Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[flhurricaneguy]

well its moving toward more favorable conditions, so if it can hold together some type of convection for the next day or so. it could still have a chance at development

Yes, Chris looked like this for several days before he went boom!

thats correct. we can still continue to watch

[Dean4Storms]

Katrina looked alot like 91L at one time.[/img]

[MGC]

Looks like 91L is opening up. I don't see any west wind. Probility of development is fading quick. I give 91L about a 5% chance of becoming a TD in the next couple of days........MGC

[Bailey1777]

AFM I see your on here. What's your opinion? Another dead dog here?

[superfly]

The fat lady is starting to sing.

[cheezyWXguy]

It never even started...how is it ending?

[Dean4Storms]

Convection is once again firing off over the center or Low, don't write this one off just yet.

[Frank2]

It looks more like an open wave at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[DESTRUCTION5]

It looks more like an open wave at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Lots of room for improvement this time Frank...

[Thunder44]

Look like a vigourous vorticity max is still spinning.

[Normandy]

^I see the same thing as I saw yesterday, a vigorous low without convection

[Thunder44]

It looks more like an open wave at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

There is actually no wave axis. Just a an area of Low pressure with a vorticity max.

Here's this afternoon's discussion as a special feature:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N47W...OR
ABOUT 725 NM EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Thunder44]

333
WHXX01 KWBC 081842
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060808 1800 060809 0600 060809 1800 060810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 48.6W 14.0N 51.7W 14.9N 54.7W 16.1N 57.6W
BAMM 13.0N 48.6W 13.6N 52.0W 14.3N 55.4W 15.1N 58.6W
A98E 13.0N 48.6W 13.6N 52.0W 14.2N 55.2W 14.8N 58.2W
LBAR 13.0N 48.6W 13.6N 51.9W 14.5N 54.9W 15.3N 57.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060810 1800 060811 1800 060812 1800 060813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 59.8W 19.8N 63.0W 21.6N 65.3W 22.1N 66.9W
BAMM 16.1N 61.5W 18.2N 66.4W 20.4N 70.4W 21.8N 73.0W
A98E 15.4N 60.8W 17.1N 65.4W 18.8N 69.7W 20.3N 74.3W
LBAR 16.1N 60.8W 18.5N 65.6W 21.4N 68.6W 22.5N 69.1W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 62KTS 65KTS
DSHP 46KTS 49KTS 58KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 44.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 42.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

18:00z Tropical Models graphic.

[OURAGAN]

The track seems for Guadeloupe and Puerto rico

[Extremeweatherguy]

18:00z Tropical Models graphic.

these models seem too far north. Nearly every pro met I have heard talk about this system mention that they think it should go through the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

91L is going to try again this afternoon.

[Derek Ortt]

if we would have had the level of convergence we have today 2 days ago, we'd already be talking about Debby

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

This bouy is located at 14.5n-53.0w.Let's watch it to see when the system moves thru how the data changes in terms of the winds and the pressures.

[Thunder44]

I'm starting to see some more inflow on the south side of the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html