Surface low forming off NC?

[Stormavoider]

The buoy data in the area show some relatively real low pressures. In the visible imagery you can see a nearly dry swirl due east of Cape Fear or due south of Cape Hatteras. Do you think something is trying to get going despite the lack of convection?

Ship reports:

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec ° ft sec ° Acc Ice
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1800 32.20 -74.70 34 101 260 21.0 - - - - - 29.93 -0.03 81.7 - 75.7 - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
SHIP S 1800 33.20 -76.80 91 307 330 5.1 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.93 -0.03 82.8 85.1 - 12.4 6 - 1.6 5.0 220 - - - ---- -----

Big visible:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[Aquawind]

THere has been a number of fronts stalling as they lift out and this area has been mentioned recently as a possibility for the next ssytems.. but currently it does not look like much other than a new frontal boundry. Nothing much in the area according to the analysis.. Persistant convection will be something to watch.. keyword persistant.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

It's not going unnoticed.. SouthFloridawx, Hurakan, and Will have all posted about the possibilities..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87947

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87808

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88032

[Stormavoider]

Thank you.

I posted in the other thread (unusual cold front) to avoid starting another thread. I guess I got impatient for feedback.

[Jim Cantore]

Thats how Beryl formed I believe

[Normandy]

I dont see any dry swirl that you are talking of

[Stormavoider]

It has changed. Edit the URL to numframes=20 if you have time. It can be seen in a dry areas encircled buy clouds.

[Bane]

NWS Wilmington just mentioned in their discussion the possibility for tropical development over the next ten days just off the coast.

[Stormavoider]

Pressure is 1010.6 at Wrightsville Beach.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jmpn7&unit=E&tz=STN

[willjnewton]

will this system off the nc coast will head up the coast or just be a fish storm???

[WindRunner]

will this system off the nc coast will head up the coast or just be a fish storm???

At this point, Will, there isn't a system, but if one does develop, the models show it to be a fish storm.

[willjnewton]

I thought this will be a beryl type storm, If it does form???

[rainstorm]

lets wait and see if a high forms over new england. that hasnt happened all summer, and unless it does, nothing that forms, if it forms, would be an east coast threat

[willjnewton]

is a high forecasted to be over new england???

[Normandy]

I still dont see any hint of a surface low

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the 48hr Surface Plot from the OPC:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

*Picture changed to link due to size of graphic. CM

[george_r_1961]

Whether or not theres a high over new england has little if any bearing on an EC threat. Get a massive Bermuda Azores high with an EC trof positioned just right( negatively tilted or even neutral) a storm can get literaly sucked into the mid atlantic in the former case or new england in the latter case. Just like what happened when the Long Island Express hit the northeast in 1938 I believe. No big high...just a trough that caught the hurricane like a gutter catches a bowling ball.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Correct you generally need a Trough coming in from the Great Lakes and a High off the East Coast.

[Normandy]

I still dont see where it is on visibles even with the help of the surface plot

[rainstorm]

is a high forecasted to be over new england???

not at this time. for an old front to develop a tropical cyclone, a big high has to be to its north in order to lock the developping low in place and allow it time to become tropical. if not, the low will scoot out to the northeast and likely remain non-tropical

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

this is an example of what i mean. green means a trough, and the trough, as its been all summer is over new england. i feel the east coast is safe for now

[willjnewton]

so you all our saying No east coast hurricane threats for this 2006 hurricane season based on the trough and the high pressure, I thought Bill gray says more east coast storms than the gulf