(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.3N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR AN
AREA OF TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE EVIDENT IN A 090737Z
QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ENHANCED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS DISTURB-
ANCE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT,
STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CYCLONIC
TURNING INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
Tropical Storm (0610) WUKONG at WPAC
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-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. A 102211Z SSMI PASS REVEALED AN
ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING WEAKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
REVEALED 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB OVER THE MARIANAS, WITHIN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 101954Z QUIKSCAT
PASS CONFIRMED A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. A 102211Z SSMI PASS REVEALED AN
ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING WEAKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
REVEALED 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB OVER THE MARIANAS, WITHIN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 101954Z QUIKSCAT
PASS CONFIRMED A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 40N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 150E TO 40N 151E 40N 152E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 38N 153E 36N 155E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 38N 152E 35N 150E 34N 148E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 40N 142E
42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 33N 160E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 40N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 150E TO 40N 151E 40N 152E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 38N 153E 36N 155E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 152E TO 38N 152E 35N 150E 34N 148E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 40N 142E
42N 142E 51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 33N 160E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
We got a upper ULL around 22/25 north/136 west. On the eastern side you see that convection forming. Remember systems like Bill and many more. The JMA is forecasting that area near 21 north/142 or so west to form into a TD now.
Also theres one over the china sea by 48 hours they also forecast developing.
Also theres one over the china sea by 48 hours they also forecast developing.
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The 10th storm, Bopha, climatologically forms at the end of July.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
TD...
8:30pm
8-11-2006
T numbers are at 1.0=25 knots. The quickscats shows a large LLC centered at 17/142.5. Most of the convection is to the northwest sheared by the upper low. A slow movement to the north or northwest should be expected.
Now 25 knots
6 25 knots
12 30 knots
24 35 knots
This is not offical...This is a test to work on my strength forecasting and tropical cyclone formation knowledge.
8:30pm
8-11-2006
T numbers are at 1.0=25 knots. The quickscats shows a large LLC centered at 17/142.5. Most of the convection is to the northwest sheared by the upper low. A slow movement to the north or northwest should be expected.
Now 25 knots
6 25 knots
12 30 knots
24 35 knots
This is not offical...This is a test to work on my strength forecasting and tropical cyclone formation knowledge.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
This is a TD now and there is another low pressure area.
WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 41N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 136E 36N 141E
41N 141E 44N 146E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 30N 160E 30N
136E 33N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 44N 170E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 20N 141E NORTH SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 14N 117E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 30N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 41N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 136E 36N 141E
41N 141E 44N 146E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 30N 160E 30N
136E 33N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1020 HPA AT 44N 170E NORTH 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 20N 141E NORTH SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 14N 117E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 30N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
I'll continue posting here, unless advised otherwise, as Matt started this thread a couple of days ago.
Right looking at the latest advisory RSMC Tokyo expect to this to be TS Wukong fairly soon as the 24 hour forecast intensity is up to 40kts from 35kts.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 25.9N 139.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
Right looking at the latest advisory RSMC Tokyo expect to this to be TS Wukong fairly soon as the 24 hour forecast intensity is up to 40kts from 35kts.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 25.9N 139.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
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