The thing about this season so far is...........

[Myersgirl]

I hope this season is as quiet as a church mouse! Peoples lives, homes and ability to make a living hang in the balance. It is no fun to be without electricity and have your income depend on tourism. Hurricanes can be exciting, but no one gets their kicks in the "aftermath" .

[x-y-no]

Never said I didn't believe in global warming or the harm green house gases cause. What I said was irrationally linking it to hurricane activity in the face of overwhelming evidence that the two are not linked is crazy.

It's certainly news to me that there's "overwhelming evidence that the two are not linked," and I've read most of the research on the topic. Perhaps you can direct me to specifically what research you think provides this "overwhelming evidence."

My summary of the current state of the evidence would run something like this: While a good qualitative argument can be made for why global warming should increase tropical cyclone activity, the evidence so far is inconclusive, with the indication being that there is probably some linkage to more intense storms but probably no linkage to a greater total number of storms.

Nuts to me means people that jump on a concept without any understanding of what they are talking about simply to hear themselves or be heard.

OK, fine. But this phenomenon, in my experience, doesn't correlate with anything else. It's universal. It seems particularly prevalent on talk radio, cable tv news channels and even the halls of government. They abound in connection to every issue. Don't know why the ones chattering about AGW should annoy you so. If only by blind luck, at least they've managed to latch onto a serious issue.

[James]

The World Meteorological Association did suggest a possible link between global warming and increasing extreme weather events.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0703-05.htm

Also, one could speculate that the increasing numbers of CAT 4 and 5 storms worldwide is cause for concern. In the 1970's 20% of storms were reaching that threshold - by the 1990's that had increased to 35%. Now of course the intense storms are making more of an impact these days because of greatly increased developed areas, but even so the evidence is there that extreme weather is increasing in frequency and intensity.

Overall though, it's probably fairly hard to look at data on a year by year basis, on a small scale like that you won't find much correlation. On that level, 2006 is just the same as any one of the last 11 years really (bar 1995 and 2005). In the middle of 2006, we aren't really in a position to comment quite yet. Just my humble opinion.

[Aquawind]

LET's stop with the disrespectful generalizations and stick to the science related to the issue Everyone!

This is clearly a heated issue let's keep it civil and scientific versus rude and political!

[sealbach]

Hotter-burning sun warming the planet


By Michael Leidig
LONDON SUNDAY TELEGRAPH


The sun is burning hotter than usual, offering a possible explanation for global warming that needs to be weighed when proceeding with expensive efforts to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, Swiss and German scientists say.

"The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures," said Sami Solanki, the director of the renowned Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Gottingen, Germany, who led the research.

http://www.washtimes.com/world/20040718 ... -6334r.htm

I would think this could be a cause as well...it at least needs to be considered a major factor.

[x-y-no]

Hotter-burning sun warming the planet


By Michael Leidig
LONDON SUNDAY TELEGRAPH


The sun is burning hotter than usual, offering a possible explanation for global warming that needs to be weighed when proceeding with expensive efforts to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, Swiss and German scientists say.

"The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures," said Sami Solanki, the director of the renowned Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Gottingen, Germany, who led the research.

http://www.washtimes.com/world/20040718 ... -6334r.htm

I would think this could be a cause as well...it at least needs to be considered a major factor.

By my reading this is just confirming what was already understood, that a substantial part of the observed warming in the 19th and early 20th century was due to increased insolation.

But as your article states, solar brightness has not been increasing in recent years, even as we see the most rapid rate of warming ever observed.

[jasons2k]

Back to the original topic, there isn't much unusual about this season so far IMO, in fact most signs (except the SOI tanking) point to another busy season: