Experts: Katrina-type storm unlikely this year

[vacanechaser]

As far as the death toll went... and we'll never find out the actual death toll, because our government is going to hide the official numbers.... I've heard the death toll being reported is 1,800. The damage has been estimated at $81 billion, but economically speaking New Orleans has lost so much more.

this comment is whats crazy... hide the death toll.... whatever... i guess you fit in with the nuts that think andrew killed hundreds and hundreds of people and the gov't covered that up too... i mean come on.... that is just a comment to stir things up and i guess i fell for it... ... thats just utter rubish....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yea I believe it. I've been told by a first responder that during Hurricane Ivan they ordered refrigeration trucks to take out 71 bodies in escambia county. He said, "You'll never know the official death toll count."

I'm sure most people will turn the other cheek and call people fools who believe other than what the government puts out there. I'd be a fool to not take the word of a first responder that was on the scene when they wouldn't let people back for three days. He was the first man in. Go check the Hurricane Ivan death toll and come back and tell me if you believe that.

ohhh, dont think that i believe what the crooks in D.C tell me... i "aint" one of those... trust me... however, you cant always believe what you hear from those people either... not that they are liers, but when you are that close to the event, and dealing with it for days, you may have a tendency to over speculate...

i was at the eoc office during frances in fort pierce and herd them call for nearly 100 body bags and several trucks before the storm was over... when i asked about that, he said we have been told to always over do the expected total.. "you dont want to get caught with your pants down"... they really believed that there would only be a handful of deaths to deal with...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MiamiensisWx]

Yea I believe it. I've been told by a first responder that during Hurricane Ivan they ordered refrigeration trucks to take out 71 bodies in escambia county. He said, "You'll never know the official death toll count."

I'm sure most people will turn the other cheek and call people fools who believe other than what the government puts out there. I'd be a fool to not take the word of a first responder that was on the scene when they wouldn't let people back for three days. He was the first man in. Go check the Hurricane Ivan death toll and come back and tell me if you believe that.

Well, the first responder could very easily have misheard/misread the information, or the information he received could have easily been false or exagerrated. There could have been some more deaths than reported, maybe around 15 to 25 more deaths than reported in the official death toll, but very likely not more. Also, with few adequate communications immediately after the storm, how can you tell if the first death reports are true, false, exagerrated, or misinterpreted? It is likely it was a miscommunication, and that the death toll, while maybe a bit higher than official estimates, are nowhere close to the 71 bodies or more incorrectly reported.

[vacanechaser]

Yea I believe it. I've been told by a first responder that during Hurricane Ivan they ordered refrigeration trucks to take out 71 bodies in escambia county. He said, "You'll never know the official death toll count."

I'm sure most people will turn the other cheek and call people fools who believe other than what the government puts out there. I'd be a fool to not take the word of a first responder that was on the scene when they wouldn't let people back for three days. He was the first man in. Go check the Hurricane Ivan death toll and come back and tell me if you believe that.

Well, the first responder could very easily have misheard/misread the information, or the information he received could have easily been false or exagerrated. There could have been some more deaths than reported, maybe around 15 to 25 more deaths than reported in the official death toll, but very likely not more. Also, with few adequate communications immediately after the storm, how can you tell if the first death reports are true, false, exagerrated, or misinterpreted? It is likely it was a miscommunication, and that the death toll, while maybe a bit higher than official estimates, are nowhere close to the 71 bodies or more incorrectly reported.

my point exactly... you may know the person, or not... you may trust him... but that point is, in times like that, things get mis-communicated in a hurry... not to mention mis-understood... he may have been told by someone who was pulling their chain.... sorry, but i just cant buy it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MiamiensisWx]

my point exactly... you may know the person, or not... you may trust him... but that point is, in times like that, things get mis-communicated in a hurry... not to mention mis-understood... he may have been told by someone who was pulling their chain.... sorry, but i just cant buy it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree. The same thing likely happened after Andrew, resulting in the miscommunicated rumors and urban legends of hundreds of bodies being secretly buried. Those were likely rumors/misunderstandings/exagerrations/miscommunications as well.

[Pearl River]

First of all Klotzbach said

"The probability of another Katrina-like event is very small"

. He did not say it couldn't happen.

If you are using the death toll numbers from Robert Lindsey, he's a left wing journalist, and of course he is anti-government.

You can't take away the levee failures. Katrina caused them to happen. They happened during the storm, not after. Some people want to keep believing that the failures occurred after Katrina, they didn't.

Maybe we won't know the real numbers because there is the possibility some bodies may have been washed into the gulf and they are still discovering bodies during cleanup in the lower 9th ward.

[george_r_1961]

There were some outrageous rumors around here after Isabel. Most notable one was stating the power would be out for months here. After finally talking to a live person at Dominion power( had an acquaintance there at the time) he stated worst case scenario was 4 weeks in the urban areas. My home was restored in 5 days; and my job which was in an area that sustained significant damage was restored in 2 weeks.


Spreading rumors only adds to the tension in a storm affected area.

[crazycajuncane]

my point exactly... you may know the person, or not... you may trust him... but that point is, in times like that, things get mis-communicated in a hurry... not to mention mis-understood... he may have been told by someone who was pulling their chain.... sorry, but i just cant buy it...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree. The same thing likely happened after Andrew, resulting in the miscommunicated rumors and urban legends of hundreds of bodies being secretly buried. Those were likely rumors/misunderstandings/exagerrations/miscommunications as well.

BUT... what if it's true? As far as Katrina is concerned... did they estimate the bodies that washed away? I doubt it. Some bodies were said to never be found.

I've read many of articles and I do live just 2 1/2 hours from New Orleans. I personally know medics who went to New Orleans during the rescue missions. How can the original death toll be estimated at least 10k and the official death toll be 1,800?

The only reason the government would want to cover up death tolls is to cover their butts. That is a big reason to throw out certain deaths as not related to the Hurricane. Anyway... believe what you will. 100,000 people never left New Orleans for the Hurricane. If you do the math with those whoe were rescued and got out.... or stayed after they evacuated the whole city.... it doesn't add up.

[miamicanes177]

Katrina type storms are unlikely every single year. A storm that just happens to be a category 5 and is headed right towards New Orleans in 12 hours and is very large seems like a once in a 100 year event.

hurricane Camille, 1969

[Swimdude]

LOL.
They act as if Katrina type events are common

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Stormcenter]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

Well, I think you sort of disproved your own point. Things don't have to be perfect.

Yeah in a way I disproved it, but what I mean is... take away the levee failures and Hurricane Katrina is a whole other story.

Not every major city is shaped like a soup bowl. New Orleans took a bad break from a bad storm, but minus the levee failures.... things wouldn't have been as bad.

Very true.

[MiamiensisWx]

BUT... what if it's true? As far as Katrina is concerned... did they estimate the bodies that washed away? I doubt it. Some bodies were said to never be found.

I've read many of articles and I do live just 2 1/2 hours from New Orleans. I personally know medics who went to New Orleans during the rescue missions. How can the original death toll be estimated at least 10k and the official death toll be 1,800?

The only reason the government would want to cover up death tolls is to cover their butts. That is a big reason to throw out certain deaths as not related to the Hurricane. Anyway... believe what you will. 100,000 people never left New Orleans for the Hurricane. If you do the math with those whoe were rescued and got out.... or stayed after they evacuated the whole city.... it doesn't add up.

First of all, you can't compare the Katrina situation and death toll to Andrew, Ivan, and other storms. Every situation is different, and Katrina - like all storms - was a unique event and circumstances, along with other factors. Comparing the Katrina situation, in which there likely were many more deaths than reported due to lack of communication and reports, to other situations such as Andrew and Ivan to support conspiracy theories and higher death tolls than reported in other storms is outrageous, to say the least.

I agree that the Katrina death toll is certainly higher than reported; however, that does not come even close to justifying conspiracy theories or downplaying/hiding of the real number of deaths/death toll. Many areas of New Orleans had a lack of communication immediately during and following Katrina. That, along with the chaos and individual situations and issues (medical, food, water, etc.) that prevailed, likely resulted in the death toll and deaths not accurately being reported. Also, it was a DISASTER. Do you expect people, in the aftermath of any storm, to be concerned with accurately counting the number of deaths person by person and organizing the dead together and in medical reports? People will be more concerned about food, water, and many other issues such as transportation and insurance, as well as safety. All these issues are very critical in any type of event, including in such a large-scale flooding/surge situation that occurred in the New Orleans area; thus, it is no surprise that the death toll is undercounted. No conspiracy here!

Also, while I agree that the real Katrina death toll is likely around 1,800 or so, I do NOT think it is as high as 3,000, or even much higher than 2,500. I am basing this on the situation, as well as confirmed and unconfirmed reports of deaths and photos/what survivors here and elsewhere have stated. In other words, I have blended together the best sources to get a reliable estimate WITHOUT exagerrations.

[mempho]

Katrina type storms are unlikely every single year. A storm that just happens to be a category 5 and is headed right towards New Orleans in 12 hours and is very large seems like a once in a 100 year event.

I really don't think a large Cat 3 hitting in New Orleans that rare of an event. I believe the NHC Hurricane Preparedness website has a map with average expected return periods. New Orleans is somthing like 30-35 years, IIRC. I think NOLA lived on borrowed time for a long time...look at how many close calls they had. A Cat 5 hitting NOLA is dead-on might be a once in 500 year event, but a major is not even close to that. What's wild is that NOLA actually could count Katrina as another "close call."

Every city alont the northern Gulf coast is about the same, too. Ask the people in Pensacola if their nearly 90 year streak of not suffering a direct hit has turned around. Cities like Tampa are safer because of position, but even their day will will come.

Main point is this: some people come here and say "Where are all the Cat 5s?" The rest of us know better. Some people then come on and say Katrina was the worst storm in half a millineum. Trust me, there will be worse storms.

[Normandy]

^^ Its a good point.
Remember that Katrina did NOT directly strike New Orleans....so even a large major in the VICINITY of New Orleans can wreak havoc. If Ivan goes 40-50 miles west, We have katrina in 2004.

[vacanechaser]

BUT... what if it's true? As far as Katrina is concerned... did they estimate the bodies that washed away? I doubt it. Some bodies were said to never be found.

I've read many of articles and I do live just 2 1/2 hours from New Orleans. I personally know medics who went to New Orleans during the rescue missions. How can the original death toll be estimated at least 10k and the official death toll be 1,800?

The only reason the government would want to cover up death tolls is to cover their butts. That is a big reason to throw out certain deaths as not related to the Hurricane. Anyway... believe what you will. 100,000 people never left New Orleans for the Hurricane. If you do the math with those whoe were rescued and got out.... or stayed after they evacuated the whole city.... it doesn't add up.

First of all, you can't compare the Katrina situation and death toll to Andrew, Ivan, and other storms. Every situation is different, and Katrina - like all storms - was a unique event and circumstances, along with other factors. Comparing the Katrina situation, in which there likely were many more deaths than reported due to lack of communication and reports, to other situations such as Andrew and Ivan to support conspiracy theories and higher death tolls than reported in other storms is outrageous, to say the least.

I agree that the Katrina death toll is certainly higher than reported; however, that does not come even close to justifying conspiracy theories or downplaying/hiding of the real number of deaths/death toll. Many areas of New Orleans had a lack of communication immediately during and following Katrina. That, along with the chaos and individual situations and issues (medical, food, water, etc.) that prevailed, likely resulted in the death toll and deaths not accurately being reported. Also, it was a DISASTER. Do you expect people, in the aftermath of any storm, to be concerned with accurately counting the number of deaths person by person and organizing the dead together and in medical reports? People will be more concerned about food, water, and many other issues such as transportation and insurance, as well as safety. All these issues are very critical in any type of event, including in such a large-scale flooding/surge situation that occurred in the New Orleans area; thus, it is no surprise that the death toll is undercounted. No conspiracy here!

Also, while I agree that the real Katrina death toll is likely around 1,800 or so, I do NOT think it is as high as 3,000, or even much higher than 2,500. I am basing this on the situation, as well as confirmed and unconfirmed reports of deaths and photos/what survivors here and elsewhere have stated. In other words, I have blended together the best sources to get a reliable estimate WITHOUT exagerrations.

perfectly put.... awesome...

now to the point about the 10k reports first off.... who said that??? was it an official gov't official, or some jackass with a microphone standing out in the worst conditions possible where they themselves are at risk???? i ask, because i do not remember.... but my bet is, that was the reports by the media, who we know to be full of it and want the hype and ratings to go along with that.... remebr september 11??? those numbers were much higher to start, then as we got a better hendel on the situation and calmer heads prevailed, we saw that number drop big time.... Once again the media was still trying to hype the death toll in that event until it was put straight.... i dont believe everything the government tells me, but they are not all liers and cheats and crooks either.... just the clintons.... lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Pearl River]

The levee failures happened, you can't take that away, no matter how much you want too.

"Chocolate City" Nagin is the one who said there could have been 10,000 dead, not the federal government. He's the one who requested the 10,000 body bags.

100,000 without transportation was a guesstimate that was used for the hurricane Pam scenario. No one knows for sure.

[Javlin]

First of all Klotzbach said

"The probability of another Katrina-like event is very small"

. He did not say it couldn't happen.

If you are using the death toll numbers from Robert Lindsey, he's a left wing journalist, and of course he is anti-government.

You can't take away the levee failures. Katrina caused them to happen. They happened during the storm, not after. Some people want to keep believing that the failures occurred after Katrina, they didn't.

Maybe we won't know the real numbers because there is the possibility some bodies may have been washed into the gulf and they are still discovering bodies during cleanup in the lower 9th ward.

I do not know if this has been posted yet from LSU

http://www.nola.com/katrina/graphics/flashflood.swf

[vacanechaser]

The levee failures happened, you can't take that away, no matter how much you want too.

"Chocolate City" Nagin is the one who said there could have been 10,000 dead, not the federal government. He's the one who requested the 10,000 body bags.

100,000 without transportation was a guesstimate that was used for the hurricane Pam scenario. No one knows for sure.

no one said anything about the levee failures.... i sure didnt anyway... but that still does not make claims of more people dead than reported to accurate... if thats your point... it happened.. we know that and no one here has disputed that.... now the reasons for the failures maybe contested.... but that could be another issue all together....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MGC]

I don't think anyone has lied about the death toll from Katrina. Bodies are still being found, last week in NO East remains were found. To my knowledge, a hurricane the size and scope of Katrina has never hit the USA since the Europeans started to settle the area. This was the first time in the 300 year history of New Orleans that a hurricane flooded as much as it did. The western eyewall of Katrina did pass over extreme eastern New Orleans, so I'd call Katrina a direct hit.....MGC

[Normandy]

I don't think anyone has lied about the death toll from Katrina. Bodies are still being found, last week in NO East remains were found. To my knowledge, a hurricane the size and scope of Katrina has never hit the USA since the Europeans started to settle the area. This was the first time in the 300 year history of New Orleans that a hurricane flooded as much as it did. The western eyewall of Katrina did pass over extreme eastern New Orleans, so I'd call Katrina a direct hit.....MGC

You heard of Carla? Gave Galveston hurricane force winds and hit Matagorda.

My def of a direct hit is either having the eye pass over you, or experiencing the worse winds.

[timNms]

Well there are several factors that would lead up to another Katrina-like hurricane.

Big city, coming in at the right angle, not losing strength before it gets to the coast, speed, size, population of target...

Well, I think you sort of disproved your own point. Things don't have to be perfect.

Katrina wasn't coming in at the worst possible angle, it was losing strength, the city had a tiny population at the time of impact (it had decreased by over 90% due to evacuations).

I don't think it would take much more than a Cat 1 hitting just perfectly or another Cat 3 hitting in the vicinity to flood New Orleans again.

But take into account how non-perfect the situation was in New Orleans and imagine what a big storm hitting using your criteria would do to an area.

People say Katrina was such a monster. It wasn't. It could have been a whole lot worse and it's important people don't lose track of this and think "Oh well, at least Katrina's as bad as it gets."

EDIT: I forgot to make my main point. It's important to realize that just because 2005 was so bad and Katrina was so bad, it doesn't mean it won't happen again, and it doesn't mean it won't happen soon.

I think I understand what you are trying to say, but try telling the people along the MS GC and in NO who lost everthing they own, or lost loved ones, that Katrina wasn't as "bad as it can get".

I think you may have been trying to say something along the lines of "If I survived Katrina, I can survive any storm"...much the same train of thought many Camille survivors had...but found out differently.