P.K. wrote:Well the way I read that it looks like they are thinking more towards a possible warm ENSO event than the BoM. But remember the NOAA said it was a cool ENSO event early this year but the BoM kept it as neutral.
There are somewhat conflicting views out there with the three that you mention. I always have a great deal of respect for the Australian outlooks and this is why I always use the Long Paddock SOI data .
The ENSO effects them way more and they really dig deep into the different possible aspects behind it. The research into the EPI is a minor example.
The recent CPC subsurface data that I mentioned to you yesterday still supported plenty of warmth below so this might be why they are a liittle more optimistic about it's developmental chances . It always amazes me at how different all the data can be in regards to SST's. Up top or down below.