Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

...per the TWD:

A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N45W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...POSSIBLY FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

I see no circulation at 45W. I've been tracking this through visible imagery this morning it's aroundo 47W. Buoy 41041 has been showing rising pressures the last few hours.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060808 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060808 1200 060809 0000 060809 1200 060810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 46.8W 14.0N 49.6W 15.2N 52.4W 16.2N 55.2W
BAMM 12.7N 46.8W 13.6N 49.9W 14.5N 52.9W 15.1N 56.1W
A98E 12.7N 46.8W 13.3N 50.1W 14.1N 53.1W 15.0N 56.1W
LBAR 12.7N 46.8W 13.7N 49.9W 14.7N 52.8W 15.3N 55.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060810 1200 060811 1200 060812 1200 060813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 57.6W 19.7N 61.5W 22.1N 64.3W 23.6N 66.1W
BAMM 15.9N 59.1W 17.9N 64.0W 20.0N 68.4W 21.7N 71.8W
A98E 15.9N 58.7W 18.2N 63.3W 20.4N 67.3W 22.9N 71.0W
LBAR 15.8N 58.5W 17.5N 63.6W 20.1N 67.3W 23.5N 69.7W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.



12:00z Graphic.

[Thunder44]

12z models initialized the center at 12.7N 46.8W right under that "CDO" feature I've been tracking.

[Nimbus]

That ULL looks like it will be tracking west then maybe WNW. There is already some shear but conditions could improve if the ULL either lifts out or moves away.

[Thunder44]

I believe there is more low-level covergence with this system this morning. You have dry air coming from the south meeting up with more moist air from north. Hence causing more convection to fire up near and over the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Also I don't think the ULL NE of islands is going to be much of a problem for it anymore. It appears to moving more westard and weakening with time. Hence shear is now decreasing East of Lesser Antillies.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[canes04]

Looks like td4/Debby in the making this morning!!

[ConvergenceZone]

this new direction does NOT look good. I was hoping it would just remain south and head far away from U.S.. Now it looks like if it does form, it WILL be a threat, that is, IF it develops.

[wxman57]

Y'all might take a look at this higher-resolution McIDAS image I just "snapped". I indicated low-cloud motions with the short yellow arrows. The center appears to be in the vicinity of 12.5N/47W.

Note that there is also a large, circular outflow boundary eminating away from the center. I think it formed when the lone thunderstorm near the center dissipated an hour or so ago. A new thunderstorm has developed over the center, though. The satellite image demonstrates a general lack of inflow into the center, something that does not indicate it's getting better organized.

Water vapor loops show the upper low NW of 91L is dropping southwestward into its path. Moisture from 91L is already being drawn northward as the low begins to interact with 91L. So, the good news is that chances of development appear to be diminishing

The good news that there is less chance of development. No one here wants anyone hurt by hurricanes this year, right?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby9.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Does look as if we've got convection now firing right around the center this AM. It also looks as if the shear has lessened over that area as well. Today could be the day 91L takes off from what I see on the visibles. Does anyone concur?

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news that there is less chance of development. No one here wants anyone hurt by hurricanes this year, right?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby9.gif

true, but that doesn't mean we can't have some strong fish storms to track. My tracking map is getting Dusty and that's not making me a happy camper but hopefully that will change very soon.

[Dean4Storms]

wxman, I don't concur with that synopsis. Those outflow boundaries are being pulled into the LLC clearly seen on RAMSDIS Floater and with Chris you came up with the same synopsis right before he developed. Outflows that are being dragged counterclockwise into an apparent low doesn't mean much that far removed from the apparent center.......(If we see an outflow emanate outward from that convection over the center I'd agree with you.)

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html


With the growing convection right over the center 91L is now in a small window for development if it continues today.

[MortisFL]

Will be interesting to see if this remains weak and goes into the Caribbean or it follows the same path as Chris.

[Thunder44]

Outflow boundaries do not always necessarily mean a system is not developing. Not as long as new thunderstorms keep firing up to replace the old ones. This system already has a LLC and Chris formed the same day it had outflow boundaries spuring away from it too.

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks a little better this morning than it did last night. I want to see more intense/steady convection. It appears as I thought from yesterday that it would be moving into a more favorable area today and with increasing sea surface temps could help this thing along a little. I am interested to see what type of ineraction this area has with the ULL.

The ULL does appear to be weakening as GFS indicated yesterday. But, it didn't show that for another 48 hours.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

EDIT:
However looking at it again.. it does seem to be encountering some mid-level shear which concurs with CIMSS site. Perhaps as it moves more westward is can develop some more intense thunderstorms from the warmer waters.

[Frank2]

I agree with wxman57's comment - one thunderstorm does not make a depression or tropical storm - it's just a disturbance at this time, that's all - no "Debby" comments needed here...

Frank

[skysummit]

I agree with wxman57's comment - one thunderstorm does not make a depression or tropical storm - it's just a disturbance at this time, that's all - no "Debby" comments needed here...

Frank

Yes, however, a few outflow boundaries doesn't mean development chances are diminishing either. I heard that way too many times with Chris just before he got his act together.

[canes04]

This 'disturbance' will form into TS Debby within 24hrs!!
Conditions are becoming more favorable for development.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with wxman57's comment - one thunderstorm does not make a depression or tropical storm - it's just a disturbance at this time, that's all - no "Debby" comments needed here...

Frank

just give it a little bit more time. It will come together.

[Thunder44]

QS Pass from 6am this morning shows the LLC may opened up overnight on the west side. That could of changed since then though.


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[hcane27]

Just curious as to how long we will "beat this dead horse " ??