why more east coast storms???

[Jim Cantore]

Being 60 miles inland, Hurricane Supplies arent a must, but it's good to have a plan in case something unexpected happens.

If we get hit, my camera is ready, thats my biggest regret with Floyd, no pictures.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This might help explain to you why storms could either impact the East Coast, or more likely go out to sea just off shore:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 12Z WED AUG 09 2006 - 12Z SUN AUG 13 2006

....INAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION....

...MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE STILL ADVERTISED BY 12Z/06 GUIDANCE...

12Z/06 GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS STILL POINT TO MAJOR
AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF THE US
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH AN ALMOST WINTRY LOOKING THICKNESS
PATTERN EVOLVING OVER FAR ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND. FINAL
GRAPHICS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NEW GFS...EXCEPT THAT WE DID NOT
LOWER PRES AS MUCH WITH THE DAY 4-7 FRONTAL WAVES OVER THE ERN
CONUS. 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS.

ONE BIG CHANGE WE MADE FROM THE 00Z/06 ECMWF WAS TO TAKE OUT ITS
EXTREMELY DEEP LOW THAT IT DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN ATL DAY 6. THERE
IS INSUFFICIENT 12Z/06 MODEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUCH DEEP ORGANIZED
STORM. AFTER COORDINATING WITH OPC...WE THINK THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL ELONGATED AREA OF NE-SW LOW PRES WITH WEAK CENTERS RATHER
THAN ONE DEEP SYS.


ANOTHER PROBLEM AREA DEVELOPS OVER TH OH VLY WHERE THE NEW 12Z/06
GFS CREATES VERY LOW SURFACE PRES AND STRONG CIRCULATION AS A
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WE RAISED PRES IN THE GFS FRONTAL
TROF...BUT KEPT THE SAME GENERAL PRES CONFIGURATION AFTER
ADJUSTING THE FRONTAL POSITION TO THE S ON DAY 4 FROM OUR UPDATED
PRELIM. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY FRONTAL RAINS STILL EXPECTED...JUST NOT
THE EXAGGERATED BULLSEYES DEPICTED BY THE GFS.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Stephanie]

Thanks everyone for your help!

[EDR1222]

It is important to remember, as others have mentioned, long range forecasts are tricky and can be very challenging. Long term patters are a good tool to use to get a general idea, but sometimes it is all about timing when these storms come rolling along. A persistent ridge of high pressure for example could be slightly eroded by a short wave, which, depending on storm location, could allow the storm to move far enough north to get caught in the westerlies and deflected out to sea. In 04, the Bermuda high was strong, but a late season cold front came very far south and led Charley on an October like path SW to NE across Florida. The front was well forecasted in that case. Anything can happen and usually does when it comes to hurricanes and where they go