Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nope

[jasons2k]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

None of the genesis paramaters in the tropical Atlantic MDR have been particularly unfavorable for any length of time. WVBT has been a bit above normal, perhaps signifying a little more drying/subsidence than normal. However, shear and instability haven't looked particularly detrimental to TC genesis.

In fact, the current formation probability is well above the climo.

I don't need to remind ya that it's only 6 August, do I?

Certainly looks to ramp-up soon.

[tropicsPR]

This is just amazing on how unfaverable the Atlantic is turning out to be. I think the SOI talking about on the other thread being neg. Which makes everything like a el nino have something to do with it.

That's why I"m wondering how the heck do any hurricanes suppose to develop this year in the Atlantic? And where's the evidence that this shear and hostile conditions will even decrease as time goes on??

I'm starting to get a bit skeptical about this season myelf now. I just don't see any evidence that things are changing and conditions are getting better.

Relax and wait. Here in the islands of the Caribbean we have learned that the atmosphere in the tropics has a high degree of unpredictability and may turn explosive at any moment.

[AnnularCane]

HA! Last year after Irene everyone was complaining about the season being "extremely unfavorable for development". I'm not falling for that again.

I remember people complaining about how boring it was in the tropics, even DURING Irene.

[miamicanes177]

I agree with the pro mets on here. This really has not shown signs of significant organization and SSD did not even post a dvorak number tonight.

[Brent]

If those model tracks verify it's going to be a very busy mid to late week and next weekend.

[cycloneye]

I agree with the pro mets on here. This really has not shown signs of significant organization and SSD did not even post a dvorak number tonight.

But then why NHC says organization is improving and a TD could form in the next day or so?

[caneman]

With all due respect to the Pro Mets on here. I think I'll go with this and the fact that we're entering Ramp up time.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION

AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[miamicanes177]

Well I'm not a pro or anything but it looks to be getting sheared. The maps show a low shear enviornment ahead, but we all know how fast that can change. I just don't see significant improvement as of now. That could and likely will change.

[Normandy]

Yea from what im seeing its getting better organized.
And for those who say its "poorly" organized, like somebody else said, place this in the gulf its a depression.

[Jim Cantore]

Uhoh. Right when Chris is almost gone we have another Invest.

almost?

[destro34]

i just do not belive on astrology and bla,bla,bla,.....i just get my data from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov ...analize it and then and only then i get my conclutions...so my friends we are getting just close to peak of the season..so do not say ..this one will not hit me..no,no,no....you better have your plan at hands, because it only take one to make your day...

so keep it simple, and read this.. most of the storm or cane that had hit us down here in the islands are from august 15 to october 30/31, so do not put your guard down, and keep watching...if nothing happend that ok..but do not drop your weapon, just because the enemy is not firing at you...it is an old say on my unit .
so, i am not writing this season off, i would be a little bambino if i do so..

[Brent]

Yea from what im seeing its getting better organized.
And for those who say its "poorly" organized, like somebody else said, place this in the gulf its a depression.

It defintely looks better than earlier IMO...

[miamicanes177]

I'm not sure if this was posted but the 00Z intensity guidance for those that have not seen: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[ConvergenceZone]

gosh reading all the posts before 10:30 outlook you'd think the season had ended. Come on people. This season is right on track for a normal season. And it could be that alot more activity will come later making it an above average season.

Nobody said the season is ending, it's more like "show me the evidence, that the conditions will start improving soon". It just seems to be that there's alot more out there to disrupt the storms than I'm use to seeing(and no I"m not speaking of last year)...

[caneman]

gosh reading all the posts before 10:30 outlook you'd think the season had ended. Come on people. This season is right on track for a normal season. And it could be that alot more activity will come later making it an above average season.

Nobody said the season is ending, it's more like "show me the evidence, that the conditions will start improving soon". It just seems to be that there's alot more out there to disrupt the storms than I'm use to seeing(and no I"m not speaking of last year)...

Climatology is evidence. Worry about it in September if we're below average.

[destro34]

convergencezone look :


do a little research ,and you will see that most of the cane and storm formed from august 15 up....my son was asking me the same thing about the season, so we got a software called eyes of the storm, and look we brought mosf of the storms from 1992 to 2005, and 85 % of them happend when we thought the season was dead due to shearing condition, worng sst (cool water),el nino,...and then evrything changed!!!



then my brother in law, which is good at number brought out an statistic formula,and we found out that , season like the one we are watching now, are most dangerous, naturally, making clear that statistic are not so exact , with a margin of 25.7 % of error..but the results were unbeliveble!!


do your research use some numbers and you will see the evidence you are looking for...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Uhoh. Right when Chris is almost gone we have another Invest.

almost?

Well, I wrote that earlier.

And I tend to be very cautious when writing systems off.

[Blown Away]

TWC tropical update hinting towards a NW turn before the islands. So maybe this will be a fish.

[HurricaneJim]

Starting to look interesting on visual sat this evening before sundown...

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers