Joe Bastardi said a el ninos here?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just want to tell everyone here at storm 2k that I just watched a video from accuweather, and Joe bastardi Is saying that a EL NINO is here, oh dagblasted, I mean this quiet 2006 storm season is making me bored help me someone please, because I love storms and hurricanes because I think there fun please explain someone thanks

A quiet season is much better for us than an active one...
Hurricanes cause too much damage and destruction.

[x-y-no]

Link, please.

http://www.accuweather.com

Click on the video link titled, "Video: Elliot & Steve Discuss the Weekend Weather & El Nino".

It isn't JB talking about it, but it's Accuweather.

Oh ... my ...

All right. I watched it, and all I can say is what a honkin' load of hogwash!

First of all, the NOAA outlook was for a 50% chance of a weak el Nino commencing by the end of the year - but the Accuweather guys didn't say that they just said 50% and then launched right into how they've been saying it's already happening. This was a deceptive attempt to pretend that the CPC outlook supports what they're saying when in fact CPC says neutral conditions for the next three months at least with a gradual trend indicating 50% chance of a weak el Nino by year's end.

Second, a negative SOI is far from all there is to an el Nino. In fact, the only reason a negative SOI is significant to an el Nino is because generally that correlates with a westerly anomaly in the equatorial trade winds and resulting warm anomaly in the Nino 1,2 SSTs. But that response has been weak at best and the recent trend is not indicative of any strengthening of the effect. As the most recent BOM update said:

At odds with the mainly neutral setting is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which has dipped below −10 during the past week as a result of well above average air pressure at Darwin, and consistently below normal air pressure at Tahiti. This indicates a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. However, the Trade Winds have increased to somewhat above average strength during the past week after being suppressed for much of July. There was little response to the weakened July Trades in ocean temperatures, and these remain somewhat above average, both on and below the surface. Therefore there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.

That was just ridiculous.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you for the information X-Y-No.
I was assuming too quickly that a weak El Nino was
possibly taking place just based on SOI and shear and ULL
and the Western Pacific's Active Season even though those
things alone cannot make an El Nino.

[x-y-no]

Additionally, we haven't had the kind of pattern in the Atlantic this year associated with el Nino years - not by any stretch of the imagination. So how can they suggest that an el Nino which doesn't exist is suppressing activity (suppressing it, BTW, all the way down to the 11 year climatological average - not a spectacular feat) by creating upper air patterns completely different from those normally associated with those that are the mechanism by which el Ninos suppress Atlantic tropical storm activity?

[sevenleft]

Will is the best poster ever.

[wxmann_91]

Though not a strong/Super Nino, the latest SOI trends does suggest an El Nino is coming, even though the SSTA's in the equatorial Pacific are not rising.

However, the subsfc anomalies are still there:

(To prevent plagarism, I'll post the link as well: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... enso.shtml)

IMO the warmth will start spreading to the sfc soon.

Since this is occurring so late, a weak to mod El Nino is most likely.

[tgenius]

El Nino forming will continue to inhibit Atlantic storm creation, correct?

[stormcrow]

What you get off the Accuweather free videos is like what you get for free at a garage sale, the "good" stuff is on the pay site.

[rainstorm]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

here are the latest sst's in the pacific. it doesnt look like a strong el nino

[cycloneye]

Pacific Anomalys


What I see in the graphic above are neutral conditions with +0.5c at el nino 3-4. areas which is not a criteria for el nino phase.

[x-y-no]

That depth anomaly is no stronger than it's been looking for months, and overall things aren't particularly much warmer than they were last year except for in the eastern end of the basin.


I argued as early as last February that we're likely to get an el Nino next year, and I still believe that.

What I'm calling BS on is what the Accuweather guys are claiming - which is that it's already happening.

[x-y-no]

El Nino forming will continue to inhibit Atlantic storm creation, correct?

It would if it were happening but it isn't so it won't.

[willjnewton]

So you all our saying that NO one on storm2k knows about Joe Bastardis El nino thinking and how will it affect this season???

[x-y-no]

So you all our saying that NO one on storm2k knows about Joe Bastardis El nino thinking and how will it affect this season???

Well, according to the video I watched, you were right about JB and other mets at Accuweather saying that an el Nino has begun.

They're wrong, however.


As for how Joe Bastardi's El Nino thinking will affect this season - that's easy. It won't affect it one bit.

[willjnewton]

But do you guys really mean that NO one knows on storm2k of what Joe Bastardi of how he thinks that a el nino has begun and what effects might have for this 2006 storm season???, if you answer my question and do it correctly then I will love you all

[Extremeweatherguy]

But do you guys really mean that NO one knows on storm2k of what Joe Bastardi of how he thinks that a el nino has begun and what effects might have for this 2006 storm season???, if you answer my question and do it correctly then I will love you all

According to JB's post yesterday he DOES think a weak El Nino is occuring and thinks that 90% of this seasons storms will occur in a 5-week span, followed by an early end to the season.

I am not sure if I agree with him on the El Nino part, but I do think a 5-week span filled with 90% of this seasons storms is certainly possible.

[SouthFloridawx]

But do you guys really mean that NO one knows on storm2k of what Joe Bastardi of how he thinks that a el nino has begun and what effects might have for this 2006 storm season???, if you answer my question and do it correctly then I will love you all

Will please read each of the posts in the thread very carefully as it has been answered already.

[fwbbreeze]

But do you guys really mean that NO one knows on storm2k of what Joe Bastardi of how he thinks that a el nino has begun and what effects might have for this 2006 storm season???, if you answer my question and do it correctly then I will love you all

[x-y-no]

I think I have answered you, Will.

JB says that an el Nino has begun. I haven't seen his video, because I don't subscribe to Accuweather Pro, but I watched a video on the free site where Eliottt Abrams made the statement that JB says this.

However, JB is wrong. There is no el Nino at this time, nor is one likely for the next couple of months at least. Thus, any conclusions he may draw from this error are meaningless.

That's the best I can do for you.

[willjnewton]

okay I have read everything by me asking the experts with the real data, Now you may Lock this thread, thanks