Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Bailey1777]

Yeah that sounds about right and let's be real, out here they don't have to put a rush on upgrading. As far as the ULL my understanding is the shear could wreak havok on it.

[SouthFloridawx]

One thing to keep an eye on the upper low just south of 25N and between 50W and 55W. It looks like it is trying to drop slowly south It may have some influence down the road. It doesn't look like the 00z GFS initialized that feature well either. Surprise, surprise.

How would that impact it?

My thinking is, if it develops slowly, it'll keep going westward and probably not recurve. I'm thinking TD 4 by Tuesday at the latest.

I've been trying to say that all day long. See if the ULL moves far enough south it could put a little hamper on this system but, GFS indicates the ULL will move back towards the north. It may and may not be a factor.

Low to mid level stearing flow which you would want to look at until the storm gets more developed is east to west.

We'll probably see a westward movement for the next 72 hours and then on a more wnw course into the NE Caribbean Sea or possibly end up into the southern Bahamas and Northern Islands.

Just IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Debby the dud http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Hurrilurker]

Hurrilurker were did you get that link really never seen anything like that before on sat. KInd of like a micro image in motion.

I'm not really sure where I got the link, it was just one of the ones in my bookmarks...I may have even gotten it off of this board somewhere. But I like the view it provides, you can see most of the Atlantic but also zoom in, and with high detail. The Cape Verde zone is what it's best for, as it gives you 1-hr pics coming off Africa instead of the 6-hr windows you get with the METEOSAT-8.

EDIT: minor edits for clarity.

[Normandy]

Yep sound the bells for this one.
Thats a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck with that banding and deep convection its pretty close to a tropical storm. But this is not the gulf!

[Brent]

Debby the dud http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

That sucked.

[MWatkins]

Well to me...and I am sure I am not the first to put this in here...

1. The system is better organized than it was yesterday and is almost surely a tropical depression. QScat shows a pretty stretched system with multiple vorticies along the wave as of this afternoon:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Since then deep thunderstorms have developed along the axis the NHC had been tracking. No recent SSMI or TRMM pases are available but...it looks like it has closed off.

2. Easterly shear is impacting the system. Not sure how much this is getting in the way right now...but most of the convective activity is off to the west of the apparent center.

Both of these factors suggest we will probably have a TD sometime in the next 24 hours, and development will be slow but will occur over the next few days.

MW

Well Mike, you beat me to the punch. I was about to make almost the exact same post.

This definitely looks like a TD now. Debby should come out of this as the shear overall does not look hostile for gradual development in at least the short term.

One thing to keep an eye on the upper low just south of 25N and between 50W and 55W. It looks like it is trying to drop slowly south It may have some influence down the road. It doesn't look like the 00z GFS initialized that feature well either. Surprise, surprise.

Hey Jason,

Yep...that ULL could be a problem. Perhaps...and I havent seen the actual fields yet...this is the reason the model goes completely bananas at 90 hours:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06080705

36 knots? Come on. Of course...once again...the model runs agains the GFS background...so details details. It will even out after verification is complete.

I feel better knowing we are nearly on the same page.

MW

[Bailey1777]

It looks like it could be a rather large storm once it gets going.

[mtm4319]

Debby the dud http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

That sucked.

Not as much as Chris. The track was nearly the same, but it was weaker.

Interesting thing, if the system off NC (it might have been the previous 91L) had closed off a circulation, we'd have been calling Chris "Debby", and everyone would have screamed "omg coincidence" from the moment it started to decouple.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Debby has a history of being nothing more then a Dud!

[mtm4319]

Debby has a history of being nothing more then a Dud!

Not the 1988 version. It actually made it all the way across Mexico -- not the puny little isthmus part either.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/DEBBY/track.gif

And the 1982 version was a cat-4 fish, although it probably gave Newfoundland and Bermuda some fringe effects.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1982/DEBBY/track.gif

[wxmann_91]

Debby has a history of being nothing more then a Dud!

Well, I know this is just gut, but I think this year's Debby will be a big one.

[gilbert88]

Humm.. I think the historical "dud" name is Chris (and to a lesser extent, Beryl). I think it will never become a strong storm...

[SouthFloridawx]

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N37W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 41W. ANOTHER SUCH MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
THE AREA FORMERLY BETWEEN 41W AND 43W HAS DISSIPATED.

[Bailey1777]

pretty boring update.

[mike815]

yea it is but today could still be a big day

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

OMG...Any thoughts on the GFDL 0600Z run?

[Rainband]

It seems to have a south Bias this season

[gilbert88]

OMG...Any thoughts on the GFDL 0600Z run?

LOL... right into Panama.