Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#281 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:07 pm

The LLC looks to be moving under that new burst of convection. Which means the system is becoming stacked through its lower and upper layers. Also the convection ahead of it is weaking. Still you can see shear over it but its moving little by little northward. Which is getting it out of the eastly shear.

I'm sorry for saying that this season was unfaverable. Its not really unfaverable just that I'm bored in can't wait.
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#282 Postby Normandy » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:08 pm

^ Cosign.
Its close imo.
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#283 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:13 pm

NHC wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 070221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

The fact that forecaster Franklin (and Mainelli) is writing this should mean something. They are now on to the "could become a depression during the next day or so" from the "could get better organized and slowly develop".
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#284 Postby HurricaneJim » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:14 pm

It's gonna drift over some very favorable SSTs in the next 24-48....I think that's when we're going to see something develop. And it's got favorable SSTs the whole rest of the way, with the ridge keeping it south...just like the models are saying.


Jim
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#285 Postby HurricaneJim » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:15 pm

If they're saying could, then it probably means will....


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#286 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:15 pm

HurricaneJim wrote:It's gonna drift over some very favorable SSTs in the next 24-48....I think that's when we're going to see something develop. And it's got favorable SSTs the whole rest of the way, with the ridge keeping it south...just like the models are saying.


Jim
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Also Jim it'll be moving into a more favorable shear environment.
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#287 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:19 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
NHC wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 070221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

The fact that forecaster Franklin (and Mainelli) is writing this should mean something. They are now on to the "could become a depression during the next day or so" from the "could get better organized and slowly develop".


FWIW, Franklin probably had very little to do with this bulletin. Most likely, Mainelli wrote the bulletin and Franklin gave it a quick "sanity" check.

Then again, most people here tend to take TWOs for more than they are worth. Some are reading between the lines when there isn't anything to read.
Last edited by senorpepr on Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#288 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:19 pm

Cyclenall wrote:They are now on to the "could become a depression during the next day or so" from the "could get better organized and slowly develop".
I'll be very surprised if it's not at least a depression by Monday AM, it certainly looks like it's trying to organize very quickly. Here is a great view of it:

Link


EDIT: Made URL shortcut to limit scrolling and boost forum morale. -senorpepr.
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#289 Postby HurricaneJim » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:23 pm

That's a very nice image. On static visual you can see it too. It smells like 'Cane.

No guarentees in the world of weather, but the senses are aroused with this one.

Just looked at the full "Global Image" and you can see that leading convection to the NW of the center really cap off when it hits the leading edge of the warm water.




Jim
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Last edited by HurricaneJim on Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#290 Postby boca » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:28 pm

Hurrilurker were did you get that link really never seen anything like that before on sat. KInd of like a micro image in motion.
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#291 Postby mike815 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:28 pm

yea i know what your sayin it feels like this one could be fairly significant
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#292 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:33 pm

senorpepr wrote:FWIW, Franklin probably had very little to do with this bulletin. Most likely, Mainelli wrote the bulletin and Franklin gave it a quick "sanity" check.

I had no idea that Mainelli was writing these things. Well no wonder why it didn't sound like Franklin, it wasn't him! But Mainelli did change what he was saying though.

Then again, most people here tend to take TWOs for more than they are worth. Some are reading between the lines when there isn't anything to read.

I think they are worth something, just a heads up on what the wave is doing.

No guarentees in the world of weather, but the senses are aroused with this one.

My senses were aroused with Chris and look what happened.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#293 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:35 pm

Ouch that hurts the computer....
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#294 Postby HurricaneJim » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:39 pm

Chris had me fired for a day ro so as well, but then Stu Robinson at http://www.UKWeatherworld.co.uk told me it was going to fly to pieces and crash into Cuba and that was the end of that.

Chris also wasn't that big and it had a lot of obstacles in front of and around it. This thing just seems a bit bigger and heading right into it's element with a lot of open, hot water to get going over if it wants to.

Like all of them, we'll see.

I don't know, seeing Chris get chopped like that was kind of worth it. ;-)

Jim
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#295 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:42 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Then again, most people here tend to take TWOs for more than they are worth. Some are reading between the lines when there isn't anything to read.


Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression. No reason to call Aunt Susie... believe it or not, the forecasters occasionally adjust their bulletins so they don't sound like a broken record. ...and trust me, they don't go about putting hidden messages into the TWOs. Thinking that way is as silly as reading a forecast by greatone.
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#296 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:58 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Then again, most people here tend to take TWOs for more than they are worth. Some are reading between the lines when there isn't anything to read.


Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression. No reason to call Aunt Susie... believe it or not, the forecasters occasionally adjust their bulletins so they don't sound like a broken record. ...and trust me, they don't go about putting hidden messages into the TWOs. Thinking that way is as silly as reading a forecast by greatone.

Your telling me things I already know. :) Why are you making it look like I got really excited?
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#297 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:58 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression.
Well they did not adjust one adjective. And, yes, the 1030pm TWO was more bullish than the 530pm outlook. At 530 they said, "slow development is possible over the next couple of days". At 1030 they said, "the system continues to improve in organization and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so". So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make. Nevertheless, they were indeed more bullish in their latest update.
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#298 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 06, 2006 11:05 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Then again, most people here tend to take TWOs for more than they are worth. Some are reading between the lines when there isn't anything to read.


Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression. No reason to call Aunt Susie... believe it or not, the forecasters occasionally adjust their bulletins so they don't sound like a broken record. ...and trust me, they don't go about putting hidden messages into the TWOs. Thinking that way is as silly as reading a forecast by greatone.

Your telling me things I already know. :) Why are you making it look like I got really excited?


I'm not saying anything about you. I'm just pointing out that people get a little too excited for absolutely nothing.
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#299 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 06, 2006 11:06 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression.
Well they did not adjust one adjective. And, yes, the 1030pm TWO was more bullish than the 530pm outlook. At 530 they said, "slow development is possible over the next couple of days". At 1030 they said, "the system continues to improve in organization and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so". So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make. Nevertheless, they were indeed more bullish in their latest update.


I realize this. I'm just saying that people tend to get excite and read between the lines when there is nothing to read.
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#300 Postby stormtruth » Sun Aug 06, 2006 11:22 pm

senorpepr wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Well, it's true. People moisten their pants because a forecaster adjusted one adjective.

"OMG... they said 'could become a depression' instead of 'possibly become a dperssion'... that means this will be our next depression." No... it means exactly what it means: it "could" become a depression.
Well they did not adjust one adjective. And, yes, the 1030pm TWO was more bullish than the 530pm outlook. At 530 they said, "slow development is possible over the next couple of days". At 1030 they said, "the system continues to improve in organization and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so". So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make. Nevertheless, they were indeed more bullish in their latest update.


I realize this. I'm just saying that people tend to get excite and read between the lines when there is nothing to read.


But why not wait for a true example to make that point instead of using an example where the NHC was actually being more bullish?
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