Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

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304
NOUS42 KNHC 081500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 08 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-070

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE                  FLIGHT TWO
       A. 09/1800Z                 A. 10/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
       C. 09/1700Z                 C. 10/0500Z
       D. 15.0N 55.0W              D. 16.0N 59.0W
       E. 09/1700Z TO 10/0000Z     E. 10/0500Z TO 10/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT         F. SFC TO 10,000

I guess TPC must still think it can develop. I'll go along with them.

[MortisFL]

Guys this is gonna take some time to develop...but dont you notice systems usually gain convection just prior to 60W towards the islands.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 8, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered about 825 miles east of the Windward Islands...and is
moving westward 15 to 20 mph. Although thunderstorm activity is
minimal and upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for
development...this system still has some potential to become a
tropical depression during the next day or so.
A nearly stationary low pressure system is located about 750 miles
southwest of the Azores. Shower activity is minimal and further
development is not anticipated.
A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing
an area of cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and adjacent
waters. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for any significant
development of this system as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

[ConvergenceZone]

but for the next 5 days, we may need to get ready for June-like activity. No model shows anything even threatening to form into a TD, except maybe the CMC near Bermuda

yep, time to take a couple of weeks of. I'll check back the 1st of September. So much for breaking in my tracking software

[Derek Ortt]

I have to say that NHC may be missing the low-level dynamics on this storm. Too much emphasis on the upper levels, which are becoming less favorable as well.

I wouldput any wager on recon being cancelled

and dont wait until september... we should see things heat up in the final 10 days of August, which would be typical

[Frank2]

True, but, the TWO says what it says - not much at this time...

Thankfully...

Frank

[Sanibel]

These things can do amazing things once they hit favorable waters.


I believe this is a classic case of horizontal shear or subsidence.

[DESTRUCTION5]

These things can do amazing things once they hit favorable waters.


I believe this is a classic case of horizontal shear or subsidence.

Agree...I see this developing still...

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIDAS image. The LLC looks weaker now, and there's no more convection. Inflow pretty poor. I don't think it's going to make it. Development chances maybe 10-20% at best.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby10.gif

[calculatedrisk]

91L IR with 26, 27 and 28 degree isotherms: moving into warmer waters now.



SST Source:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 9atsst.png

[Dean4Storms]

Why are you using a water vapor image against an infrared image? I'm suggesting this wave looks better than Chris. But storms always look better on infrared images than water vapor images.

VS



HAPPY!!!

Now you got one zoomed in up close compared to one that is not. LOL!

[Thunder44]

Really, this system doesn't look much different than Chris did in the days before it became a TD. I wouldn't count this system out of developing before it reaches the islands. Jeff Masters seems to agree that the ULL NE of the islands is weakening and should not have much of an impact on the system.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

[Dean4Storms]

Really, this system doesn't look much different than Chris did in the days before it became a TD. I wouldn't count this system out of developing before it reaches the islands. Jeff Masters seems to agree that the ULL NE of the islands is weakening and should not have much of an impact on the system.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

And if the GFDL has a handle on it then it looks like a future GOM problem with its depicted track.

[stormernie]

Don't expect any additional development until it reaches at least 55 degress west.

[kenl01]

Y'all might take a look at this higher-resolution McIDAS image I just "snapped". I indicated low-cloud motions with the short yellow arrows. The center appears to be in the vicinity of 12.5N/47W.

Note that there is also a large, circular outflow boundary eminating away from the center. I think it formed when the lone thunderstorm near the center dissipated an hour or so ago. A new thunderstorm has developed over the center, though. The satellite image demonstrates a general lack of inflow into the center, something that does not indicate it's getting better organized.

Water vapor loops show the upper low NW of 91L is dropping southwestward into its path. Moisture from 91L is already being drawn northward as the low begins to interact with 91L. So, the good news is that chances of development appear to be diminishing

The good news that there is less chance of development. No one here wants anyone hurt by hurricanes this year, right?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby9.gif

Agreed. Conditions are just not very conducive for development.

[BonesXL]

stormernie...why do u think it will do something around 55 degrees west?

[flhurricaneguy]

well its moving toward more favorable conditions, so if it can hold together some type of convection for the next day or so. it could still have a chance at development

['CaneFreak]

Don't let your guard down on 91L...It could end up biting you on the butt...91 is presently moving north of due west at 15 to 20 mph...we can all agree on that....if it keeps on this track...it will end up in the islands in a couple of days...it will be in the Carribean in 3 days....the environment near the islands is relatively more conducive for TC formation due to higher mid level moisture content on the islands and near the islands. Also, there is a developing upper level ridge just north of PR that will likely continue to decrease the shear in the Carribean over the next couple of days. Basically, mid-level moisture will be on the increase as it moves west and upper level conditions appear to be improving more and more each day ahead of the system...and also water temps are also on the increase as you move west across the Atlantic...this system COULD form....IMO...in 48 to 72 hours...just give it some time....

Source: 1500 UTC CIMSS Shear Data

[Toadstool]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 8, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered about 825 miles east of the Windward Islands...and is
moving westward 15 to 20 mph. Although thunderstorm activity is
minimal and upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for
development...this system still has some potential to become a
tropical depression during the next day or so.
A nearly stationary low pressure system is located about 750 miles
southwest of the Azores. Shower activity is minimal and further
development is not anticipated.
A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing
an area of cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and adjacent
waters. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for any significant
development of this system as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

Wow, someone taught them how to turn off the CAPS LOCK key?

[Dean4Storms]

well its moving toward more favorable conditions, so if it can hold together some type of convection for the next day or so. it could still have a chance at development

Yes, Chris looked like this for several days before he went boom!