Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Extremeweatherguy]

Finally the models begin to look more sensible.

What is your definition of sensible?? This an "invest" at this time, models are far from sensible, just because this run show a more west/gulf track doesnt make it more "right".

uh, yes it does. With the ridge to the north I never thought this would turn north and then become a fish as they were showing earlier. Now that they have finally realized this, they are more sensible looking, because they will probably be more accurate.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here's a neat picture of 91L. I've been in bed the past 4 hours with a very sore back muscle. Got up to take a peek and thought it looked like a TS. But the spin appears to be aloft. Just goes to show how deceiving satellite imagery can be when trying to locate an LLC.

Looking interesting.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIFOR is a purely statistical model.

Where I view guidance from is not something I would post publicly. However, it usually shows up on the model plots posted here from Johnathan Vigh

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

In case anyone didn't see the statement posted at the other page here it is.

[deltadog03]

well, models are not very good right now because its just forming or whatever...BUT**** these model track are MUCH more plausible now because this thing is weak and its going into the carribbean atleast.

[miamicanes177]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

Do you have a link to the SHIFOR? That might show its track also? Thanx

I'll give you a link. It is public. SHF5 can be found here...18Z should update in the next hour. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[Grease Monkey]

Looks like it's becoming disorganized again?

[ConvergenceZone]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

Thanx, although I wish this would be pointing out to sea as opposed to Mexico... If it's going to be heading toward land, then I'd like to see may be a fast moving tropical storm out of it(as to limit the flood damage), hurricane, then head it out to sea...

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's a neat picture of 91L. I've been in bed the past 4 hours with a very sore back muscle. Got up to take a peek and thought it looked like a TS. But the spin appears to be aloft. Just goes to show how deceiving satellite imagery can be when trying to locate an LLC.

Looking interesting.

yea I know people are screaming at me for calling it a depression, but man that looks good, alot better than most depressions I see. That is why I say it may be upgraded to storm status and skip the depression phase once it develops a LLC.

[senorpepr]

something to get the kids excited

SHIFOR makes this a major hurricane in 5 days

Do you have a link to the SHIFOR? That might show its track also? Thanx

I'll give you a link. It is public. SHF5 can be found here...18Z should update in the next hour. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

Technically, it's not public. You just happen to have access to it.

Just like the AFDs and NHC discussions, and JTWC advisories......

[TheEuropean]

Now NRL corrected 91L to 30 kt and 1010 mb.

I don't think it will be upgraded today, it has to slow dwon a bit at first.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like it's becoming disorganized again?

no it still looks good, but a closed LLC can not form yet due to the speed of the storm. There needs to be a 32mph west surface wind right now for this to close off. Once (and IF) that happens, this should become a TD or TS.

[miamicanes177]

Technically, it's not public. You just happen to have access to it.

Just like the AFDs and NHC discussions, and JTWC advisories......

Well I'm glad we have access because I'm a big fan of the weather and its fun to get this kind of information.

[HURAKAN]

Claudette

07 / 0000 11.1 53.5 1010 25 tropical wave
07 / 0600 11.8 55.3 1010 30 "
07 / 1200 12.6 57.5 1010 30 "
07 / 1800 13.2 59.8 1010 35 "
08 / 0000 13.7 62.0 1009 35 "
08 / 0600 14.0 64.8 1009 40 "
08 / 1200 14.4 67.6 1009 40 "
08 / 1800 14.8 70.0 1006 45 tropical storm
09 / 0000 15.0 72.0 1001 50 "
09 / 0600 15.1 74.4 1003 60 "
09 / 1200 15.3 76.5 1004 55 "
09 / 1800 15.8 78.6 1002 55 "
10 / 0000 16.1 80.3 1002 55 "
10 / 0600 16.6 81.7 998 55 "
10 / 1200 17.5 82.8 988 70 hurricane
10 / 1800 18.6 84.1 1003 55 tropical storm
11 / 0000 19.7 85.5 1010 50 "
11 / 0600 20.4 86.3 1009 50 "
11 / 1200 21.1 87.2 1009 50 "
11 / 1800 21.8 88.2 1009 45 "
12 / 0000 22.6 89.2 1008 45 "
12 / 0600 23.3 90.2 1007 45 "
12 / 1200 23.9 90.7 1006 45 "
12 / 1800 24.6 90.9 1008 45 "
13 / 0000 24.9 91.5 1003 45 "
13 / 0600 24.9 91.9 1005 45 "
13 / 1200 25.1 92.1 999 50 "
13 / 1800 25.3 92.2 995 50 "
14 / 0000 25.6 92.2 991 55 "
14 / 0600 26.0 92.3 993 55 "
14 / 1200 26.7 92.6 991 55 "
14 / 1800 27.3 93.0 989 60 "
15 / 0000 27.7 93.6 988 60 "
15 / 0600 27.9 94.6 987 65 hurricane
15 / 1200 28.3 95.5 982 75 "
15 / 1800 28.6 96.9 984 70 "
16 / 0000 28.5 98.2 995 50 tropical storm
16 / 0600 28.5 99.4 999 40 "
16 / 1200 28.8 100.8 1003 35 "
16 / 1800 29.3 102.6 1007 35 "
17 / 0000 29.9 104.3 1014 30 tropical depression
17 / 0600 30.5 106.0 1016 25 remnant low
17 / 1200 30.9 107.7 1016 25 "
17 / 1800 dissipated
15 / 1530 28.3 96.2 979 80 minimum pressure
11 / 1000 20.8 86.9 1009 50 landfall at Puerto Morelos, Mexico
15/ 1530 28.3 96.2 979 80 landfall at Matagorda Island, Texas

[wxman57]

I do agree that the models now look much more "sensible". The BAM models, as I have said, did not know that the ridge north of 91L would be increasing with time, so they turned it WNW across the DR/Cuba. The dynamic models, on the other hand, had seen the ridge and forecast a much more westerly path.

Here's a model plot I just made. Note that many of the dynamic models indicate a track south of west toward the 4-5 day time frame as the ridge to the north strengthens.

[WindRunner]

Looks like it's becoming disorganized again?

no it still looks good, but a closed LLC can not form yet due to the speed of the storm. There needs to be a 32mph west surface wind right now for this to close off. Once (and IF) that happens, this should become a TD or TS.

Actually, any west wind is good enough, it's just that it is going to take more energy (strength of spin) to counteract the quick forward motion. A 32mph storm-relative west wind is what we need, which would be a 5-10mph ground-relative west wind.

[HURAKAN]

Claudette first advisory:

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.0 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

[stormtruth]

I wonder if it will form and then discard all clothing like crazy Christopher

[ConvergenceZone]

I do agree that the models now look much more "sensible". The BAM models, as I have said, did not know that the ridge north of 91L would be increasing with time, so they turned it WNW across the DR/Cuba. The dynamic models, on the other hand, had seen the ridge and forecast a much more westerly path.

Here's a model plot I just made. Note that many of the dynamic models indicate a track south of west toward the 4-5 day time frame as the ridge to the north strengthens.

well, at least this emliminates a USA threat and hopefully where it hits in Mexico won't be populated in case there's flooding....

Actually, it may not even make it in the gulf based on those models, might be one of those ones that emerge back into the Pacific, this seems more likely..

[Normandy]

Moving at this speed, its impossible for it to be declared a TD. If it closed off, it would be a strong TS probably because its minimum wind would be in the 30-35 mph range on its south side.