Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

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rjgator
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Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

#1 Postby rjgator » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:31 am

Lets use this thread.
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#2 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:34 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Looks Good for a wave that had no convection 24 hours ago.
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Trugunzn » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:36 am

Is this invest 92l?

Image
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#4 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:36 am

Now the question is: Is everything in the upper atmosphere similar to Chris/91L so it will rip 92L apart?
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#5 Postby Meso » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:38 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Latest shear tendancy map
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#6 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:41 am

Sure looks like if 92l stays south a bit will avoid alot of that shear...
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#7 Postby rjgator » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:42 am

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

48 Hour shear
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#8 Postby vaffie » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:42 am

Shear looks pretty minimal. It's amazing how fast this thing has just developed. It looks like the upper level flow for the next 4 days over the eastern and central Caribbean will be light and east to west--ideal for tropical development of a westerly tracking storm.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... e&pid=none
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none
Last edited by vaffie on Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#9 Postby gtsmith » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:45 am

looks pretty far south...anybody have links to the steering currents map?
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#10 Postby Meso » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:47 am

Yeah, sure doesn't look too bad in the near future... and if the gulf remains in that shear level when it reaches there... it could really have potential.. Wonder what the 11:30 am TWO will say
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#11 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:48 am

well it has more convection than the last invest had
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#12 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:51 am

700 to 850
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

500 to 850
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF
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#13 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:54 am

:eek:

This one looks ominous. Lots of warm water ahead.
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#14 Postby gtsmith » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:54 am

thanks tailgater...so it looks like a due west track
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#15 Postby gtsmith » Sun Aug 13, 2006 9:55 am

even with these steering currents, does the old adage that if it intensifies it turns more northerly still hold true?
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#16 Postby NONAME » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:02 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060813 1200 060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 59.6W 13.7N 62.0W 14.0N 64.4W 14.3N 67.0W
BAMM 13.3N 59.6W 13.9N 62.0W 14.3N 64.3W 14.6N 66.8W
A98E 13.3N 59.6W 14.0N 61.6W 14.7N 63.9W 15.5N 66.3W
LBAR 13.3N 59.6W 13.8N 62.2W 14.5N 64.6W 15.1N 67.2W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060815 1200 060816 1200 060817 1200 060818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 69.6W 15.5N 74.6W 16.0N 79.4W 16.6N 83.3W
BAMM 14.9N 69.5W 15.6N 75.1W 16.1N 81.0W 16.8N 86.4W
A98E 16.6N 68.8W 18.8N 74.1W 20.9N 78.7W 21.7N 82.6W
LBAR 15.3N 69.8W 15.7N 75.1W 15.8N 80.4W 14.9N 85.2W
SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 57KTS 60KTS

Link http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ic/models/
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#17 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:04 am

where did you get that NHC data?
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#18 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:08 am

the nhc noaa floater number 2 is not updating the loop...
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#19 Postby tropicana » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:12 am

Barbados has been reporting steady rain and occasional thunderstorms with the passage of this "invest" , and reported 12mm of rain up to 6am, and 39mm of rain up to 8am at the Grantley Adam's International Airport...so quite hefty amounts.

-justin-
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#20 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:14 am

Image
Last edited by rnbaida on Sun Aug 13, 2006 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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