Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know, it already looks like a depression on that Satellite above....

[Brent]

WHOA. I've been out of the loop pretty much since last night and I'm a bit surprised.

This kinda thing happens when you live in Alabama.....

I was about ready to go up and kill someone at the internet provider...

[Acral]

As surprising as it would be, from the visual depiction I would want to say that we have T.S. Debby.

[Trugunzn]

[clfenwi]

WHXX04 KWBC 091726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.6 55.2 275./21.0
6 12.6 56.4 268./11.2
12 12.4 58.8 265./23.4
18 12.5 60.6 275./18.0
24 12.9 63.2 278./25.4
30 13.2 64.4 285./12.2
36 13.7 66.6 282./21.5
42 14.2 68.6 284./20.6
48 14.4 70.5 275./18.4
54 14.2 72.2 263./16.6
60 13.7 74.3 257./20.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[flhurricaneguy]

As surprising as it would be, from the visual depiction I would want to say that we have T.S. Debby.

i wouldnt be to sure of that

[ConvergenceZone]

While looking at the floater, while the coldest cloud tops have warmed, the overall size is expanding. That didn't happen last time the convection blew up , so that's a good sign for development. It's obvoiusly getting larger.

[ConvergenceZone]

WHXX04 KWBC 091726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.6 55.2 275./21.0
6 12.6 56.4 268./11.2
12 12.4 58.8 265./23.4
18 12.5 60.6 275./18.0
24 12.9 63.2 278./25.4
30 13.2 64.4 285./12.2
36 13.7 66.6 282./21.5
42 14.2 68.6 284./20.6
48 14.4 70.5 275./18.4
54 14.2 72.2 263./16.6
60 13.7 74.3 257./20.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

This can change, depending on how quick the system develops.....

[bvigal]

I was about ready to go up and kill someone at the internet provider...

That's justifyable homocide!

Convection looks like it will miss Barbados. It has weakened somewhat, but that may only be temporary.

[flhurricaneguy]

do you think the 2 o'clock will mention a TD or will they wait until 5pm so they can gather all the data?

[dwg71]

As surprising as it would be, from the visual depiction I would want to say that we have T.S. Debby.

According to recon, not even close. Time will tell, we will see soon.

[Brent]

do you think the 2 o'clock will mention a TD or will they wait until 5pm so they can gather all the data?

Not at 2 since they haven't found a closed circulation yet.

[mempho]

In cycloneye's clip, am I seeing easterly shear? I could certainly be wrong, but I could swear I see another Chris shear situation with this one... or at least the very beginnings of it. Anyone?

I'm seeing shear just to the north at 20-30kts. I didn't want to burst bubbles but the map shows problems to the north. If this storm stays south though, it might just make it. If someone has a link to that map, you will see what I'm talking about as I just saw the map on another board.

[Trugunzn]

[Trugunzn]

shear impacting on the east side of the storm:

[mempho]

That's it, Trug...thanks.

[HURAKAN]

...Special feature...
A strong tropical wave located about 195 miles east of the
Windward Islands is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated this
morning...and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
reach the system this afternoon to determine if a tropical
depression or storm has formed. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development...the system will spread showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds to tropical storm force in squalls over
portions of the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight.
Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is approaching the
Windward Islands from 11n to 16n between 56w and 61w. A surface
low has been replaced on the wave axis near 13n55w due to this
burst along with low cloud motions spiraling cyclonically into
the system.

[ConvergenceZone]

maybe after it moves further west, the east shear will no longer be an issue, that's what I'm thinking....


I know that usually things don't get going until Mid August, but I see absolutely nothing else out there to watch. Usually this time of year, there's at least a few areas of disturbances to watch. I don't see anything other than this..

[southerngale]

That's hardly anything to cry about. Try getting hit by one of these things...then there's something to cry about.

[ConvergenceZone]

That's hardly anything to cry about. Try getting hit by one of these things...then there's something to cry about.

I've been in a hurricane and actually in a tornado before. I think I could handle a tropical depression.