Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[cycloneye]

Continue the discussions here.

Thread #1

Thread #2

[WeatherEmperor]

so where is the most likely direction 91L will go to? north of the islands or south into the caribbean?

<RICKY>

[GeneratorPower]

Senorpepr, thank you for that very helpful checklist. That's awesome. Much appreciated.

[boca]

Its looking pretty sick right now on sat. Lets see if this will pull a Chris or actually develop.

[brunota2003]

By the way, both sites are up for me...I see the TCFA on the back-up site as well as Invest 91L, but the main site still has no 91L? hmmm...

[cycloneye]

However, it should be pointed out that TCFAs are not for public use. They are for planning purposes for Dept of Defense assests.

senorpepr,the question is if the tcfa is private,why they post it at their public site for the people to see it?

[ts_kakolina]

GeneratorPower wrote:

Can someone please explain what a TCFA means? We understand it means Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. But what does this mean?

Maybe you can look at this:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_C ... tion_Alert

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060809 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060809 0000 060809 1200 060810 0000 060810 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 51.0W 14.0N 54.1W 15.1N 57.1W 16.5N 59.8W
BAMM 12.9N 51.0W 13.6N 54.4W 14.5N 57.6W 15.7N 60.7W
A98E 12.9N 51.0W 13.2N 55.0W 13.8N 58.5W 14.6N 61.5W
LBAR 12.9N 51.0W 13.6N 54.8W 14.6N 58.0W 15.7N 61.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060811 0000 060812 0000 060813 0000 060814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 61.8W 20.7N 65.0W 22.9N 66.5W 23.7N 67.4W
BAMM 16.9N 63.2W 19.3N 67.4W 21.6N 70.1W 22.8N 71.0W
A98E 15.4N 64.0W 17.7N 68.2W 20.0N 72.0W 22.3N 75.8W
LBAR 16.8N 63.9W 19.1N 68.3W 22.5N 70.8W 23.8N 70.9W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models.It's racing westward at 25 mph.

[senorpepr]

However, it should be pointed out that TCFAs are not for public use. They are for planning purposes for Dept of Defense assests.

senorpepr,the question is if the tcfa is private,why they post it at their public site for the people to see it?

Why is the forecast discussion posted on the NHC website? The same reason: for better dissemination. Both TCFAs and NHC discussions are NOT for public use.

Matter of fact... NOTHING that the JTWC issues is for public use.

[Blown Away]

Models seem to have it moving slow and NW-NNW in 5 days
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[cycloneye]

00:00z Graphic.

[Recurve]

As far north as 23.8 at 70.9 W. in five days. Hmmmmm.
How reliable is LBAR in this setup I wonder.





[edit-corrected timeframe]

[Coredesat]

Why is the forecast discussion posted on the NHC website? The same reason: for better dissemination. Both TCFAs and NHC discussions are NOT for public use.

Matter of fact... NOTHING that the JTWC issues is for public use.

If that's the case, then they should just password-protect it or something. Despite the disclaimer, if the public knows about it, they're just going to use it anyway.

[Stratosphere747]

Remember that there was a TCFA put out for 98L. Everybody jumped on the bandwagon and thought this meant it was declared a TD....

[Extremeweatherguy]

none of these models are really right for this kind of situation (the BAMs are not dynamic). Also, they all contradict what I have heard from many pro mets...that this is going into the Caribbean under the ridge to the north.

[cycloneye]

[Stratosphere747]

none of these models are really right for this kind of situation. Also, they all contradict what I have heard from many pro mets...that this is going into the Caribbean.

Who?

57 is the only one, at least from this site that mentioned the possiblity of whatever this is, going into the Caribbean.

[stormtruth]

However, it should be pointed out that TCFAs are not for public use. They are for planning purposes for Dept of Defense assests.

senorpepr,the question is if the tcfa is private,why they post it at their public site for the people to see it?

Why is the forecast discussion posted on the NHC website? The same reason: for better dissemination. Both TCFAs and NHC discussions are NOT for public use.

Matter of fact... NOTHING that the JTWC issues is for public use.

It isn't public in the sense that the public can't or shouldn't use them. It doesn't warn the public not to use them on the About page.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml

The whole website is available to everyone.

[senorpepr]

Why is the forecast discussion posted on the NHC website? The same reason: for better dissemination. Both TCFAs and NHC discussions are NOT for public use.

Matter of fact... NOTHING that the JTWC issues is for public use.

If that's the case, then they should just password-protect it or something. Despite the disclaimer, if the public knows about it, they're just going to use it anyway.

Password protection will limit dissemination. All meteorologists should have access to this information.

This goes for Area Forecast Discussions as well. They are NOT intended for public use, but if they were password-protected, it wouldn't serve the purpose of the product.

The public can go ahead and use it if they want, but they shouldn't complain when they don't know a contraction or if something doesn't float their boat the way they want.

[senorpepr]

Remember that there was a TCFA put out for 98L. Everybody jumped on the bandwagon and thought this meant it was declared a TD....

Right... all it means is that it fits the checklist. Things like proximity to a DoD site adds 5 points on a scale where 35 points is all that is needed. That means a stronger system off western Cuba will not get a TCFA and a weaker system off eastern Cuba will get a TCFA.