1011mb surface low near Lesser Antilles

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 500NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V PATTERN.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOES LIE W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 53W
AND 57W...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER HIGH JUST TO THE NW OF THE WAVE. A 1011MB
SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 12N52W DUE TO
THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL EVIDENT IN THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE IMAGERY
AND SOME REFLECTION OF THIS EVIDENT IN THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT
PASS.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z Surface Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

At the moment is nothing more than a naked swirl
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

At the very least, it is SOMETHING to watch. However, until this is past 70W, I think the chances of development with this are below 10%.

[OURAGAN]

Pressure is falling at buoy 41040, 2 degrees North were the low is located.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN.

[HUC]

Pressure is falling at buoy 41040, 2 degrees North were the low is located.

This is the normal barometric low of the afternoon,i think...

[colbroe]

Look at the nice blow up of clouds just off barbados , seems like the waters in that area are very warm , and also no dust

[Dean4Storms]

There is an increase of convection this evening with this Wave and low, although there is not a hint of development with the models on this wave or any other for that matter.

[Nimbus]

Made me look! Well if the low catches up with the convection maybe this will flare up like Chris did?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Persistence is the key. If the convection still looks good tomorrow, then I will watch it more carefully.

[ROCK]

Persistence is the key. If the convection still looks good tomorrow, then I will watch it more carefully.

I agree. Looks to me the convection in front of the wave looks to be back building towards the surface low vicinity. Lets see if there is anything left tomorrow.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection seems to be holding steady this evening.

[stormtruth]

Yes, it does. Could be yet another system trying to trick us tho

[boca]

I haven't been on since early this morning and this wasn't there. Popped up out of nowhere.

[abajan]

I haven't been on since early this morning and this wasn't there. Popped up out of nowhere.

My sentiments exactly.

Right now the lightning is very bright outside and the thunder is getting louder with each flash.

Where on earth did this come from so suddenly?

Gotta run... lightning getting too bright for my liking... need to shut down and unplug computer to protect it.

[Normandy]

Um this actually looks interesting

[Aquawind]

It has potential for sure and now with some convection. There is still a rather dry surrounding enviroment ATM though..

8:05am TWD

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 19N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED
INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW
CLOUD SWIRL IS NOW BENEATH THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W TO
12N61W. ALTHOUGH WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE 19N49W-16N55W.

Good convection still firing this morning..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[caneman]

You beat me too it. Just posted this in another thread. Pressure are dropping. Slowly but steadely

[Nimbus]

Wind observations at Barbados are currently showing winds from the east at only 3 MPH. Over the last 24 hours the average was more like 18 mph, so there may be a storm relative low level circulation nearby.

[TampaFl]

Here is the radar composite for Guadeloupe/Martinique. Not very impressive on radar, but satellite looks better. At least something to watch though.






http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


Robert