Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I disagree but your welcome to your option. There is a tight LLC on visible this morning with a buoy/ship to the east reporting southly winds. Which support that there is a LLC. Convection is starting to fire over the north and east side over the last few frames. Yes there still shear but so did Alberto with every other system so far this season.

This LLC looks very good this is NO area of weak disorganized low pressure. Also it has banding features forming on the eastern side. So I say its closed to Td right now if not one already. Can you show me a map or some data that supports this as a disorganized area of low pressure...That would be very welcomed.

[Lowpressure]

What appeared to be a large system yesterday has become quite compact. Looks like another small and unpredictable system that can/will be influenced by many factors.

[caneman]

From the 8:00 discussion

1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW
CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree. Over the last few frames convection is starting to spread over to the eastern side. Lets see if it sticks.

[Derek Ortt]

its disorganized as the convection remains well west of the center. That is a very disorganized area of low-pressure

[Nimbus]

The ULL that is diving southwest may pass through west in front of 91L before 91L reaches the caribbean. Recent run of the GFDL showed 91L being pulled south by something, perhaps the eastern extent of a ridge or the GFDL thinks 91L will end up on the western side of the ULL?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see through out today...But the last few frames shows the convection firing over the center. So where would you place the center? I place it at 12.2/40.2.

[cycloneye]

07/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD is back with t numbers above the too weak.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

T numbers close to my center thinking.

[caneman]

its disorganized as the convection remains well west of the center. That is a very disorganized area of low-pressure

Respectfully, are you sure we're looking at the same system. The convection is over or very near the supposed center. It's close to a TD now.

[Thunder44]

I believe there is MLC at about 12N 40.5W moving west. The convection overall has diminished since last night. I don't see any low-level clouds south of the center moving from west to east, which would indicate a LLC. I don't believe this a TD yet.

[cycloneye]

I believe there is MLC at about 12N 40.5W moving west. The convection overall has diminished since last night. I don't see any low-level clouds south of the center moving from west to east, which would indicate a LLC. I don't believe this a TD yet.

Agree with that,and SSD sat estimates agree with that 1.0.That may change in the next 12 hours but as of this morning it's not a TD.

[wxman57]

I thought y'all might want to see a high-res McIDAS shot of the low. I'd put the center near 12.1N/40.9W. 24-hour movement is to the west at 16.9 kts.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby1.gif

[caneman]

I believe there is MLC at about 12N 40.5W moving west. The convection overall has diminished since last night. I don't see any low-level clouds south of the center moving from west to east, which would indicate a LLC. I don't believe this a TD yet.

Agree with that,and SSD sat estimates agree with that 1.0.That may change in the next 12 hours but as of this morning it's not a TD.

Agree with that too but hardly disorganized. Looks like a compact system.

[Sanibel]

The system is clearly under cyclogenesis with an easterly shear.

It is just a matter if conditions sap it like they did Chris.

[x-y-no]

its disorganized as the convection remains well west of the center. That is a very disorganized area of low-pressure

Respectfully, are you sure we're looking at the same system. The convection is over or very near the supposed center. It's close to a TD now.

I agree with Derek. The "center" (I use that term loosely since I don't see a closed circulation) is trailing behind all the convection.

This isn't well organized at all yet.

[x-y-no]

Hey wxman57:

In naming that image "debby1.gif" are you making a prediction?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a good look at a very good visible loop of this. The convection it doe's have is right over the center. Maybe displaced to the western side...But its trying.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[caneman]

its disorganized as the convection remains well west of the center. That is a very disorganized area of low-pressure

Respectfully, are you sure we're looking at the same system. The convection is over or very near the supposed center. It's close to a TD now.

I agree with Derek. The "center" (I use that term loosely since I don't see a closed circulation) is trailing behind all the convection.

This isn't well organized at all yet.

I've seen worse named/numbered TD's. And IMO it's closer to a depression than very disorganized. Time will tell but I like my chances.

[Thunder44]

Take a good look at a very good visible loop of this. The convection it doe's have is right over the center. Maybe displaced to the western side...But its trying.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I do see some banding features now around the MLC, which is probably why T numbers are up, but still no LLC.