Pacific cooler now

[hurricanetrack]

I know this is a just a daily snap-shot of SST anomalies, but the Pacific has cooled some in areas where it was really warming up as of late.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

And- the Atlantic is warming up in the deep tropics- at least from being cooler than normal over a large area. May be something, may be nothing. We're about to find out how all of this plays out.

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think it means much. You have to look at subsurface SSTs to see part of the bigger picture. SST anomalies need to be looked at, too. Other synoptics need to be looked at, too. When you do this, we are still on track for a weak to moderate El Nino - possibly a bit stronger - by the end of the year.

The Navy SSTs map can be somewhat inaccurate at times, too.

[hurricanetrack]

Let's see what the NHC Reynolds map looks like in another week- right before we hit the traditional big climb towards the peak of the season. I have not seen a recent subsurface map but at least the Navy's map today shows that the warming trend has slowed and reversed in some areas. I do not think we will see an El Nino this year- not one of any significance. All of those long range computer models won't be wrong all at once. Though some did suggest El Nino- most do not. This could simply be a blip and the overwhelming heat in the North Atlantic will offset the limited warmth in the Pacific.

[MiamiensisWx]

Let's see what the NHC Reynolds map looks like in another week- right before we hit the traditional big climb towards the peak of the season. I have not seen a recent subsurface map but at least the Navy's map today shows that the warming trend has slowed and reversed in some areas. I do not think we will see an El Nino this year- not one of any significance. All of those long range computer models won't be wrong all at once. Though some did suggest El Nino- most do not. This could simply be a blip and the overwhelming heat in the North Atlantic will offset the limited warmth in the Pacific.

Well, the SOI has reached a low point earlier today of roughly -59 to -61 (negative) after dropping in general for a few weeks on a steady trend. Although it is likely to rise again, that sign, along with other factors, favor an El Nino at the end of the year.

[deltadog03]

el nino is coming.....period. The UKMET office should get the credit that they were the first ones to make this forecast.

[wxmann_91]

I think that we are headed toward a Nino.

[hurricanetrack]

One thing is for sure, we will see. By November 30, we will know for sure if there is an official El Nino declared. Still, with all that warm water north of 30 degrees in the Atlantic, I would be surprised to see a slow season. The warm water has to go somewhere and hurricanes are a great way to take care of that.

[wxmann_91]

Well I think that warm water is a bad sign for hurricanes. For one is signals a strong Bermuda High which increases wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic, and two the cool waters in the Tropical Atlantic mean that there's not a lot of heat to be transferred to the Poles (less canes).