Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[mike815]

me too iman things have changes darn u 91l why have u betrayed me

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41041

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-19.4
Gust-23.3
Pressure-29.88

[Fego]

From NWS Puerto Rico
... AREA OF
SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDS A LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED AS A
CANDIDATE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE MENTIONED BELOW...AND IT IS LOOKING
WEAKER NOW. THAT LAYER OF HOT AIR AND DUST ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON BY LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC AFTER IT ARRIVES UNTIL NEXT MOIST WAVE APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41041

Wind-E
Wind Speed-19.4
Gust-25.3
Pressure-29.87

[Javlin]

RIP between the ULL's and TUTT's life is tough for these systems this year.Then too add the higher SLP we might maybe far better than last year.

[Bailey1777]

Buoy 41041

Wind-E
Wind Speed-19.4
Gust-23.3
Pressure-29.85

[Bailey1777]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N44W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ...POSSIBLY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[mobilebay]

Buoy 41041

Wind-E
Wind Speed-19.4
Gust-23.3
Pressure-29.85

I looked at the pressure map of this for the last few days and boy the pressure is bottoming out! However, winds are still ENE and E, of course the center maybe south of the area. We need to see the winds back out into another direction to even think we have a LLC. Looks like we do on satellite though. Low level cloud elements flowing in, but that wind direction is not impressive. Unless the center is South of that location. Maybe Mr. Ortt could give us his assessment of this valuable information.

[mobilebay]

Pressure still falling, but the winds are out of the east still.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling

[mobilebay]

Check out this 5 Day plot of the area. Pressure is sure falling tonight!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[Bailey1777]

Bouy is at 14.5N - 46.0W
LLC is at 12.0N - 44.0W

So yes it is SE of the bouy.

[Bailey1777]

Pressures are definetly falling if it could just get some convergence. Sun should be coming up where it is soon.

[mobilebay]

Bouy is at 14.5N - 46.0W
LLC is at 12.0N - 44.0W

So yes it is SE of the bouy.

Then yes we MAY have an LLC, well wait and see if the direction changes.

[Bailey1777]

On the shortwave ir I think it's right between the 3 little puffs of convection. At 12.5N -45.0W

[MississippiHurricane]

dont know what the yellow line is but its LOW!!!

[clfenwi]

On the shortwave ir I think it's right between the 3 little puffs of convection. At 12.5N -45.0W

I was about to post a similar remark based on looking at the "nightime visible" from the RAMSDIS page. I also eyeballed it at 12.5° N 45° W. Looking at an image from GHCC, perhaps a touch further north ~ 12.7°. For some reason it's more "apparent" to me than earlier tonight. Whether it's actually better defined, or it's just some kind of flukishness, I do not know.

[Bailey1777]

Misshurricane the line you are referring to is the barometric pressure. If it drops any more it will be off of that chart. It's a good sign for a deepening system. Pressures drop at this time daily in that area but as you can see from the 5 day plot it's more than the norm.

[mobilebay]

Well the latest GFDL does not drive it into South America!

295
WHXX04 KWBC 080528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 43.9 280./14.0
6 11.7 43.9 187./ 3.9
12 12.3 47.2 281./32.7
18 12.8 48.7 285./15.7
24 13.0 50.8 277./19.7
30 12.9 52.2 265./14.5
36 13.6 54.3 288./21.3
42 13.8 56.2 277./19.1
48 13.8 57.8 270./14.5
54 13.8 59.3 270./15.1
60 13.9 60.8 274./14.1
66 14.2 62.1 282./13.5
72 14.3 63.8 274./16.2
78 14.7 65.4 285./16.4
84 15.2 66.5 294./11.4
90 15.1 67.8 264./12.4
96 15.6 68.8 297./11.3
102 16.5 69.7 315./12.4
108 16.6 71.0 275./12.1
114 17.1 72.1 296./12.2
120 17.4 73.0 287./ 8.6
126 18.2 74.7 294./18.1

[colbroe]

lOOKS to me like this system is starting to fire up , convection is starting to become more pronounced on the western side and the rotation is more evident .If it continues we area looking at an explosive situation , bad for the islands

[mobilebay]

The Circulation has gotten alot stronger. I think if convection refires we will have a TD. There is no doubt about the circulation though.