Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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clfenwi
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Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#1 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:32 pm

Thread #1

GFDL has become even more pessimistic

WHXX04 KWBC 071727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 40.3 275./17.1
6 12.1 41.3 282./10.3
12 12.4 42.6 280./13.0
18 12.5 43.8 274./12.1
24 12.9 45.5 286./16.7
30 13.1 46.8 276./12.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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caneman

Re: Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Threa

#2 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:34 pm

clfenwi wrote:Thread #1

GFDL has become even more pessimistic

WHXX04 KWBC 071727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 40.3 275./17.1
6 12.1 41.3 282./10.3
12 12.4 42.6 280./13.0
18 12.5 43.8 274./12.1
24 12.9 45.5 286./16.7
30 13.1 46.8 276./12.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Looks like they have the ULL doing its #
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#3 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:43 pm

seasons over
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#4 Postby tracyswfla » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:44 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:seasons over


I know you are kidding. But it would be nice to have a quiet season. The real estate market might pick up if we do!
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#5 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:45 pm

Yup no Debbie out of this one.
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#6 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:45 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
flhurricaneguy wrote:seasons over


I know you are kidding. But it would be nice to have a quiet season. The real estate market might pick up if we do!


and insurance might come back to florida
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#7 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:52 pm

Normandy wrote:Yup no Debbie out of this one.


Don't hold yourself to this to this one...It looking pretty good right now..
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#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:53 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Yup no Debbie out of this one.


Don't hold yourself to this to this one...It looking pretty good right now..


It has been under 10-20kts of shear in 12-24 hours it will be moving into a more favorable environment..
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:55 pm

Come on Debby...I will look at some data now.
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#10 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:55 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Yup no Debbie out of this one.


Don't hold yourself to this to this one...It looking pretty good right now..


I know i was being sarcastic
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#11 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:56 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Yup no Debbie out of this one.


Don't hold yourself to this to this one...It looking pretty good right now..


It has been under 10-20kts of shear in 12-24 hours it will be moving into a more favorable environment..


Kinda looks like Chris before he got going...Dry swirl to near cane...Without the same conculsion...
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Re: Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Threa

#12 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 07, 2006 12:58 pm

caneman wrote:
(GFDL model output snipped)

Looks like they have the ULL doing its #


Looks like it doesn't really string the system along far enough for the ULL to begin to affect it. It seems more like the model spins down the low (vice ripping it apart).

Of course, the run of the GFDL that was in Mr. Franklin's hand when TD3 formed dissipated the storm immediately...showing that the GFDL can be overly pessimistic at times. The trend of the past day though, of it forecasting a hurricane yesterday morning, then a tropical storm, then a shorter lived tropical storm, then this... is fairly persuasive.
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#13 Postby feederband » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:01 pm

fact789 wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
flhurricaneguy wrote:seasons over


I know you are kidding. But it would be nice to have a quiet season. The real estate market might pick up if we do!


and insurance might come back to florida


You now I know its where you live in Florida, but I close on a house tomorrow and found a policy for 850.00 on a 210,000..I did have to call about 20 companies though...Liberty Mutual is the company I got it with...But every company was offering or brokering out..I had some qoutes has high as $1800.00
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#14 Postby mvtrucking » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:03 pm

For the most part everything that has attempted to get going, has been snuffed out by shear, ULL's etc. It looks like a much quieter year this season.(So far, fingers crossed)Not that the season is over yet..
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#15 Postby gtalum » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:04 pm

feederband wrote:You now I know its where you live in Florida, but I close on a house tomorrow and found a policy for 850.00 on a 210,000..I did have to call about 20 companies though...Liberty Mutual is the company I got it with...But every company was offering or brokering out..I had some qoutes has high as $1800.00


It pays to shop around. I did and found a policy for much less than I was paying previously. I am with St. John's now.
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#16 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:09 pm

gtalum wrote:
feederband wrote:You now I know its where you live in Florida, but I close on a house tomorrow and found a policy for 850.00 on a 210,000..I did have to call about 20 companies though...Liberty Mutual is the company I got it with...But every company was offering or brokering out..I had some qoutes has high as $1800.00


It pays to shop around. I did and found a policy for much less than I was paying previously. I am with St. John's now.


I don't mean to squander but my boss has Liberty Mutual down here in Miami and after Wilma she found out that stuff that is supposed to be covered by her policy was being denied.... so she's not the happiest camper with them.
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#17 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:10 pm

Image
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#18 Postby mike815 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:11 pm

A lot of these posts in here today make no sense to me. The nhc says this is in good conditions or will be and that it could form today or tomorrow and i dont see that ull destroying it im really confused. Its like the NHC is saying one thing and all of u in here are saying otherwise.
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#19 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:13 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N40W...OR
ABOUT 1100 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:14 pm

That quickscat shows that this system has a LLC. Also convection is refiring over the LLC over the last hour or so. The shear appears to be not quite as strong as it was earlier. Lets see if we can get this upgraded.
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