JIM CANTORE: may be quiet for sometime in atlantic

[rainstorm]

if the pattern keeps on repeating. he showed some great sat maps about how huge upper lows keep developing and moving west across the atlantic causing shear and very dry air.

[Jim Cantore]

If that continues yes this will keep up, I dont think it will for much longer though, although it seems the word "Climatology" has no meaning anymore.

[rainstorm]

very true. lets hope we get a break this year

[KatDaddy]

Totally agree. Last year was very intense. Year of the ULL sounds good to me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good. I'm happy if it stays quiet in the Atlantic.
I'll offer a short analysis with my amateurish insight
into what I observe may be taking place regarding
current conditions in the Atlantic Basin.
Now I am an amateur so do not take this as expert
advice. See NHC and NOAA official publications and
information for the most reliable analysis.

This year is showing an El Nino type pattern with a bad Western
Pacific Typhoon Season. That means that El Nino type
shear and ULLs may decrease the activity in the Atlantic.
The shear and ULLs point to El-Nino-ish Conditions, as
well as the SOI. Right now the official declaration is that
it is neutral but I would say the
conditions are closer to El Nino-ish than they are
to La Nina-ish.

If it were not for the shear and dry air, with the SSTs
and Oceanic Heat Content there
would be intense activity...but activity
is forecasted to pick up by Dr. Gray in
the coming weeks as we enter the active
part of the season, although hopefully
we won't see any very bad
storms hit land or affect people.

Now remember...it only takes one storm to cause major problems,
so everyone keep your eyes and ears open as we head towards
the climatologically active part of the 2006 Hurricane Season.

Also remember, since we are not in a definite moderate
to strong El Nino...we could and will still likely see a very active
season. I am not by any means writing this season off as inactive.
It will be active, because El Nino and other factors are not
strong enough to render it inactive, throughout the whole season.
The ULLs and higher shear + dry air is mostly normal for this time of
early-mid August, and are forecasted to diminish to allow for
cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Basin for mid-to-late August
and through September.

[rainstorm]

good points. when i was looking at the sat maps cantore was showing, they just had a very bone dry look to them. i would say short term prospects for development are very poor

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

good points. when i was looking at the sat maps cantore was showing, they just had a very bone dry look to them. i would say short term prospects for development are very poor

Thanks for the compliments.
Yes, for the short term (2-3 days+)...development does not appear
likely with the current conditions such as dry air and ULLs
and TUTT in place.
Or any development may be minimal IMO.

For the long-term though:
I will be watching carefully though because for mid-late
August conditions may change to become more
favorable for development...as it is forecasted by
Dr. Gray for there to be an active season.

[stormtruth]

The storms are waiting for everyone to call this a quiet season before they start.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just read WXMAN57's analysis in another thread and I must
add a few thoughts...it has been quite active for the early
part of the season overall...with 3-4 storms up until August 10th (4 if the system
near Nova Scotia that formed just before Beryl is classified
during post-season analysis).
Several of those systems came very close to reaching hurricane strength.

So while it is currently inactive and almost but not quite El-Nino-ish things
will have to be watched carefully.

[Andrew92]

My take on this is if we had a good El Nino, I'd like to not only see the activity in the WPAC, but the EPAC as well. I'm not sure if 7 storms and 3 hurricanes is above normal in the EPAC for this time of year, but for some reason, I want more activity in that basin before declaring this an El Nino.

I would seriously love for the U.S. to have a break, as well as this be a quiet season elsewhere. But I still think this is normal for this time of year. I think the shear will eventually quiet down in the next couple weeks, which could be followed by some strong hurricanes down the road.

-Andrew92

[MGC]

Dont' forget the one that came ashore in NC that was not classified. I too hope for a quite year. We need the break.....MGC

[Tropigal]

I'm glad its been a quiet year so far too. Just think, at this time last year we there were already 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 were major.

[rainstorm]

cantore was not at all bullish on anything developing. true, we have had 3 weak, sheared ts's so far this season. im not sure that counts as active, though. several more troughs are going to come off the east coast in the coming week.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, so even Cantore is saying it may be quiet for some time in the Atlantic huh?
Well, so much for the busy season starting up around August 15th then......

In July, people were saying wait until the beginning of August(which I agreed with),
now that it's August, people are saying wait until the 15th of August. What will they say if we get to the middle of August and nothing has formed yet? Wait until September?

[Andrew92]

Hmm, so even Cantore is saying it may be quiet for some time in the Atlantic huh?
Well, so much for the busy season starting up around August 15th then......

In July, people were saying wait until the beginning of August(which I agreed with),
now that it's August, people are saying wait until the 15th of August. What will they say if we get to the middle of August and nothing has formed yet? Wait until September?

I usually start really watching after about August 20 or so......not that I'm not watching beforehand.

-Andrew92

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm, so even Cantore is saying it may be quiet for some time in the Atlantic huh?
Well, so much for the busy season starting up around August 15th then......

In July, people were saying wait until the beginning of August(which I agreed with),
now that it's August, people are saying wait until the 15th of August. What will they say if we get to the middle of August and nothing has formed yet? Wait until September?

Things will heat up in late August and September. Just wait..

[jasons2k]

IMO a lot of the negating factors are being exaggerated. We've had slightly above normal activity so far and overall shear levels in the basin are falling as scheduled.

Also, here is a little writeup:

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/first1886.htm

[f5]

after last year lets hope it stays quiet for the sake of gulf coast residents

[wxmann_91]

Things will heat up when I start school. They sure did last year. (Katrina)

[Stormcenter]

For those waiting for the rush of storms I wouldn't hold my breath. Yes we will have some storms later this month and in September but nothing like last season.
Which basically mean we will probably end up having an average season. Let's just hope the big ones that do develop (and they will) avoid the heavily populated areas.