a quick but very important question

[willjnewton]

as of right now is there a trough over the eastern united states coast???and if there is will that tend to increase the east coast chance of a hurricane landfall for this 2006 hurricane season???and how does the trough or mean trough of the eastern u.s. affect this 2006 hurricane season???, please explain and this will be the last new topic and I WILL LEAVE YOU GUYS ALONE I PROMISE THATS ONLY IF YOU ANSWER MY VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION THOUGH PLEASE

[wxwonder12]

Although your questions may be pertinent, you ask them as if it is a dier emergency that they are answered immediatly. You don't have to board up anything yet my friend.

[willjnewton]

but please answer my question though, then I will leave you guys alone I promise thankyou

[CajunMama]

wxwonder...keep the comments to yourself and if you can answer the question please do so.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I don't know about the trough.

But you are free to ask as many question as you like.

Unless there's some policy I didn't read about.

Whichi is possible. [uhoh]

[willjnewton]

but I just ask a question, please answer it and as I said before I promise I will leave you alone

[Aslkahuna]

It depends very much where the axis of the trough sets up and its orientation. If the axis is along the coast and the tilt is positive then the storms will be pushed out to sea. A negative tilt might enhance the chances of New England but not by much. If the axis is inland and the tilt is neutral to negative then the East Coast could be at risk. There are other factors as well such as amplitude and whether or not a shortwave is coming down into the mean trough position which can change the tilt and windflow direction on the front side of the trough. In 1995, a persistent trough in the East pretty much shielded the East Coast. In 1938, a deep trough drew the Long Island Express north and accelerated it into New England for their worse hit in modern history.

Steve

[willjnewton]

but based on what you are saying steve, where is the trough now and is the east coast at risk for this year???

[willjnewton]

hello, where is the trough now, and is the east coast at serious risk for this 2006 hurricane season Rather than the gulf coast hurricane season and please give me the reason why you think that please, thankyou

[willjnewton]

someone respond please

[Aslkahuna]

Well, to be perfectly honest about it, my concern right now doesn't include the East Coast as I don't live there and I'm paying more attention to the progress (or lack of same) of my monsoon and the EPAC season. As a result, I haven't been paying much attention to where the East Coast trough might be right now (or if there is even one there) nor the extended outlooks as to where it might be located in the future. I would suggest perusing the extended outlook discussions from CPC to see what their thinking might be on the subject.

Steve

[wxwonder12]

sorry

[willjnewton]

what conditions might have a effect on the east coast of the u.s. getting hit for this 2006 hurricane season more than the gulf of mexico, and based on the conditions and facts do you think that the east coast is at serious risk for this season or the gulf coast anyone???

[Stephanie]

hello, where is the trough now, and is the east coast at serious risk for this 2006 hurricane season Rather than the gulf coast hurricane season and please give me the reason why you think that please, thankyou

Will, the troughs don't tend to stick around for a long period of time - perhaps a few weeks at a time. There's a front that's extending from the upper New England area through the Midwest. It becomes stationary through the Plains. That's also where the main branch of the jet stream is running right now. I THINK I'm correct in saying that's also where the trough is so right now it has no bearing on any tropical systems that may be out there. There's no tropical systems anywhere near the East Coast right now and if there was I'd be looking right along with you. The hurricane season is a long one, we haven't gotten to the peak time yet which is early - mid September and there will be many troughs that will come and go by then.

I hope that helped!

[willjnewton]

but I just need the experts to answer this question please, do they think that based on the conditions that the east coast is at risk for this 2006 hurricane season or the gulf coast???

[SouthFloridawx]

what conditions might have a effect on the east coast of the u.s. getting hit for this 2006 hurricane season more than the gulf of mexico, and based on the conditions and facts do you think that the east coast is at serious risk for this season or the gulf coast anyone???

Basically Will it is my understand that a certain pattern right now may not have anything to do with an individual storm in the future. Here I'll explain my thinking.

Let's say right now as an example we have a Large Ridge of High Pressure that extends from the atlantic basin into the Continental United States if you will. All along there is a developing or developed Tropical Storm In the Southeast Bahamas.

At first glance you might call that Blocking ridge and it would head west. After all this example Monster Ridge has been in place for about the last month.

But, you notice what might be a decent size trough dipping down through the Middle of the United States, forecast to slice it's way down into the south eastern coastal states.

This Trough would then erode the Large Ridge Creating a weakness in the Ridge which in turn would allow the tropical cyclone to move more northerly up the east coast or even out to sea.

If that storm would have came through a week earlier it would have continued west into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the whole way to Texas but, instead the Overall Pattern that had been around for a month suddenly broke and an unexpected trough came through.

In closing I would add that when a storm is moving in it doesn't matter what type of pattern there has been but, what are the current synoptics and what features are likely to affect the TC in the near to mid term of it's future.

Try not to face so much on the Long Term pattern but, when a storm is approaching you will know what I mean.

[Dustin]

but I just need the experts to answer this question please, do they think that based on the conditions that the east coast is at risk for this 2006 hurricane season or the gulf coast???

Will the condtions are leaning towards an east coast year.

[willjnewton]

but why the east coast and what data our you basing that on???

[SouthFloridawx]

but why the east coast and what data our you basing that on???

I gave it as an example if you would read it carefully.

[Dustin]

but why the east coast and what data our you basing that on???

It depends on where the storm forms.