Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[cycloneye]

A STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 58W IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT.
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS SYSTEM AND COULD NOT FIND A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ON OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE HAS A BROAD BUT WELL
DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE. MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS WELL AHEAD OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W AND APPEARS
TO BE RACING FARTHER WEST. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT....AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.



8 PM Discussion.

[miamicanes177]

09/2345 UTC 14.0N 59.2W T1.0/1.5

[MGC]

91L looks worst this evening than earlier in the day. Moving too fast, no development in the short term.....MGC

[hiflyer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 PM AST WED AUG 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...A MAINLY DRY...HAZY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEN...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR LOCAL WEATHER HINGES ON LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF STRONG TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE TRIED TO0 USE A COMPROMISE WITH THE FORECAST...
TO HAVE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA SLOWER THAN WE INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT A BIT FASTER THAN
WHAT THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING. THUS...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

PER TPC/NHC...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT CLOSE OFF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES
STEADILY OFF TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[HurricaneHunter914]

91L looks worst this evening than earlier in the day. Moving too fast, no development in the short term.....MGC

We said the same thing last night and look what happpened, all we need is a little patience.

[Trugunzn]

[AnnularCane]

Is there another recon scheduled for tomorrow?

[Trugunzn]

lil bust coming up, but is it to far away from center?

[Trugunzn]

yes, depends how it looks

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well at least it has more convection than it did last night.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, other than this, still nothing to watch that's in the Atlantic or Carib. The next Invest will be the big wave that's coming off Africa. Hopefully that will have an invest by the end of the weekend or the beginning of the next week. .....It's alot more moist now and it's later in the year, so with those 2 good things going for it, that's where our attention will be focused soon....

Anyway, regarding Invest 91, I guess I need to finally agree with everyone that 91 Invest is on it's last legs....


NEXT ---> BIG WAVE COMING OFF AFRICA. ...

[cycloneye]

Is there another recon scheduled for tomorrow?

There is a mission for tommorow that departs around 1 PM EDT from ST Croix.However the mission would go if neccessary.

[brunota2003]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that, reading the 805 PM above, while the wave is a well defined one, the MLC will slowly spin down unless convection forms over it, now it appears to me that the convection will wane alot tonight followed by another blow up tomorrow morning, however I am not certain that the convection will be as big as a blow up as the one seen today, we will not know until it develops, if at all. The outflow has become better defined as the day has gone on, as pointed out by some people here, but I believe that we will see it slacken up as this latest convection burst races ahead of the main wave axis. However, as pointed out by the NHC, regardless of whether this system develops or not, the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico are in for some pretty nasty wx over the next day or so with wind gusts up to possibly tropical storm force...also, just taking a look at the visible floater loop, seen here: Visible Floater Loop it appears to me that the MLC has spun down, it may no longer be a complete circulation, if it is, it will surely die here soon provided no convection develops over it...

[bvigal]

I think I'm going to adopt a new motto for hurricane season, adapted from a catch-phrase in Jerry Maguire:

"Show me the convection."

[Trugunzn]

The farthur west it goes the better enviroment?

[wxman57]

Here's a 00Z analysis of the eastern Caribbean. As you can see, no evidence of a circulation as it moves into the islands. Just a wave. Sure did catch my attention around 2pm this afternoon, though.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby19.gif

[swimaster20]

Wxman, what do you think 91L will do in the Carribbean?

[bvigal]

A friend of mine just called. He had just hung up the phone with a buddy who's visiting friends in Martinique. According to this buddy, they've had torrential rains off and on for 3 days, but not much wind at all. He had traveled up into the mountains today, too, where winds are usually higher.

So, I looked it up. At 3:23pm today, the airport at Martinique recorded a wind gust of 51.8mph in heavy thunderstorm.

Two years ago, we had damage to several boats during some fast-moving squalls. 'Old salts' estimated the wind gusts at 50-60mph, based upon the strength of what it broke, tore, shredded, and lifted from tie-downs. The airport recorded top gust of only 31mph. (pretty common around here)

So, as to wind measurements, it goes like this: If you didn't feel it, or the airport didn't measure it (especially 1 minute per hour), that doesn't mean it didn't happen!

[Nimbus]

The current best convection is west of the islands now so perhaps the wave will form a new center? Looking at the water vapor loop the ULL moving south over PR appears to be lifting out and the shear is decreasing over time. There will be a ridge in place in a day or so just north of the wave.

[wxboy222]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My thoughts are this system doesn't have much of a chance unless it can continue to build thunderstorms consistently around the low level center. I just don't see it being able to do it tonight. Usually there is at least some indication of convection when thunderstorms are going to try to build over the center. I just don't see it this evening. But, for now, here's the latest models with some quick stats below;



18Z GFS: 35 KTS
18Z GFDL: 36 KTS
18Z NGPS: 30 KTS (init)
00Z SHIP: 76 KTS

Aaron

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