Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stratosphere747]

This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

Why's that?

[flhurricaneguy]

Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject:



This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

how can you be so sure?

[skysummit]

This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

Dude you have no clue about that. Please people do not take that prediction seriously.

[mike815]

yea man no offense but just yesterday everyone was sayin rhis was goin into the careabbean

[cycloneye]

This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

That is a very Bold Statement.Anything to backup that?

[HURAKAN]

Covection is very shallow at the moment, but it has increased over the past few hours.

[Bailey1777]

My thoughts exactly. Back it up with your sound data!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject:



This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

how can you be so sure?

newbie..He will take his Lumps..LOL

[ConvergenceZone]

I'd say that IF it develops, it has a greater chance NOT to be a fish THAN to be a fish. ...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that convection can blow up over that center we should have td4 by 11pm. But if it can't then we wait longer.

[NONAME]

Convection isn't look to bad flaring up a little. I say it will be a Tropical depression by umm the time the NHC decide it is.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think its a Depression now...Gots its LLC, Convection(little) and nice rotation..Better than Chris looked in his final hrs..LOL

[Brent]

I think we'll have a TD at 11 if that convection continues to flare.

Oh and YAY! The floater got moved.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its a depression when recon gets into the system they will find a LLC. The nhc is just waiting for convection to blow up. Which is kind of a double standard but what can I do.

[mike815]

no wont need recon though i know what your sayin but the nhc seems confident

[Normandy]

For the ULL-killing-91L fans, at least gets its movement right. Its moving SW, not due S.

[Windspeed]

The models take this system right near where Chris was. Also - I find it amusing that 91L already has a lower pressure [1009mb] than Chris did during most of his miserable life.

If I am recalling correctly, Chris reached 1003mb when it was most "healthy" just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Chris was also imbedded within a surface pressure about 6-8mb above normal average on the southern axis of a strong surface high. It maintained its circulation quite well until its surface pressure got too close to background levels, devoid of convection, meeting its doom in the southern Bahamas.

91L has a moderately strong surface high ENE to its axis that's running around 1029mb. Pressures directly north of the system is probably somewhere between 1024-1026. There is a 1024 surface high around Bermuda. There should be a lower background pressure for whatever becomes of 91L versus the lower level conditions Chris encountered. 1009mb surface low isn't too shabby for a wave. This thing still has solid organization, it just needs convection and more defined westerly component on the southside to get those T numbers over 2.0. This still one of stronger systems we have had over the MDR this year, but overall it is still unimpressive versus waves around this time in 2004 and 2003 (not counting last year). I still think this becomes a depression and a tropical storm, but it will be sheered apart if it gets too stacked prior to encountering strong upper-level shear. It may actually be more of a threat if it manages to remain a weak/shallow system, slips wsw of the ULL, and makes it into the Eastern Caribbean late week. Things could get much more interesting then.

[Bailey1777]

New Dvorak 1.0 / 1.0

[Sanibel]

There's obviously an inhibiting environment preventing convection this year.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is 100% a fish... It wont even come close to the bahamas.

No one can know that at this stage of the game.