Predicting who will get what where

[bvigal]

I just want to comment on the speculation about what area of the continental U.S. will get landfalling hurricanes. About the only thing that EVERYONE agrees upon, is that we will have an above average season. As to what will develop, when, and where it will go, this far in advance is pure speculation.

Logic tells us that if expected overall number of hurricanes is above average, then each place they might land also has an above average potential. (if a=b and b=c, then a=c) Even the best experts in the subject do not try to predict exactly where storms will land, those like Grey merely stating probabilities for 3 large areas of coastline: If water is hotter in the gulf and that is a critical ingredient for storms, then the gulf coast is a good bet. If Florida sticks out between two bodies of water, and is the first thing north of the Caribbean, which is all true, then it has a good chance, too. If overall number of storms is expected to be above average, then the east coast above Florida has a higher possibility than "average".

If you go back and read last year, you will read similar speculations. Take for instance TD 12, which became Katrina, the most infamous storm last year. You will read some interesting comments. Even after TD12 developed, many thought that shear would prevent much development, some thought it would go up the east coast, some thought it would go to Mexico (a New Orleans met on tv), and some, of course, correctly predicted a GOM storm. Some said certain models were not reliable, and others were. Some said the opposite.

The point is, that was an example of a tropical depression, already formed, and still there was no knowledge where it would go. Trying to guess where all storms for the whole season will go is just a gambling game. Place your bets and wait for the outcome. Nobody knows for sure.

Many of us suffer from high anxiety the whole hurricane season. Others are wishing hard for some excitement. We can postulate and wish all we want, and it won't have one bit of impact on the outcome.

This is a place where we can "think out loud", share ideas and theories, compare thinking, get feedback, and learn. But no one should seriously think that reading this forum will help them know what is going to happen where they live. Be prepared, be vigilant, keep your cool, and pray you don't have to find out how well you prepared!!

[cycloneye]

bvigal,that's a great message.

[SouthFloridawx]

100% Agreed (TM)

[bvigal]

Thanks!

Some very interesting reading...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69988
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69926
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69708

[Extremeweatherguy]

very good post bvigal.

[secretforecaster]

Great, great post!!!

[EDR1222]

Good post and that is definately the right approach I think for everyone.

[flyingphish]

Good Message. I remember watching Katrina do the SW tumble across S. Fl. She was not named at that point, but she made alot of forecasters look powerless. I was convinced that she was a "killer" once she meandered west of the Fl. Keys. Just watched in awe as she grew.

[bvigal]

I'm bumping this for benefit of the many who may only occasionally read this forum. Don't worry, just be prepared!

[tgenius]

Good Message. I remember watching Katrina do the SW tumble across S. Fl. She was not named at that point, but she made alot of forecasters look powerless. I was convinced that she was a "killer" once she meandered west of the Fl. Keys. Just watched in awe as she grew.

Katrina was a cat1 when she crossed FL, FYI, as the Eye of the storm went through Kendall, FL.

[Robjohn53]

Great Post, Great Message,bvigal for all that will and might wonder...I myself enjoyed reading that.