Experts: Katrina-type storm unlikely this year

[Trugunzn]

DENVER, Colorado (AP) -- Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University said Thursday that this year's hurricane season won't be as bad earlier predicted and said a monster storm like Katrina is unlikely.

"The probability of another Katrina-like event is very small," said Phillip Klotzbach, lead forecaster for the hurricane research team.

The researchers reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three.

There is, however, a considerably higher-than-average probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States this year, 73 percent. The average is 52 percent.

Researcher William Gray said Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures are not quite as warm and surface pressure is not quite as low, both factors in the decision to revise the forecast.

"Overall, we think the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical storm season will be somewhat active ... ," Klotzbach said. "This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast, although the possibility exists that any point along the U.S. coast could be affected."

Gray and his team says hurricane activity will continue to be above average for another 15 to 20 years.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami in May predicted 16 named storms in the Atlantic, six of them major hurricanes. As of Thursday, there have been three named storms.

Thirteen major hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin the past two years, seven of them striking the U.S. coast with devastating damage resulting from four of them in 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Klotzbach and Gray call for a total of 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, down by two from their prediction May 31. On average, there are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

For Florida and the East Coast, the probability of a storm landfall is 64 percent, compared with a long-term average of 31 percent.

From the Florida Panhandle eastward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 26 percent, compared with a long-term average of 30 percent.


Comments?? Do u agree?

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/03/h ... index.html

[Normandy]

LOL.
They act as if Katrina type events are common

[Brent]

LOL.
They act as if Katrina type events are common

Yeah... seriously.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's the Associated Press. Enough said.

[Cyclenall]

Katrina type storms are unlikely every single year. A storm that just happens to be a category 5 and is headed right towards New Orleans in 12 hours and is very large seems like a once in a 100 year event.

[Grease Monkey]

Mother nature enjoys proving everyone wrong.

[crazycajuncane]

Okay these researchers decide after 2 months have passed in the hurricane season that things won't be as active? I love when nature proves them wrong.

It only takes one big cane to tear up the gulf. I mean.... any one of us could write an article saying the same thing. I don't expect a Katrina-like Hurricane this year either. I wouldn't expect the worst possible scenario to develop every year.

Anyway.... it's easy to change forecasts in the middle of the Hurricane season. I wish they would came out on June 1st and said.... this will be an average year... I haven't heard that... all I've heard was how this year will be above average.

[CrazyC83]

I disagree. Even in below normal seasons, Katrina-like hurricanes are always possible. If, even for one day, shear dissipates over an eddy of extremely warm water, a monster could brew.

[crazycajuncane]

I disagree. Even in below normal seasons, Katrina-like hurricanes are always possible. If, even for one day, shear dissipates over an eddy of extremely warm water, a monster could brew.

I won't buy it. I don't see a Katrina-like hurricane developing every year.
Every year we are bound to have a big hurricane and yes it will do much damage, but put into the factor... death tolls, $$$ in damage... These things won't happen every year. In the cycle we are in I would say 4-5 years is a possibility. I thought Katrina was a 50+ year event?

[Cyclenall]

I thought Katrina was a 50+ year event?

On a canadian news station the night before Hurricane Katrina hit, the news reporter said it was a once in a 500 year event.

[crazycajuncane]

As far as the death toll went... and we'll never find out the actual death toll, because our government is going to hide the official numbers.... I've heard the death toll being reported is 1,800. The damage has been estimated at $81 billion, but economically speaking New Orleans has lost so much more.

A year after the storm hit there is still years of work ahead.

A Katrina-like Hurricane ..... there isn't much to compare it to; it's unique.

I don't think anything will touch Katrina for a long time to come, but there is a possibility for something in the neighborhood of it hitting. They don't happen evey year. 2004 was a crazy year and 2005 was even crazier, but to expect this every year is crazy.

[Steve]

>>I won't buy it. I don't see a Katrina-like hurricane developing every year.

There hadn't been one up until then with that scope of devastation. But it still wasn't the monster storm it could have been. What I find contradictory in the article was that on the one hand they said it was unlikely to have a Katrina-like storm again this year. But on the other hand, Dr. Gray et al are giving a 73% chance of an intense hurricane landfall. I suppose there's better than even money that a storm landfalls on a deserted or less-populated portion of the coast, but that's really playing a numbers game. If the 73% chance proves to be Houston, New York City, New Orleans, the VA-DC Metropolis or whatever, the event is still the same. Maybe they don't have levees breaking and the resulting flooding problems we had down here, but we also didn't see a Cat-5, only the remants of a Cat-5 (cat 5 storm surge). If a Cat 5 hits anywhere on the coast, it's gonna be disasterous at some level.

I don't get it - or maybe it's just that the comparison is kind of apples to pears or whatever. I doubt we see Katrina damage ($80B level) from a storm in 2006, but again, we've never seen that before 2005. And while all intense hurricanes are not created equally, you don't want to be a homeowner in the way.

Steve

[stormtruth]

I wonder if Klotzbach secretly thinks he is a better hurricane researcher than Dr. Gray is.

[crazycajuncane]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

All I can say is that you can't really compare Katrina to any other storm. I've been told by many that Katrina was not the worst possible scenario and I agree. You have to acknowledge that if not for the levee failures things would have been a lot different. People were walking the streets after Katrina hit... it wasn't until the late hours of the evening that the levees broke.

And then Katrina didn't hit New Orleans head-on. IMHO things were catastrophic, but it could have been even worse and I don't want to even think of that. I just hope that Houston runs if there is a Cat. 4 headed their way.

[vacanechaser]

As far as the death toll went... and we'll never find out the actual death toll, because our government is going to hide the official numbers.... I've heard the death toll being reported is 1,800. The damage has been estimated at $81 billion, but economically speaking New Orleans has lost so much more.

this comment is whats crazy... hide the death toll.... whatever... i guess you fit in with the nuts that think andrew killed hundreds and hundreds of people and the gov't covered that up too... i mean come on.... that is just a comment to stir things up and i guess i fell for it... ... thats just utter rubish....

happen every year... no way... what a lot of people fail to realize is that we need condityions to be perfect for those type storms.... perfect.... and that is just a rare event in an of its self... lets face it, if it were more likely, we would see more storms each year out of the 60+ waves that come off the african coast...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Regit]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

Well, I think you sort of disproved your own point. Things don't have to be perfect.

Katrina wasn't coming in at the worst possible angle, it was losing strength, the city had a tiny population at the time of impact (it had decreased by over 90% due to evacuations).

I don't think it would take much more than a Cat 1 hitting just perfectly or another Cat 3 hitting in the vicinity to flood New Orleans again.

But take into account how non-perfect the situation was in New Orleans and imagine what a big storm hitting using your criteria would do to an area.

People say Katrina was such a monster. It wasn't. It could have been a whole lot worse and it's important people don't lose track of this and think "Oh well, at least Katrina's as bad as it gets."

EDIT: I forgot to make my main point. It's important to realize that just because 2005 was so bad and Katrina was so bad, it doesn't mean it won't happen again, and it doesn't mean it won't happen soon.

[crazycajuncane]

As far as the death toll went... and we'll never find out the actual death toll, because our government is going to hide the official numbers.... I've heard the death toll being reported is 1,800. The damage has been estimated at $81 billion, but economically speaking New Orleans has lost so much more.

this comment is whats crazy... hide the death toll.... whatever... i guess you fit in with the nuts that think andrew killed hundreds and hundreds of people and the gov't covered that up too... i mean come on.... that is just a comment to stir things up and i guess i fell for it... ... thats just utter rubish....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

don't wanna get political.

[crazycajuncane]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

Well, I think you sort of disproved your own point. Things don't have to be perfect.

Yeah in a way I disproved it, but what I mean is... take away the levee failures and Hurricane Katrina is a whole other story.

Not every major city is shaped like a soup bowl. New Orleans took a bad break from a bad storm, but minus the levee failures.... things wouldn't have been as bad.

[george_r_1961]

From the Florida Panhandle eastward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 26 percent, compared with a long-term average of 30 percent.


Eastward???

[Regit]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

Well, I think you sort of disproved your own point. Things don't have to be perfect.

Yeah in a way I disproved it, but what I mean is... take away the levee failures and Hurricane Katrina is a whole other story.

Not every major city is shaped like a soup bowl. New Orleans took a bad break from a bad storm, but minus the levee failures.... things wouldn't have been as bad.

Yeah, but I think one of the problems is that we don't know what it looks like for a major city to get hit head on with a Cat 5.

People think "Andrew was a Cat 5 in Miami, Hugo was a Cat 4/5 in Charleston." Actually, neither of them, nor any similar hurricanes, hit the major metro area head on. I think people will be surprised when it finally happens.