This morning on radio.. Miami is #1 most risky place to live

[tgenius]

I awoke to hear that a study has been performed and that Miami is the #1 most risky city to live in due to the fact its in the FL peninsula and is prone to hurricanes... gotta love them studies that depict the obvious

[CajunMama]

I'd be curious (and i know someone will find the info for me ) to know exactly how many times Miami has been hit and how does that compare to other cities that have been hit, such as P'cola, Gulfport/Biloxi, NO, Houston.

[MGC]

Nope, New Orleans is the most risky. Between hurricanes, which just killed over 1300 and the drug related gang killing, I'd say NO has Miami beat by a mile....MGC

[JonathanBelles]

id say hong kong or LA
jmo

[tgenius]

Nope, New Orleans is the most risky. Between hurricanes, which just killed over 1300 and the drug related gang killing, I'd say NO has Miami beat by a mile....MGC

It struck me as kind of weird, but they were making a big deal on the radio this morning about the outcome of the study.

[gtalum]

These kinds of studies come out all the time and are generally geared to selling something. I wouldn't pay it much heed.

[The Sandcrab]

Study was about natural disaster risk. Here's a link:

http://www.sustainlane.com/article/996/ ... s+Way.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Something tells me that this "study" is nothing more than sensationalism that implies Miami is overdue since, in the politically correct sense, Wilma was a brush and was a dud because it delivered Category One sustained winds that caused only minor inconveniences - just some 6,000,000 across southern and east-central Florida without power, thousands of pounds of debris, several thousand insurance claims, and only significantly damaged countless structures. Also, it ignores the fact that, historically into the present, downtown Miami has received few direct strikes from storms (whereas the Cape Fear area, in North Carolina, receives more in the line of true "direct" hits/strikes).

Let's compare...

DIRECT STRIKES ON MIAMI (DOWNTOWN AND VICINITY)...

1888, August - Cat. 3 (vicinity, may have been close to a direct strike)

1926, September - Cat. 4 (the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was a direct strike from the east-southeast)

DIRECT STRIKES ON CAPE FEAR, NORTH CAROLINA, AREA...

1996, July (Bertha) - Cat. 2

1996, August/September (Fran) - Cat. 3

1996, October (Josephine) - extratropical

1998, August (Bonnie) - Cat. 2

1999, September (Floyd) - Cat. 2

Those Cape Fear direct strikes don't even countb the numerous destructive brushes from other tropical cyclones/remnants!

Miami tends to get most of it's impacts from brushes (Irene/Wilma) or hits to the north or south (Frances/Jeanne/Andrew/Betsy).

Here's a good link for more track information.

In the end, this is little more than hype from the past two seasons. In the end, by lulling many into the "overdue" illness, many may take destructive Category One/Category Two sustained winds/storms like Wilma and tropical storms that spawn tornadoes like Mitch less seriously. This is something we DON'T want.

Why worry about what may happen in the future? Deal with the season at hand. Anyway, this study does NOTHING to enhance true hurricane awareness and preparedness.

By the way, it is also interesting to note that a greater eastern U.S. coast risk north of Florida, unless it involves New York City (which takes up the entire northeastern U.S. in the media's eye), seems to get less attention than threats to Florida. Typical media.

[Derek Ortt]

Careful

hits from the SW and south (such as Cleo) also need to be counted

The vast majority of Miami hurricanes come from the Caribbean, not the Atlantic

[tropicana]

I wonder if they get paid to actually participate in those studies.
And I wonder if by coming out with such a study, if they would actually believe that they think people will give it any credibility.

Remember the other day they came out with the *World's Happiest Country* study. Really, who actually has the time to study this. And how they can prove the results.

Ah well! Go Miami Go! lol

-justin-

[MiamiensisWx]

Careful

hits from the SW and south (such as Cleo) also need to be counted

The vast majority of Miami hurricanes come from the Caribbean, not the Atlantic

Yes, I was referring to and including hits from the south, south-southwest, and southwest, too. You'll see I've included Wilma and Irene (and Mitch) in there... I just picked a few of them to serve as examples in general, not all of them. I agree, though, that most of the Miami hurricane brushes/hits come from the south, south-southwest, and southwest.

I also have to add that I forgot to add/mention two direct strikes on downtown Miami vicinity - King (1950) and Cleo (1964). In addition, the October 1906 Category Three hurricane that hit the Keys brushed Miami on the way out from the south-southwest to southwest.

[DCA]

To my knowledge, the Great Miami Hurricane (1926) and Cleo were the only two "modern" major storms to directly strike the downtown area. The '26 storm came ashore likely 15 miles south (putting downtown in a bad spot!) and Cleo's eye moved directly over downtown.

King's eye was so small (ala Charley), that I do not think downtown Miami received much more than a good "pop." Areas down near Homestead were devastated.

That said, it is easy to imagine a storm similar to Andrew, the '47 Broward County storm, Donna, or the '28 Lake Okeechobee storm, etc, making landfall near the city of Miami. The damage would be the unimaginable part.

[tgenius]

To my knowledge, the Great Miami Hurricane (1926) and Cleo were the only two "modern" storms to directly strike the downtown area. The '26 storm came ashore likely 15 miles south (putting downtown in a bad spot!) and Cleo's eye moved directly over downtown.

King's eye was so small (ala Charley), that I do not think downtown Miami received much more than a good "pop." Areas down near Homestead were devastated.

That said, it is easy to imagine a storm similar to Andrew, the '47 Broward County storm, Donna, or the '28 Lake Okeechobee storm, etc, making landfall near the city of Miami. The damage would be the unimaginable part.

Andrew landfall 20-30 miles north would of leveled Miami... mark my words.

[Normandy]

^Yes it would have^
Miami Beach would have been blasted...those hotels facing the water would have been gutted/destroyed by Andrew's wind.

[MiamiensisWx]

To my knowledge, the Great Miami Hurricane (1926) and Cleo were the only two "modern" major storms to directly strike the downtown area. The '26 storm came ashore likely 15 miles south (putting downtown in a bad spot!) and Cleo's eye moved directly over downtown.

King's eye was so small (ala Charley), that I do not think downtown Miami received much more than a good "pop." Areas down near Homestead were devastated.

That said, it is easy to imagine a storm similar to Andrew, the '47 Broward County storm, Donna, or the '28 Lake Okeechobee storm, etc, making landfall near the city of Miami. The damage would be the unimaginable part.

Sorry to nitpick, but King did NOT strike Homestead. King struck downtown Miami nearly directly, with the eye passing between downtown and Miami Beach, brushing North Miami Beach. See King's track here for yourself to get a better idea...



King caused heavy destruction in both Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood and the Miami area. King also caused heavy erosion along the southeast and east-central Florida coast.

Just was clarifying on King's track. I believe it was also a borderline Category Two/Category Three or high-end Category Two at Florida landfall.

[DCA]

Cape Verde...absolutely correct. My mind was thinking the 1945 storm, but my keyboard gave me King. The '45 storm was a small ferocios storm that mainly affected then southern Dade County.

[MiamiensisWx]

Cape Verde...absolutely correct. My mind was thinking the 1945 storm, but my keyboard gave me King. The '45 storm was a small ferocios storm that mainly affected then southern Dade County.

Correct... the September 1945 storm you're thinking of made landfall in a very similar area - if not exactly - where Andrew made landfall near Homestead. The 1945 storm, like Andrew, was also a fairly small storm, making landfall south of Miami near Homestead as a middle to high-end Category Three hurricane. It came in, very likely as a Cape Verde-type hurricane, from the east-southeast to southeast.

[Frank2]

Florida was safer years ago, when the population was 1/4 what it is today (what it was when my family and I first arrived), but, it's become so crowded, that logistically it's a real problem, though those who make money from development seem not to care...

It's fine to have people move here, but, something should have been done to limit the population of each county, if nothing else...

I cringe everytime I see a satellite map that shows that gray concrete strip along the Southeast Florida coastline - or, how over-development looks from space...

Frank

[skysummit]

I don't know about anyone else down here, but I'd much rather live in or around Miami for a hurricane than in South Louisiana or the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

[Deb321]

Miami may be a high risk area to live in but after being hit 3 times in 18 months in Port St Lucie I thought it was pretty risky.