Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

#441 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:23 am

Because scientists in the same field often disagree
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5201
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#442 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:may be time to start looking for another system. This one just does not have it, it appears


what's new....
Seems to be the trend this year with no indication of changing anytime soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#443 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


Latest visible images starting to show some of the low-level clouds starting to shift from west to east. There seems to be a LLC forming now near 12N/41.5W. TPC seems willing to upgrade it to TD this afternoon if convection increases around center.
0 likes   

hcane27
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 7:33 pm

#444 Postby hcane27 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


It probably already has .... 8:05 am disc ....

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W

Marine offshore 11:30 am disc ...

SYNOPSIS...A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N42W THIS AFTERNOON
0 likes   

User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:

#445 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:32 am

I don't see any huge problems with shear in the near term. Looks like it still has a good day or so before that UL starts becoming a potential problem. The further south it stays, of course, the better.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#446 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:33 am

hcane27 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I thought this would have been a TD by now, then a TS by tonight, followed by a couple of days of slow intensification, then weakening due to shear.

This one is just taking forever to form and is running out of time


It probably already has .... 8:05 am disc ....

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W

Marine offshore 11:30 am disc ...

SYNOPSIS...A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N42W THIS AFTERNOON


That sure would indicate this invest is running on empty :D
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#447 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:35 am

Yeah, it's great......

......for a system with absolutely no deep convection.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windtalker1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 523
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Mesa, Arizona

#448 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:36 am

MortisFL wrote:I dont understand how you can completely go against the experts at NHC.
Seems like he always does.
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2016
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#449 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:38 am

MortisFL wrote:I dont understand how you can completely go against the experts at NHC.


i don't think what he is saying is much different than what they are saying

both are saying it may possibly turn into a TD
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#450 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:38 am

I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development
0 likes   

User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:

#451 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:42 am

As a general principle in science, it's fine to go against what others are saying, as long as you are prepared to back up your reasoning with sound arguments, and not just for the sake of being a contrarian (not saying anyone here is doing that, but worth keeping in mind).
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#452 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.
0 likes   

Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:

#453 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:45 am

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.


I'll second that.....
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#454 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:45 am

might be worth mentioning, but a new experimental version of SHIPS (I think available on the plots shown), does not intensify this for 3 days. However, SHIPS seems to be severely underdoing the shear at days 3-5
0 likes   

User avatar
fwbbreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

#455 Postby fwbbreeze » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:46 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol: touche

fwbbreeze
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#456 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:48 am

Derek Ortt wrote:might be worth mentioning, but a new experimental version of SHIPS (I think available on the plots shown), does not intensify this for 3 days. However, SHIPS seems to be severely underdoing the shear at days 3-5


GFS is retrograding that ULL back northward from 60 hours on.
0 likes   

caneman

#457 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 07, 2006 10:49 am

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I know of a lot of others who often go against NHC on this forum... only its when NHC says no development


:lol: :lol:

Good point.


Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#458 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:00 am

Image

In this graphic, is the NHC pointing to the tropical wave, or the Azores Low?
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#459 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:01 am

caneman wrote:Maybe but I've yet to see a good point as to why it won't develop and/or is terribly disorganized.



Ummm ... no deep convection ... worse upper air conditions ahead ...
0 likes   

O Town
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5205
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:37 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida 28°35'35"N 81°22'55"W

#460 Postby O Town » Mon Aug 07, 2006 11:04 am

I agree. It looks like it is withering away as far as convection goes.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Keldeo1997 and 20 guests