System developing at 15 north/128 west(West Pacific)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks organized enough for its own thread.

15 north/128 west system looks to be organizing fast. Inflow developing with minus 80 convection. This is heading westward.

[WindRunner]

Problem is, Matt, that it isn't spinning. Also, it'll be heading westward, which means that its inflow will start to be restricted by the northern Philippines. Definately something to watch in the trough, but nothing that's an impending TC.

[WindRunner]

Well, you called Invest 95W two days in advance . . . good job Matt . . . but it still doesn't look all that promising right now.

[WindRunner]

OK . . . now this area is 96W, with a TCFA out.



1002hPa low per JMA

WWJP25 RJTD 130600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 142E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 43N 180E 33N 160E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 55N 141E NNE 10 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 44N 151E NORTH 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 16N 114E WNW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 17N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 30N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 992 HPA AT 25.7N 138.4E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[bob rulz]

Is it just me or does this already look like a tropical depression?

[P.K.]

This is now a TD.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 17.0N 129.0E POOR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 19.0N 132.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[wxmann_91]

TD 12W for the JTWC.

The forecast for this one is very tough. It's a battle between the trough 11W will leave behind and the strong ridge to where Saomai once was. This may end up having a pretty weird track as steering currents are abnormal and unpredictable attm.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to TS Sonamu (0611) overnight.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 18.7N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 22.1N 137.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 160600UTC 29.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION