I heard more gulf storms for this 2006 season?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Even Upper Level Lows can sometimes produce
strong tropical storm force to hurricane force 75-80 mph
winds in severe thunderstorms that they help fuel.

Several upper level lows that have tracked from the
Bahamas over Florida and into the GOM have produced
afternoon thunderstorms this summer since June over
many states across the Southeast US that have been reported to
produce 60+ mph winds, because of the instability
caused by the cold air in the upper atmosphere
in association with the Upper Level Low.

Upper Level Lows may ironically prevent
hurricane formation but can also produce
severe thunderstorms that generate winds to
hurricane force in gusts.

Upper Level Lows are nice in that they prevent
hurricane formation usually (sometimes they
help ventilate hurricanes and tropical
systems if at a distance from the system)...
but the cold air aloft can produce
very severe thunderstorms that contain
wind conditions similar to wind conditions
expected from strong tropical storms or Category
1 Hurricanes.

[Steve]

will,

There are people trying to prognosticate seasons. None of them has been particularly close. Bastardi has gotten primary targets down fairly well, but missed "bulk of season stuff." Hurricane Alley did okay last year. But this is guesswork, not science. We're just not to that level yet. We can say "patterns favor 'x' or 'y'" but we really don't know until the storms form, move and hit. As someone said above, there is no right or wrong answer until November 30th. This isn't a clear-cut year as it is. Many of us believe the East Coast is at a greater threat. But it's still mostly guesswork. I'm betting on hits on both the Gulf and East Coasts. So just hang tight without being uptight and follow the storms as they form. You should already be prepared if you live on or near the US East or Gulf Cosat. Every year, people need to pay attention from northern Maine to southern Texas. If you get a threat, act and know what to do. If not, don't worry about it. Rather than freaking out every day about this question that can't be answered, brush up on "what to do", "family plans" and such. You can find most of that information on the Tropical Prediction Center's site over at the National Hurricane Center. Google is your friend if you don't already have the link. You, me, the mods, and the posters can't change nature. We can only deal with it ourselves. So knowing what to do is the key. You'll be in better shape and won't need to worry about maybes until they are real threats. Trust me.

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh my god a El nino's here according to accuweathers hurricane expert Joe Bastardi from accuweather and thats stupid because I love hurricanes someone please explain to me whats going on please thanks

We are seeing conditions similar to those produced by El Nino,
although we do not have a moderate or strong El Nino
at the current time. Evidence of these El Nino-ish
conditions is provided by the fact that the Western
Pacific is seeing a very active typhoon season, which usually
occurs during El Nino-ish years since sea surface temperatures
are hotter in the Western Pacific during El Nino-ish years,
the SOI was very negative a few days ago, and shear and especially
Upper Level Lows which keep forming remain over the
Atlantic Basin.

However, we are still having an above normal season so far in 2006
as of August 11th, with 3-4 named storms already
(4 if the system that formed near Nova Scotia
mentioned by WXMAN57 just
prior to the formation time of Tropical Storm Beryl
is classified by the NHC in the post season report),
so the El Nino is not very strong.
According to Dr. Gray, who I trust heavily, this season
will still be above normal in activity in the Atlantic Basin...
just hopefully not as ferocious as 2005.

[Steve]

>>Upper Level Lows may ironically prevent
hurricane formation but can also produce
severe thunderstorms that generate winds to
hurricane force in gusts.

Seen plenty of those this year. However, Upper Level Lows don't prevent hurricane development. They often aid it. And they also, when concentric/circular, often pre-date what ends up happening with the tropical systems. It's just something to watch.
-------------------------------------------------
will,

One more thing. Watch what happens in the Western Pacific as storms hit there. Ones that recurve often predate trofs in the Eastern US by 6-10 days and ones that go into China often predate ridging in the southern Atlantic. If you watch those storms, then you can kind of get the idea for the pattern closer to North America a week out. So if something's coming along, you may already have your answer on a storm-by-storm basis.

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

>>Upper Level Lows may ironically prevent
hurricane formation but can also produce
severe thunderstorms that generate winds to
hurricane force in gusts.

Seen plenty of those this year. However, Upper Level Lows don't prevent hurricane development. They often aid it. And they also, when concentric/circular, often pre-date what ends up happening with the tropical systems. It's just something to watch.
-------------------------------------------------
will,

One more thing. Watch what happens in the Western Pacific as storms hit there. Ones that recurve often predate trofs in the Eastern US by 6-10 days and ones that go into China often predate ridging in the southern Atlantic. If you watch those storms, then you can kind of get the idea for the pattern closer to North America a week out. So if something's coming along, you may already have your answer on a storm-by-storm basis.

Steve

Oh yes thanks for the correction.
ULLs can often aid hurricane
formation.

[brunota2003]

Ok, this here is from the Thu Sept. 11, 2003 Hurricane Isabel Discussion, however is still a good source of info on ridges and troughs:

THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO STATE WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SPECIFIC AREA ALONG THE U.S. COAST WILL BE
IMPACTED BY ISABEL. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN
PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF STEERING FEATURES AT THESE LONG RANGES.

Note that it was written just 7 days before Isabel hit North Carolina and they still had no clue where the ridge and trough were going to set up. You can guess now, but will most likely be wrong, we can't predict with confidence where it is going to set up 7 days out, let alone a month...I hope this answers your question...no one knows where or how intense until it actually is about to hit.

[Steve]

>>Oh yes thanks for the correction.
ULLs can often aid hurricane
formation.

No problem TBH. It depends on the positioning of the tropical system in relation to the upper level low as to whether or not that upper level low shears the system or aids in venting it into the upper atmosphere. You have to take them on a case-by-case basis. But overall, I do agree with you. With tons of them traversing the Atlantic, you're generally not going to get that much development.

Steve

[willjnewton]

okay I read all of the answers, so you may lock this thread, thanks

[cycloneye]

okay I read all of the answers, so you may lock this thread, thanks

Will,you requested the thread to be locked,and that will occur.