Next Area to Watch, East of Florida?

[Dean4Storms]

Both the WRF and GFS to some degree are showing a disturbance forming east of Florida and tracking westward over the state come mid-week. Could be a combination of the TUTT and the tail end of this front coming together. Could be something too watch.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88125

[Stormavoider]

I agree 100%. I have been watching this dieing front and expecting something to happen. It has been producing some extremely low surface pressures when it was off NC.

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88125

Ooops. sorry didn't see the thread on it.

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88125

Ooops. sorry didn't see the thread on it.

It's ok. I was just pointing you to some discussions on it.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This will be an area to watch. The new GFS actually has a surface low in the gulf late next week.

[caneman]

From the 2:00 discussion

A WEAK 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA

[Brent]

This will be an area to watch. The new GFS actually has a surface low in the gulf late next week.

Hmmmmm. It'd have to cross Florida first to do that...

[boca]

If thats the case it would have to move SSW then turn W over Florida.Whats the chances of that happening.

[ronjon]

Interesting forecast the next 72-96 hrs. The UKMET, NOGAPs, CMC, & NAM models all develop low pressure east of FL and move it west across the peninsula into the GOM by Wednesday next week. The GFS has a stronger low NE of the state and sorta splits this energy with one lobe heading NE and another moving SW across FL. None of the models (except NAM) develop the low into a strong feature but given the time of year and the warm Atlantic and GOM waters - this definitely bears watching - especially with so much model support. The low would form from the remnants of an old front off the east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130646
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM(TODAY - TUESDAY)...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA BORDERS THIS MORNING IS PROGD TO
DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW MOVING
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PARENT SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINING WELL NE OF
THE PENINSULA OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAKER WAVE PROPAGATING WEST
ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA. SEEING
THAT THE NAM/UKMET AND GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION REMAINS LOW...SO WILL ERR ON SIDE CAUTION AND USE A
BLEND FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSER TO A WEAKER LOOKING SOLUTION
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEEP MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO
> 2") ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH POPS IN THE HIGH END SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY RANGE. INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW PROFILES VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ONE TO TWO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO ~90. MAV/MET
TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM(TUE NGT - SAT)...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER AND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WEDNESDAY IS THE PERIOD WITH THE LEAST DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
AS THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM. LATEST
TREND ON DGEX AND NAM IS TO DEVELOP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS REFLECTS A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM
EARLIER RUNS WHERE THE MODELS BROUGHT A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AND SLOWLY LIFT THE ENTIRE MOISTURE FIELD NORTHEASTWARD
BY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHICH PULLS THE MOISTURE FIELD WESTWARD AND
INTO THE GULF AREA BY THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND KEEPING THE LOW
EAST OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH EARLIER RUNS IS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UKMET HAD TO BE DISCARDED AS THE CURRENT
DATA FEED IS SHOWING TIMING ISSUES ALONG WITH INCOMPLETE FIELDS.

DESPITE THE DIFFICULTIES IN HANDLING BOTH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES...THERE IS ONE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN ALL MODELS INCLUDING GFS
WHICH IS INCREASING MOISTURE AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE WILL HAVE POPS INCREASED TO 50 PERCENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND KEEP CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE OR AT NORMALS...EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON MAXS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL REMAIN ONE OR
TWO DEGREES BELOW NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES.

&&

[caneman]

Now down to 1011

From the 8:00 discussion

ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N78W CONTINUING W JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA THEN PULLING UP OVER THE SE US

[MortisFL]

Blob flaring up just off the coast of Daytona Beach area.

[Nimbus]

These GOM bound lows always seem to develop at the very end of the trough where the shear and steering from the southeast is its least. The low off the GA/FL border this morning looks like the best candidate so far!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

LOL, this place should be called storm2fl . . .

I can't see any computer models or synoptic features that will allow this to cross Fl and become a storm. Instead, the models show the "area of low pressure" moving away from the coast or towards the mid atl.

[Noah]

And this means heavy rain for sarasota on tues? Im supposed to be driving 2 hours on I75 that day.

[TampaFl]

LOL, this place should be called storm2fl . . .

I can't see any computer models or synoptic features that will allow this to cross Fl and become a storm. Instead, the models show the "area of low pressure" moving away from the coast or towards the mid atl.

With all due respect, not sure what models you are looking at, but correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS is the only model not having the low move over FL.


MM5(FSU)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html


CMC(Canada)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006081300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


NOGAPS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Robert

[Thunder44]

Two things need to happen before this can develop into TC.

First the shear must decrease to less than 20kts (less than 10kts would be more favorable):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Second it has too separate itself from the frontal boundary off SE coast. It may not be long after that happens this becomes a TD.

[BOPPA]

OK - I have a question. I have listened to two local mets this morning. All
they are calling for in this area (Ft. Myers) for next week is a better chance
of rain for the first part of the week. This due to a front that will move across
the state.

They are not mentioning any "development" of anything ??? Is the area being
discussed in this thread a possible developing area of concern?

[TampaFl]

OK - I have a question. I have listened to two local mets this morning. All
they are calling for in this area (Ft. Myers) for next week is a better chance
of rain for the first part of the week. This due to a front that will move across
the state.

They are not mentioning any "development" of anything ??? Is the area being
discussed in this thread a possible developing area of concern?

BOPPA, here is the NWS Discussion from Tampa:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130646
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM(TODAY - TUESDAY)...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA BORDERS THIS MORNING IS PROGD TO
DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW MOVING
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PARENT SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINING WELL NE OF
THE PENINSULA OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAKER WAVE PROPAGATING WEST
ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA. SEEING
THAT THE NAM/UKMET AND GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION REMAINS LOW...SO WILL ERR ON SIDE CAUTION AND USE A
BLEND FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSER TO A WEAKER LOOKING SOLUTION
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEEP MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO
> 2") ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH POPS IN THE HIGH END SCATTERED TO LIKELY CATEGORY RANGE. INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW PROFILES VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ONE TO TWO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO ~90. MAV/MET
TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM(TUE NGT - SAT)...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER AND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WEDNESDAY IS THE PERIOD WITH THE LEAST DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
AS THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM. LATEST
TREND ON DGEX AND NAM IS TO DEVELOP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS REFLECTS A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM
EARLIER RUNS WHERE THE MODELS BROUGHT A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AND SLOWLY LIFT THE ENTIRE MOISTURE FIELD NORTHEASTWARD
BY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHICH PULLS THE MOISTURE FIELD WESTWARD AND
INTO THE GULF AREA BY THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND KEEPING THE LOW
EAST OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH EARLIER RUNS IS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORM THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UKMET HAD TO BE DISCARDED AS THE CURRENT
DATA FEED IS SHOWING TIMING ISSUES ALONG WITH INCOMPLETE FIELDS.

DESPITE THE DIFFICULTIES IN HANDLING BOTH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES...THERE IS ONE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN ALL MODELS INCLUDING GFS
WHICH IS INCREASING MOISTURE AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE WILL HAVE POPS INCREASED TO 50 PERCENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND KEEP CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE OR AT NORMALS...EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON MAXS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL REMAIN ONE OR
TWO DEGREES BELOW NORMALS AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES.

&&


Hope this helps.

Robert