Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rjgator]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[brunota2003]

I've already posted a bunch of info in this thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88143

[storms in NC]

don't look like any one is watching this one.

[brunota2003]

I see that...I would post the model runs and all that...but I dont know where they get them...

[NONAME]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060813 1200 060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 77.0W 29.8N 76.5W 29.5N 77.2W 29.7N 78.4W
BAMM 30.5N 77.0W 30.0N 76.9W 29.9N 77.5W 30.2N 78.4W
A98E 30.5N 77.0W 29.9N 74.8W 29.6N 74.0W 30.2N 73.9W
LBAR 30.5N 77.0W 29.8N 75.1W 30.2N 73.5W 30.9N 72.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060815 1200 060816 1200 060817 1200 060818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.2N 79.7W 30.9N 82.2W 31.0N 85.5W 31.7N 89.7W
BAMM 30.7N 79.4W 31.7N 81.3W 32.3N 83.8W 32.9N 86.6W
A98E 31.3N 74.5W 33.0N 74.5W 34.2N 72.7W 34.6N 70.2W
LBAR 32.1N 71.7W 35.1N 69.9W 39.5N 64.4W 46.4N 53.9W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 43KTS 38KTS
DSHP 33KTS 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 115DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 31.5N LONM12 = 79.9W DIRM12 = 122DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 32.9N LONM24 = 82.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Link http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06081314

[brunota2003]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

most of the models I have looked at, they analize this area as turning into a cold core low, then gradually becoming a shallow warm core system. then the models that do pick up on the area move it SW and then W into the east coast of Florida...strength is weak at this time, but should be an interesting area to watch...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
though I dont think it needs the disclaimer...figured I'd be on the safe side of things...

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see this forming that far north. It will need to separate from the front and I believe the formation takes place if at all down near the northern Bahamas.

[storms in NC]

Isn't to turn back to the North or North west in a few days

[CronkPSU]

wow, those model plots are crazy, looks like some kind of spider or something

[storms in NC]

It is cause they don't have a handle on it yet. It is just I93. But I will watch it cause it is too close to home. An if it does separate from the front and it will form down around the bahamas. The gulf stream is what will help I93 to go to TD.JMO

[stormtruth]

Poor 93L. Not as many posts about him Those are some crazy spider-like model plots!

[brunota2003]

Recon plan of the day is out...not even a mention of a possible invest for this area in the next few days...

[TampaFl]

From NWS Miami:

FXUS62 KMFL 131645
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUAL SUMMER COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
HAS REACHED 30N LATITUDE. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY BASICALLY
STEMS FROM ISSUES RELATED TO THIS FRONT. NAM HAS GENERALLY BEEN
LOOKING DUBIOUS IN RAPIDLY GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...THEN MOVING THE LOW TOWARD THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. LATEST RUN LOOKS WORSE THAN PREVIOUS
ONES. GFS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND
PLACES IT FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
TO BE STALLING. STEERING FLOW SHOULD PICK UP ANY SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT AND PULL IT NORTH. LATEST GFS RUN IS DOING JUST THAT.
ENTIRE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING...TO BE SURE. MODELS DO AGREE IN
BRINGING UPPER LOW ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK AND REMAINDER FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I like what the European and GFS models have been showing. Tropical development will be possible in the Eastern Gulf this week. System should develop along old boundary. Massive upper high over the southern plains building in as we speak will carry the system west to west southwest this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I like what the European and GFS models have been showing. Tropical development will be possible in the Eastern Gulf this week. System should develop along old boundary. Massive upper high over the southern plains building in as we speak will carry the system west to west southwest this week.

so really the Gulf could be looking at two areas of concern by late week (the system in the Caribbean AND 93L)? Could get interesting. Let's just hope none of the systems get too strong.

[Portastorm]

Strong or not, I just want some rain for Pete's sake! The broiler is on here in Texas and it doesn't look to end very soon.

[skysummit]

Strong or not, I just want some rain for Pete's sake! The broiler is on here in Texas and it doesn't look to end very soon.

Strong or not???? Yea...well, that's b/c you're way up there in Austin.

[ConvergenceZone]

I like what the European and GFS models have been showing. Tropical development will be possible in the Eastern Gulf this week. System should develop along old boundary. Massive upper high over the southern plains building in as we speak will carry the system west to west southwest this week.

so really the Gulf could be looking at two areas of concern by late week (the system in the Caribbean AND 93L)? Could get interesting. Let's just hope none of the systems get too strong.

This is the one I'm going to follow! I'm not worried too much about the other invest as there seems to be alot of shear in the Carib(again), and according to the mets, a high pressure is forecast to be in the gulf sending that Invest into the Yuk.

This one would be ALOT more likely to be a USA threat and better conditions to develop, but it would take longer to get going intitially I'm sure. So this is the one I've got my eye on. The 15th is only 2 days away, so it's right on target!!

[Aquawind]

Oh that's right this again..we have been talking about this possibility for quite awhile now. Glad to see some rain it's been dry for a couple weeks now. I will run it through the link guantlet now..