noaa's climate prediction center enso update

[willjnewton]

can someone please tell me what the noaa's climate prediction center might say about the eastern pacific come thursday???

[Stratosphere747]

*clock is ticking*

[cycloneye]

Will,that question will be answered by them when they release their August update next thursday,But right now what we have to do is to wait until thursday and when they release the August update,I am sure that your question will be answered at storm2k with analyisis from the pro mets.

[willjnewton]

I aplogize everyone and I am sorry for making so much threads but if someone just answers my question and do it right then I will leave you guys alone okay it is simple as that I am trying to be cheerfull and friendly but you guys need to chill out

[WindRunner]

The problem is, Will, that no one really knows. Chances are that they will lower their numbers, but that's because they base their forecasts on things similar to what Dr. Gray bases his forecasts off of. They could just as easily keep them the same as they were earlier this year. We'll know for sure by Thursday.

[cycloneye]

Ok Will,no problem but calm down,Did you read my post above yours about the Climate Prediction center update?

[willjnewton]

oh okay so Dr.Gray predicts neutral conditions in the eastern pacific???

[WindRunner]

No, Dr. Gray doesn't make predictions as to the Pacific conditions, but he does mention the SE Pacific conditions as a reason for reducing his forecast numbers:

4) An increase in Pacific eastern equatorial SSTAs. Sea surface temperatures have still not reached El Niño levels; however, increased warming implies a shift in tropical convection towards the dateline. This eastward-shifted convection often increases vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

[willjnewton]

so you all think that neutral conditions are possible for this 2006 hurricane season or a el nino???

[WindRunner]

so you all think that neutral conditions are possible for this 2006 hurricane season or a el nino???

That's what almost everyone here thinks, yes.

[28_Storms]

Relax Will

[willjnewton]

okay I will relax but our you sure you all our telling me the truth about that you all think that neutral conditions will remain in the eastern pacific???

[vacanechaser]

so you all think that neutral conditions are possible for this 2006 hurricane season or a el nino???

you asked this yesterday and got your answer then... thought we covered this

[willjnewton]

what was the answer again sorry I foregot

[Stratosphere747]

Will...

Try the search feature located above. Type in some of the words you would like answers to and read the threads that you find.

Should work faster and help you out more....

[WindRunner]

okay I will relax but our you sure you all our telling me the truth about that you all think that neutral conditions will remain in the eastern pacific???

Yes, everyone thinks here believes that the eastern Pacific will either remain neutral or develop a weak to moderate El Nino.

[vacanechaser]

the answer is neutral condiditions for the hurricane season and yes the east coast may get hit more than the gulf.... east coast has the highest risk this season...

[Aslkahuna]

Even if we see a shift towards warm phase conditions in the Equatorial East Pacific, the atmospheric lag is such that it would take time for the effects to work on the ATL hurricanes. The trend near the dateline has been for some warming but not at warm phase levels and there's doesn't seem to be that much change so far in them. Also, there's more to look at than just that. One thing I've noted is that besides the Pacific anomalies that there seemed to be a cool anomaly in the Central Atlantic, a regional warm one off SoCA/Baja, New England and the Maritimes and a major warm anomaly in the North Sea and Baltic as well as the Med though the latter two seemed to have eased a bit lately. The US Pacific Coast has been usually clear the past couple of weeks which suggests a lack of the typical upwelling along the coast since the normal strong NW flow seems to have been lacking. It's important to note that ENSO doesn't control everything and while important in some regards it's not so important in others.

Steve

[willjnewton]

thankyou all

[MWatkins]

Even if we see a shift towards warm phase conditions in the Equatorial East Pacific, the atmospheric lag is such that it would take time for the effects to work on the ATL hurricanes. The trend near the dateline has been for some warming but not at warm phase levels and there's doesn't seem to be that much change so far in them. Also, there's more to look at than just that. One thing I've noted is that besides the Pacific anomalies that there seemed to be a cool anomaly in the Central Atlantic, a regional warm one off SoCA/Baja, New England and the Maritimes and a major warm anomaly in the North Sea and Baltic as well as the Med though the latter two seemed to have eased a bit lately. The US Pacific Coast has been usually clear the past couple of weeks which suggests a lack of the typical upwelling along the coast since the normal strong NW flow seems to have been lacking. It's important to note that ENSO doesn't control everything and while important in some regards it's not so important in others.

Steve

Great points Steve...more on the lag time:

OLR anoms in the Pacific, near the dateline had been positive just about all year. Only in the last 6 or 7 days have they gone the other way:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... s.r4.l.gif

We don't even know if that trend will hold...it easily reverse as it did in June.

Even if it doesn't the atmosphere is not behaving as if a Nino is present...and it will take some time before it responds. Not enough time to help us, unfortunately.

Also, extending on that idea, SST's are trending up in the Atlantic and Pacific realtive to normal, while anoms along the equatorial Pacific are not showing the same upward trend...

2 weeks ago:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2006.gif

Now:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2006.gif

MW