LESSER ANTILLES WAVE

[mike815]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 21N
WITH SOME TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
59W-64W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT TROUGH MONDAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. A WIND
SURGE IS FOLLOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.


SOMETHING TO WATCH...YES? HMMMMM DOES MY HERO HAVE ANYTHING TO POST ABOUT IT? fLORIDAWX?

[Normandy]

? Your hero ?

[mike815]

yes he is. is there a problem? anyways thats not what this topic is for

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for the nice comments however there are better people in this world you can call your hero.

Looks like there is little to no windshear in the Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Anything is possible Mike815.

Keep on truckin little buddy.

[mike815]

YEAH!!!!
thanks for your imput hero.

[stormtruth]

[SouthFloridawx]

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM SAINT VINCENT TO GUADELOUPE...AND FROM ST.KITTS AND NEVIS
TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST WEST OF ANGUILLA...AND FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 64W AND 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

[mike815]

still an interesting wave probably wont form but lookin interestin tonight

[TheEuropean]

interesting with some more convection this morning:



I think we can't rule out some slow development of this system, but shear is high north of Hispanola.

[ts_kakolina]

Radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico

[bvigal]

Here's a still shot of radar from 5:20am. Can see most of the bad squalls, which passed through with up to 40kt gusts, are over the coastal waters by this time.

[jusforsean]

Fox has us "watching for development on this one too"

[O Town]

Nice blow up of convection from the 11 am IR.

[HURAKAN]

Nice blow up of convection from the 11 am IR.

I hope we can get some rain from this wave, just rain!!! Well, maybe a weak Ernesto won't hurt (that's if the CV Wave develops first).

[z-bail]

This thing is blowing up but no one seems to be talking about it... Does anyone with some experience have any idea what this is forecast to do?

[O Town]

I was thinking the same thing z-bail. Looks pretty good as far as convection goes. Heres the TWO.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 072127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART



[/b]

[marcane_1973]

Lets compare the 2. This wave look sooooo much better than 91L and the outflow has improved 100%. This is the best this wave has looked. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[Normandy]

Eh.
91L has a closed surface circulation.
What does this one have?

[marcane_1973]

Eh.
91L has a closed surface circulation.
What does this one have?

That is IF it even has one now.

[ROCK]

Eh.
91L has a closed surface circulation.
What does this one have?

Alot of convection... wave interaction with the ULL to its NE. Providing lift or ventilation however you call it....thats about it.