Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SWFLA_CANE]

WXMANN57...would the strength of the system effect the track...For example if it stays week or does not develop it would go west and if it strengthens it may go more north west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z track and intensity forecasts:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

I wonder why all these models seems so far north?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z track and intensity forecasts:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

I wonder why all these models seems so far north?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Maybe is as a result of the upper level low that is racing toward the southeast at the same speed as Invest 91L

[wxman57]

WXMANN57...would the strength of the system effect the track...For example if it stays week or does not develop it would go west and if it strengthens it may go more north west.

It looks like the stronger it gets, the more westerly the mid to uper-level steering currents. Of course, I'm only going by what the GFS is predicting.

[SWFLA_CANE]

WXMANN57...would the strength of the system effect the track...For example if it stays week or does not develop it would go west and if it strengthens it may go more north west.

It looks like the stronger it gets, the more westerly the mid to uper-level steering currents. Of course, I'm only going by what the GFS is predicting.

thanks for the info

[miamicanes177]

Jeff Masters believes it could become a depression before strong wind shear from an ULL destroys it. shear shear shear shear. NEXT!

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[SouthFloridawx]

Not as much convection but, looking more organized than last night.

[MiamiensisWx]

Although structure has improved and mid-level to upper-level shear over the system has decreased, convective activity is still a bit too meager for an upgrade to a depression. The system is also somewhat shallow in general.

Based on low-level to mid-level steering, a west to west-northwest path through 60 hours or so appears likely...

Steering

[Derek Ortt]

may be time to start looking for another system. This one just does not have it, it appears

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

This system is heading for an area of more favorable Upper-Mid level shear it will be able to fire up some convection.

[Thunder44]

085
ABNT20 KNHC 071459
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[mtm4319]

11:30 TWO is early today--

ARGH-- beaten by seconds.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not to go off the topic, but it's interesting that the Azores low has been there for two days but hasn't been mentioned in the TWOs until now.

[Weatherboy1]

I'm sure, as others have mentioned, that the lack of convection is the reason for there being no upgrade. Other than that, the organizational structure seems pretty solid ... just need persistent convection for 12-24 hours over the center to get the TD go ahead. As for future path past a coupel days out, far too many variables as far as I'm concerned. Generally W to WNW for the foreseeable future -- then we'll just ahve to see.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm sure, as others have mentioned, that the lack of convection is the reason for there being no upgrade. Other than that, the organizational structure seems pretty solid ... just need persistent convection for 12-24 hours over the center to get the TD go ahead. As for future path past a coupel days out, far too many variables as far as I'm concerned. Generally W to WNW for the foreseeable future -- then we'll just ahve to see.

We'll start to see more convection associated with this system a little later today and overnight tonight as this is moving towards a more favorable environment as indicated by the NHC and the my post above. This system has encountered some Mid-Upper Level wind shear and as a result has kept the convection around the LLC to a minimum or off to the west. I believe as this moves farther west we'll see that convection we need start to kick off.

[Thunder44]

may be time to start looking for another system. This one just does not have it, it appears

Do you just it won't develop into a TD at all or will it not be significant TS?

[Derek Ortt]

I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time

[MortisFL]

I dont understand how you can completely go against the experts at NHC.

[StormWarning1]

Possible recon on Wednesday.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 13N AND 55W FOR 09/1800Z.