Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Damar91]

Could it be TD4?

[decgirl66]

thanks bvigal...i was concerned about the divers out there...I was thinking they would get tired and was also wondering if they ate their sandwiches while resting on the buoy...but also wondering how they kept their sandwiches dry.

Well I figured you knew it was a joke, but did want to answer your original question!

The scary thing was....I believed the answer the first time!!! I just figured they gave them a call when it needed to be moved...DER! I am sitting here laughing my butt off at myself for actually believing it! I am such a dork sometimes!

[Stormavoider]

Pressure is low out in front of it . Pressure trend at buoy at 14.50N 53.02W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41040&meas=pres&uom=M

[SouthFloridawx]

One more shot of 91L before it gets dark.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think I can I think I can.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC looks to be close to 14 north...The blow up is still being sheared some...But its looking more faverable.

[Damar91]

All I can say is watch out for Debby. That is my ex-wife's name!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I wonder how the deep Eastern low that is predicted to form might effect the long term track (six days, or more, out) of this developing system. Will the Trough kick it out to sea near the Bahamas, funnel it North and eventually absorb it, or miss the connection all together? It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[bvigal]

take a look at the dvorak IR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

[Damar91]

Looking good!

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is the 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

looks like the ridge should keep it more westward toward the Caribbean instead of further north like the BAM models are predicting.

[SouthFloridawx]

Good Visible close up but, click on it quick cause the suns goin down.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[bvigal]

1008mb prediction in just released 18z surface

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that a High has centered over it. You can clearly discern UL cloud tops moving out in all directions with slightly more moving northward. If this trend continues overnight we could have TD4 by in the AM tomorrow.

[bvigal]

Code: Select all

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060808  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060808  1800   060809  0600   060809  1800   060810  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.0N  48.6W   14.0N  51.7W   14.9N  54.7W   16.1N  57.6W
  BAMM    13.0N  48.6W   13.6N  52.0W   14.3N  55.4W   15.1N  58.6W
  A98E    13.0N  48.6W   13.6N  52.0W   14.2N  55.2W   14.8N  58.2W
  LBAR    13.0N  48.6W   13.6N  51.9W   14.5N  54.9W   15.3N  57.9W
  SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          40KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          40KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060810  1800   060811  1800   060812  1800   060813  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.4N  59.8W   19.8N  63.0W   21.6N  65.3W   22.1N  66.9W
  BAMM    16.1N  61.5W   18.2N  66.4W   20.4N  70.4W   21.8N  73.0W
  A98E    15.4N  60.8W   17.1N  65.4W   18.8N  69.7W   20.3N  74.3W
  LBAR    16.1N  60.8W   18.5N  65.6W   21.4N  68.6W   22.5N  69.1W
  SHIP        46KTS          57KTS          62KTS          65KTS
  DSHP        46KTS          49KTS          58KTS          61KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
  LATM12 =  12.4N LONM12 =  44.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
  LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  42.1W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[flhurricaneguy]

looking much more impressive now. this morning it looked dead.

[Grease Monkey]

This is beginning to remind me of Chris right before he formed into a TD. Let's see if the fast blow-up in convection continues.

[Bailey1777]

Man I watched it all night and early morning and finally gave up on it. Glad I checked back!

[Sanibel]

Is that slowly deepening banding or what?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is that slowly deepening banding or what?

I'd say slowly deepening banding...SSTs are warmer where it
is now as it churns westnorthwestward...and shear is lesser...
A tropical depression could be forming

Nice to see you again Sanibel...I remember you from the
other weather forum.