Joe Bastardi's el nino thinking

[willjnewton]

since Joe Bastardi thinks that a el nino has begun, does Joe Bastardi still thinks that this 2006 storm season is still going to be above average???I am confused, please explain and thankyou so much for your responses

[willjnewton]

I am NOT trying to be impatient or rude but can someone please answer my question, okay thankyou so much

[x-y-no]

Hi, Will!


As I understand it, JB thinks the season will be short, only 5 weeks or so. If he's right about that, then it would be pretty hard to have an above average season.


But as we said yesterday, he's just plain wrong about an el Nino already having started. It hasn't. If that's the basis of his reasoning, then I'd just discount what he's saying because the premise is just plain false.

[willjnewton]

since JB from accuweather said a El nino has begun, is he still concerned about the northeast of the united states will get hit by this storm season or NOT really???

[Cyclenall]

since JB from accuweather said a El nino has begun, is he still concerned about the northeast of the united states will get hit by this storm season or NOT really???

Yes, I believe JB is still concerned about the North-East getting hit this season. He has been talking about it for a long while now.

[willjnewton]

but if he still thinks that the northeast of the united states might get hit for this season than why does he think a el nino???

[Cyclenall]

but if he still thinks that the northeast of the united states might get hit for this season than why does he think a el nino???

The reason is those 2 things aren't the same. An El Nino existing doesn't mean that the North-East is off the hook for a hit, but much less Atlantic tropical cyclones in general. I don't believe that an El Nino is really here presently but people think that it is the start of a El Nino.

[vacanechaser]

but if he still thinks that the northeast of the united states might get hit for this season than why does he think a el nino???

whether he thinks there is an el nino or not does not change the chances for the east coast at this point... he is wrong about the el nino... everything is as it was yesterday... no change...

[Extremeweatherguy]

As far as I know...he still thinks this will be an above average (but short) season.

[sevenleft]

The water could be 40 degrees with 50 knot vertical shear dominating the entire Atlantic ocean and he would still be concerned about hurricanes hitting the US.

[x-y-no]

but if he still thinks that the northeast of the united states might get hit for this season than why does he think a el nino???

Will, I can't tell you why he says there's an el Nino, I can only tell you that's wrong.

His prediction regarding an above average chance of an east coast hit is based on the mean position of the mid-latitude ridges/troughs, and I'd say it's reasonable.

Keep in mind though it's a probability, not a certainty. While I agree with him that the east coast is at higher risk this year than, say, the mid Gulf coast (not Texas and South/Central Florida, which are also fairly high risk IMHO) that doesn't mean Louisiana is safe or that any of those high risk areas will actually be hit.

[willjnewton]

thankyou all so much for your responses

[willjnewton]

and also looking at the sea surface anomaly temperature map that was updated today on the 12th of august, it looks like that there are some COOL pockets now or small ones and that the far eastern pacific around the dateline is Very close to average, although on the warm side of Average

[vacanechaser]

and also looking at the sea surface anomaly temperature map that was updated today on the 12th of august, it looks like that there are some COOL pockets now or small ones and that the far eastern pacific around the dateline is Very close to average, although on the warm side of Average

thats correct william... meaning no el nino...

[willjnewton]

okay thanks

[willjnewton]

and you may lock this threaD now, thankyou for your responses

[Dustin]

why lock it, will?

[Jim Hughes]

Hi, Will!


As I understand it, JB thinks the season will be short, only 5 weeks or so. If he's right about that, then it would be pretty hard to have an above average season.


But as we said yesterday, he's just plain wrong about an el Nino already having started. It hasn't. If that's the basis of his reasoning, then I'd just discount what he's saying because the premise is just plain false.

I am sorry Jan but I could not disagree with you more here and I am surprised by some of the comments within this forum about the current state of the ENSO or where it is going.

You are contradicting past comments by the likes of NOAA etc...when you say that JB is wrong when he says that an El Nino is underway.

Some researchers in the past had tried to link volcanic eruptions, like EL Chichon, to the development of the EL Nino but the so called experts responded by saying that the development of the EL Nino was already underway prior to it's eruption in March of 1982.

Could you please tell me how you or anyone can say that an El Nino is not already in the early developmental stages when the very same organization used the same guidelines, that are currently around today, to come to the conclusion that an EL Nino formation was already underway prior to it's eruption, to dismiss a possible relationship between the two ?

Nobody can have it both ways.

[george_r_1961]

I am NOT trying to be impatient or rude but can someone please answer my question, okay thankyou so much

Will we will be more than happy to answer any questions u may have. But please give it time. You may get an answer in minutes or it may take a few hours.

[willjnewton]

okay thanks, I get the message or I read it