I said in this very forum last September that the recent space weather activity pointed toward a developing La Nina...and it developed.

This 2/7/06 comment , in the below thread, is to a proffesional MET (HM) at another forum,...easternuswx...I mention about how things seem to be changing in the Pacific and how the warming in the stratosphere was also pointing toward a reversing of the the La Nina/ positive MEI.

So lets think about this. NOAA finally came out in February I believe to say that a La Nina was present and I am actually telling someone that everything is going to reverse on February 7th.

So they were behind me by some five months with my September/La Nina comments and than behind me in it's demise and now I guarantee you that they will be behind me in the El Nino also.

Now I take allot of heat from some of the experts around these forums about my unproven methodologies etc...but you show me who or what organization beat me to the punch here for both of the changes?

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=82641

[CycloneCarl]

Now I take allot of heat from some of the experts around these forums about my unproven methodologies etc...but you show me who or what organization beat me to the punch here for both of the changes?

Hi Jim.

You may be interested to read this paper:

New ENSO Forecasts Based on Solar Model
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (22 Dec 2003).
- The latest forecast from Dr Landscheidt's solar model for predicting ENSO events. The next El Niño should emerge around July 2006 and last at least until May 2007, with a probability of 80%.

As the now deceased Dr Theodor Landscheidt used the torque cycle of the Sun around the Solar System Barycentre (= centre of mass of the solar system) for his Solar activity, SOI, NAO, PDO, US drought, and various other investigations and predictions, you may also be interested to read more of his material.

The list below (including most intro comments) is selected from a much larger list of guest papers by various authors from this webpage assembled in chronological order to make the evolution of his work easier to follow - the paper I linked to above is the last one on this list I prepared for another forum:

Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
- demonstrates that climate changes are predominantly the result of solar activity, not human activity.

Solar Activity Controls El Niño and La Niña
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
- A new solar model to explain the timing of previous ENSO events and to predict future ones
Plus, Reactions to Landscheidt's paper (ZIP archive of web pages)

Top Climate Events' Linked to Solar Motion Cycle
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (3 Jan 2000)
- NOAA's top climate events of the 20th Century correlate with solar motion cycle

Comments on "Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics" (by Dr Theodor Landscheidt)
by Charles "Chick" F. Keller (USA) (20 Jan 2000)
- Disputes findings by Dr Landscheidt on solar-climate linkages
Also, see `Open Review' of Chick Keller's paper

Sun's Role in the Satellite-Balloon-Surface Issue
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (26 Mar 2000)
- How the satellite and sonde data shows a more natural response to the sun than does the surface record.

New Confirmation of Strong Solar Forcing of Climate
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (7 Nov 2000).
- Recent flooding of the River Po in Italy was predicted in advance through Solar Motion Cycle analysis.

Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (9 April 2001).
- After predicting that the next El Niño will peak late next year, Dr Landscheidt now shows that a similar correlation exists between solar motion/activity cycles and the N.A.O.

Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation Subjected To Solar Forcing
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (25 April 2001).
- First ENSO, then the NAO (item above), now Dr Landscheidt completes the trilogy demonstrating that the 50-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also a product of solar forcing, not random chance.

El Niño Forecast Revisited
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (19 March 02).
- Dr Landscheidt reviews his prediction made over 3 years ago of the El Niño now developing, and describes his method in layman's terms for the benefit of non-expert readers.

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (15 Mar 2003).
- Following from his stunning success in predicting the timing of the current El Niño over 4 years ago, Dr Theodor Landscheidt has now applied his solar analysis technique to the problem of periodic drought conditions in the U.S. He has developed a long-range forecast covering the period up to 2030. He predicts that the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years. A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on and should last about five years.

Decadal-Scale Variations in El-Niño Intensity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (20 May 2003).
- Where does El Niño and La Niña go from here? Using his solar motions analysis (which successfully predicted the last La Niña and the recent El Niño), Dr Landscheidt looks 80 years into the future and finds La Niña more dominant.

Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (21 Sept 03).
- Solar activity and solar motion variations are found to explain much of the variability of CO2 growth over the last several decades.  The average annual increase over the last 10 years was 1.66 ppmv/yr, which is less than half that assumed by climate models.

New ENSO Forecasts Based on Solar Model
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (22 Dec 2003).
- The latest forecast from Dr Landscheidt's solar model for predicting ENSO events. The next El Niño should emerge around July 2006 and last at least until May 2007, with a probability of 80%.

[Jim Hughes]

Now I take allot of heat from some of the experts around these forums about my unproven methodologies etc...but you show me who or what organization beat me to the punch here for both of the changes?

Hi Jim.

You may be interested to read this paper:

New ENSO Forecasts Based on Solar Model
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (22 Dec 2003).
- The latest forecast from Dr Landscheidt's solar model for predicting ENSO events. The next El Niño should emerge around July 2006 and last at least until May 2007, with a probability of 80%.

As the now deceased Dr Theodor Landscheidt used the torque cycle of the Sun around the Solar System Barycentre (= centre of mass of the solar system) for his Solar activity, SOI, NAO, PDO, US drought, and various other investigations and predictions, you may also be interested to read more of his material.

The list below (including most intro comments) is selected from a much larger list of guest papers by various authors from this webpage assembled in chronological order to make the evolution of his work easier to follow - the paper I linked to above is the last one on this list I prepared for another forum:

Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
- demonstrates that climate changes are predominantly the result of solar activity, not human activity.

Solar Activity Controls El Niño and La Niña
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
- A new solar model to explain the timing of previous ENSO events and to predict future ones
Plus, Reactions to Landscheidt's paper (ZIP archive of web pages)

Top Climate Events' Linked to Solar Motion Cycle
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (3 Jan 2000)
- NOAA's top climate events of the 20th Century correlate with solar motion cycle

Comments on "Solar Activity: A Dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics" (by Dr Theodor Landscheidt)
by Charles "Chick" F. Keller (USA) (20 Jan 2000)
- Disputes findings by Dr Landscheidt on solar-climate linkages
Also, see `Open Review' of Chick Keller's paper

Sun's Role in the Satellite-Balloon-Surface Issue
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (26 Mar 2000)
- How the satellite and sonde data shows a more natural response to the sun than does the surface record.

New Confirmation of Strong Solar Forcing of Climate
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (7 Nov 2000).
- Recent flooding of the River Po in Italy was predicted in advance through Solar Motion Cycle analysis.

Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (9 April 2001).
- After predicting that the next El Niño will peak late next year, Dr Landscheidt now shows that a similar correlation exists between solar motion/activity cycles and the N.A.O.

Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation Subjected To Solar Forcing
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (25 April 2001).
- First ENSO, then the NAO (item above), now Dr Landscheidt completes the trilogy demonstrating that the 50-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also a product of solar forcing, not random chance.

El Niño Forecast Revisited
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (19 March 02).
- Dr Landscheidt reviews his prediction made over 3 years ago of the El Niño now developing, and describes his method in layman's terms for the benefit of non-expert readers.

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (15 Mar 2003).
- Following from his stunning success in predicting the timing of the current El Niño over 4 years ago, Dr Theodor Landscheidt has now applied his solar analysis technique to the problem of periodic drought conditions in the U.S. He has developed a long-range forecast covering the period up to 2030. He predicts that the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years. A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on and should last about five years.

Decadal-Scale Variations in El-Niño Intensity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (20 May 2003).
- Where does El Niño and La Niña go from here? Using his solar motions analysis (which successfully predicted the last La Niña and the recent El Niño), Dr Landscheidt looks 80 years into the future and finds La Niña more dominant.

Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (21 Sept 03).
- Solar activity and solar motion variations are found to explain much of the variability of CO2 growth over the last several decades.  The average annual increase over the last 10 years was 1.66 ppmv/yr, which is less than half that assumed by climate models.

New ENSO Forecasts Based on Solar Model
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt (22 Dec 2003).
- The latest forecast from Dr Landscheidt's solar model for predicting ENSO events. The next El Niño should emerge around July 2006 and last at least until May 2007, with a probability of 80%.

Thanks Carl but I already know about Theodor's stuff and I have read a good deal of it. I exchanged a few e-mails with him before his passing a few years back and I even made some comments in a couple of his open debated discussions. We were going down the same path but his ego got in the way. I wish we could have worked together but he felt I had nothing to teach him. (But yet he hardly knew anything about space weather initially and you can watch his knowledge grow in these debates and critiques. )

He unfortunately failed to realize that some of the things he started to talk about, like in February 1999, to a gentleman by the name of Omar, I had already talked about before in an a chat room conference from Steamboat Springs, in either 1996 or 1997 with some TWC meteorologists and Ants Leetma.

My 96' or 97' comments and questions were in reference to the individual stronger solar flaring events, magnetic field readings etc... in June 1991, and the onset of the El Nino.

They listened and answered some of my questions but they did not understand these variables. I think I could make a better case today since some of these subject matters are understood more.

I found Theodor's methodology fascinating and it has legitimacy if you understand how everything works. He was more into the Golden Section..harmonics ...big fingers...Center Mass.etc...in his early days. He never branched out to the cyclical nature of certain types of space weather until he started to have these open discussions on John Daly's website. He died shortly later though so it never really expanded into the places that it should have.

I plan on taking it there but I will use my own research and methodology. I will be writing up a fairly extensive research discussion over at Easternuswx.com during the next few days. I am choosing this place because it seems to be more user friendly for uploading stuff from my perspective. I am a "computer dunce".

It will deal with the space weather effect upon a teleconnection. I will also branch out into other possible influences. I have yet to decide how many topics I will touch base on first. I may just let it funnel into other areas. My time is limited and I am afraid if I make it to big that it will never get written. I also know that if you make it to big that people will also get lost. So that would not be to good either.

[willjnewton]

so you all our saying that a el nino is currently developing and will remain in place am I correct???and will this el nino be weak or moderate???

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, if you look at the SOI's and SSTA's, the 1982-83 warm phase event was stronger than 1997-98 by a bit. However, the 97-98 one got all of the press in part due to what happened in 82-83. The 1982-83 event resulted in a couple of things the 97-98 failed to pull off. A hurricane (Iwa) which followed almost the same track as Iniki and then slammed into CA as an intense ET low, a Tropical Depression landfall (Olivia) in SoCA) and the worst floods in Tucson's and Utah's history. The 97-98 event gave us Nora into AZ but we had Lester in '92 so that wasn't so outstanding.

Steve

[CycloneCarl]

Thanks Carl but I already know about Theodor's stuff and I have read a good deal of it. I exchanged a few e-mails with him before his passing a few years back and I even made some comments in a couple of his open debated discussions. We were going down the same path but his ego got in the way. I wish we could have worked together but he felt I had nothing to teach him. (But yet he hardly knew anything about space weather initially and you can watch his knowledge grow in these debates and critiques. )

I should have realised you were aware of Theodor's work, and if I had reread the debate pages before posting here I may have noticed your contribution (been a while since I read through it) ... however, others here may find it interesting.

He unfortunately failed to realize that some of the things he started to talk about, like in February 1999, to a gentleman by the name of Omar, I had already talked about before in an a chat room conference from Steamboat Springs, in either 1996 or 1997 with some TWC meteorologists and Ants Leetma.

My 96' or 97' comments and questions were in reference to the individual stronger solar flaring events, magnetic field readings etc... in June 1991, and the onset of the El Nino.

They listened and answered some of my questions but they did not understand these variables. I think I could make a better case today since some of these subject matters are understood more.

Is there anywhere I can read about your ideas?

The solar relationship to weather and cycles such as the SOI has fascinated me for years.

I found Theodor's methodology fascinating and it has legitimacy if you understand how everything works. He was more into the Golden Section..harmonics ...big fingers...Center Mass.etc...in his early days. He never branched out to the cyclical nature of certain types of space weather until he started to have these open discussions on John Daly's website.

Science tells us that Angular Momentum (AM) is preserved, so when we see the AM of the Sun's orbit varying by a factor of around 10^40 in a cyclic manner, and as this effect can throw the Sun from zero to over 2 solar radii from the CM during these cycles, we know there is a heck of a lot of mechanical energy being transferred back and forth between the Sun and the planets that otherwise goes unrecognised.

It also makes sense that this immense flow of energy has a powerful influence on the Sun's activity cycles by inducing large variations in the rotation rate of the Sun and the Sun's magnetic field, evidenced by the high degree of correlation between them.

We know from satellite data that Solar EM cyclic activity, as evidenced by sunspots, solar flares, coronal holes, and CME's, has huge impacts on the Geomagnetic field, at times smashing into it with immense blasts of electrons and protons (electric currents by another name) that severely deform it, inducing huge 'radiation belt' and ionospheric plasma current flows.

From there it is not that much of a stretch - at least to anyone with even a modest technical background related to EM radiation - to see that this effects the electrical field between the Earth's surface and ionosphere via capacitive (electrical) coupling, and induces large current flows in the oceans and more conductive parts of the lithosphere (and perhaps far deeper into the core itself) via inductive (magnetic) coupling, thereby inducing shorter term cycles of atmospheric electrical activity and longer term cycles of surface-subsurface ocean/lithospheric heating and cooling.

What suprises me is that so few people seem to be able to recognise the potential of all this non-trivial EM activity to effect the Earth's weather and climate!

He died shortly later though so it never really expanded into the places that it should have.

It is a shame that complications from the flu killed him, as I do think he was on to something quite viable, if far from complete.

I plan on taking it there but I will use my own research and methodology. I will be writing up a fairly extensive research discussion over at Easternuswx.com during the next few days. I am choosing this place because it seems to be more user friendly for uploading stuff from my perspective. I am a "computer dunce".

It will deal with the space weather effect upon a teleconnection. I will also branch out into other possible influences. I have yet to decide how many topics I will touch base on first. I may just let it funnel into other areas. My time is limited and I am afraid if I make it to big that it will never get written. I also know that if you make it to big that people will also get lost. So that would not be to good either.

I look forward to seeing what you write - let me know when it is there.