JIM CANTORE: may be quiet for sometime in atlantic

[Rainband]

If we had a quiet season it would be good news. I just wish everyone would feel that way. I can't believe some people still seem to want storms.

[gilbert88]

I really don't care for any strong storms forming this year, as long as they don't hit Louisiana, Southern Florida and Cancun. Those 3 areas need a rest.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those waiting for the rush of storms I wouldn't hold my breath. Yes we will have some storms later this month and in September but nothing like last season.
Which basically mean we will probably end up having an average season. Let's just hope the big ones that do develop (and they will) avoid the heavily populated areas.

If Dr. Gray's forecast of 15 storms holds true, then that means we should see 12 more storms between now and Nov. 30th. Based on this, I think a 1-2 month rush of storms is certainly possible; may be even as active as Aug/Sept 2004.

[AussieMark]

it would not be unprecedented if it did

I remember between AUgust 22 and September 24 in 1998 10 storms formed

[RQSTR]

most of us on this forum expected, with some of kind of frenzy, a very active season. some says that the "real" season has to start within days or weeks. i truly believe that the 2006 season started with alberto, and that this strange little fighter storm announced what the entire season would be. and i think a lot of us has difficulties to admit that this season won't be active.

[Derek Ortt]

this climatology has no meaning is starting to get quite old as it is way off in left field

[TSmith274]

Derek... since you and I are up at this ridiculous hour, I've got something out in right field for you. Been following this stuff for years, but I realized I've never even asked myself, or anyone for that matter... "what causes an upper-level low?". We all seem to know what causes a surface low. But I, for one, just take ULL's as something akin to the sun rising everyday... it just happens from time to time. What really causes an ULL?

[Derek Ortt]

one way to get them is for the upper atmosphere to cool, which lowers the upper level pressure surfaces

[TSmith274]

one way to get them is for the upper atmosphere to cool, which lowers the upper level pressure surfaces

Ok, so it's an upper atmosphere sinking of the air in response to the cold upper layers.... kind of trapped between rising water vapor off the sea surface and the colder than normal upper atmosphere conditions. Do I have that right? And I'm guessing that these vapors rising from the sea surface often lead to the thunderstorms that we had, for instance, in Louisiana today. Interesting.

[Derek Ortt]

the atmosphere does not sink, its just that the column of air contracts

[Jim Hughes]

Derek... since you and I are up at this ridiculous hour, I've got something out in right field for you. Been following this stuff for years, but I realized I've never even asked myself, or anyone for that matter... "what causes an upper-level low?". We all seem to know what causes a surface low. But I, for one, just take ULL's as something akin to the sun rising everyday... it just happens from time to time. What really causes an ULL?

A few of the preferred favorable space weather conditions that I wrote about last year, in reference to tropical enhancement and development, are still occurring. Just in other parts of the world. I have written before about how the MJO phases are very important here in regards to locatonal relationships.

Well the ENSO is related to the MJO. This season's ATL activity is being effected by the ULL. But the space weather activity this season seems to be having an effect upon the continual formation of these ATL upper level lows.

So one could make a hypothesis that the atmosphere, which is definitely tilting toward El Nino, is still showing signs of this relationship in the ATL , but it is just at a different atmospheric level.

A quick answer as to the space weather culprit here? Coronal holes have a cooling effect upon certain levels of the troposphere. This has been shown in research. So the presence of them, along with the absence of certain other space weather variables, and the devloping EL Nino, sets the table for these continual upper level lows in the ATL.

[TampaFl]

Derek... since you and I are up at this ridiculous hour, I've got something out in right field for you. Been following this stuff for years, but I realized I've never even asked myself, or anyone for that matter... "what causes an upper-level low?". We all seem to know what causes a surface low. But I, for one, just take ULL's as something akin to the sun rising everyday... it just happens from time to time. What really causes an ULL?

A few of the preferred favorable space weather conditions that I wrote about last year, in reference to tropical enhancement and development, are still occurring. Just in other parts of the world. I have written before about how the MJO phases are very important here in regards to locatonal relationships.

Well the ENSO is related to the MJO. This season's ATL activity is being effected by the ULL. But the space weather activity this season seems to be having an effect upon the continual formation of these ATL upper level lows.

So one could make a hypothesis that the atmosphere, which is definitely tilting toward El Nino, is still showing signs of this relationship in the ATL , but it is just at a different atmospheric level.

A quick answer as to the space weather culprit here? Coronal holes have a cooling effect upon certain levels of the troposphere. This has been shown in research. So the presence of them, along with the absence of certain other space weather variables, and the devloping EL Nino, sets the table for these continual upper level lows in the ATL.

Jim, is this forecasted to continue or will there be a change to allow the developement of more tropical systems in the Atlantic later this year.?


Robert

[rainstorm]

what is a coronal hole?

[Jim Hughes]

Derek... since you and I are up at this ridiculous hour, I've got something out in right field for you. Been following this stuff for years, but I realized I've never even asked myself, or anyone for that matter... "what causes an upper-level low?". We all seem to know what causes a surface low. But I, for one, just take ULL's as something akin to the sun rising everyday... it just happens from time to time. What really causes an ULL?

A few of the preferred favorable space weather conditions that I wrote about last year, in reference to tropical enhancement and development, are still occurring. Just in other parts of the world. I have written before about how the MJO phases are very important here in regards to locatonal relationships.

Well the ENSO is related to the MJO. This season's ATL activity is being effected by the ULL. But the space weather activity this season seems to be having an effect upon the continual formation of these ATL upper level lows.

So one could make a hypothesis that the atmosphere, which is definitely tilting toward El Nino, is still showing signs of this relationship in the ATL , but it is just at a different atmospheric level.

A quick answer as to the space weather culprit here? Coronal holes have a cooling effect upon certain levels of the troposphere. This has been shown in research. So the presence of them, along with the absence of certain other space weather variables, and the devloping EL Nino, sets the table for these continual upper level lows in the ATL.

Jim, is this forecasted to continue or will there be a change to allow the developement of more tropical systems in the Atlantic later this year.?


Robert

I just found out a short time ago that fairly large sunspot group has rapidly developed overnight. I haven't had the time to look at any magnetograms yet but a couple of solar observers are calling for the possibility of major solar flaring. This magnetically complexed sunspot group increases the chances of us seeing an increase in certain energetic particle levels. This would help tropical development. Even possibly for the ATL . Like I mentioned above though. There are other variables to consider now.

[TampaFl]

Derek... since you and I are up at this ridiculous hour, I've got something out in right field for you. Been following this stuff for years, but I realized I've never even asked myself, or anyone for that matter... "what causes an upper-level low?". We all seem to know what causes a surface low. But I, for one, just take ULL's as something akin to the sun rising everyday... it just happens from time to time. What really causes an ULL?

A few of the preferred favorable space weather conditions that I wrote about last year, in reference to tropical enhancement and development, are still occurring. Just in other parts of the world. I have written before about how the MJO phases are very important here in regards to locatonal relationships.

Well the ENSO is related to the MJO. This season's ATL activity is being effected by the ULL. But the space weather activity this season seems to be having an effect upon the continual formation of these ATL upper level lows.

So one could make a hypothesis that the atmosphere, which is definitely tilting toward El Nino, is still showing signs of this relationship in the ATL , but it is just at a different atmospheric level.

A quick answer as to the space weather culprit here? Coronal holes have a cooling effect upon certain levels of the troposphere. This has been shown in research. So the presence of them, along with the absence of certain other space weather variables, and the devloping EL Nino, sets the table for these continual upper level lows in the ATL.

Jim, is this forecasted to continue or will there be a change to allow the developement of more tropical systems in the Atlantic later this year.?


Robert

I just found out a short time ago that fairly large sunspot group has rapidly developed overnight. I haven't had the time to look at any magnetograms yet but a couple of solar observers are calling for the possibility of major solar flaring. This magnetically complexed sunspot group increases the chances of us seeing an increase in certain energetic particle levels. This would help tropical development. Even possibly for the ATL . Like I mentioned above though. There are other variables to consider now.

Thanks JIm. PLease keep us updated.


Robert

[Jim Hughes]

what is a coronal hole?

A part of the sun which has open magnetic field lines. It's basically a hole in the corona, almost like a hole in a baloon. We were unable to see this until Skylab. But theories about them were out there.

These open field lines allows the solar wind to escape the grip of the sun's magnetic field. The increased solar wind brings along increased geomagnetic activity and other energetic particles.

As for their possible effect. Do a search for Coronal Holes, Sallie Balinus or Willie Soon, and Troposhere Temperatures.

[Patrick99]

I just don't believe it will really get going out there. There's either something missing, something very unfavorable, or a little of both. Is the "switch" just going to turn on, all of a sudden?

I don't think there will be much...but whatever forms will be tightly clustered around the traditional Labor Day peak. We'll get 1-3 around that time, then nothing for several weeks, then 1-2 around the secondary October maximum, and that'll be it. Just my opinion.

I don't see what is so different about this hurricane season. People write about upper level lows as if they are anomalous features. I seem to remember PLENTY of upper level lows traversing the Atlantic in 2003, 2004, and yes, 2005. They didn't exactly stop development in its tracks those years.

[skysummit]

After last year, almost every year will likely seem quiet. I'm sure it'll get a bit busier down the road. These atmospheric conditions the Atlantic is experience right now is actually normal for the beginning of August.

[Lindaloo]

I really don't care for any strong storms forming this year, as long as they don't hit Louisiana, Southern Florida and Cancun. Those 3 areas need a rest.

So does Mississippi, Alabama and Texas.

[kenl01]

Agreed. We don't need nor can we afford any hurricanes this year or next. I wouldn't mind no landfalling hurricanes for the next 10 years........