The IR floater 1 over NE Florida coast and convection appears to be picking up steam now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
Floater 1 shows increased convection NE Fla. coast....
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dixiebreeze
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tropical
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It's funny, because even though I know better, I find myself not worrying too much about systems that develop so close to the coast, and instead focus on the CV activity when it comes to actually worrying, especially this time of the season. Not that I don't pay attention or take close-developing storms seriously, it's just that unless they're completely stalled and/or strengthening rapidly, I feel they're usually too close to gain enough strength before reaching me to get too worked up over.
Did I mention that I know better? I do. Still, I'll look right past something firing up on my doorstep and watch for freight trains coming from across the islands. Does anyone else feel the same sort of false sense of security for close-developing storms?
Did I mention that I know better? I do. Still, I'll look right past something firing up on my doorstep and watch for freight trains coming from across the islands. Does anyone else feel the same sort of false sense of security for close-developing storms?
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Derek Ortt
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From this morning's forecast discusion in Melbourne:
Monday...operational models from WRF and GFS to euros all indicate surface
development along southward sagging frontal trough near state. GFS lies
farthest east of suite with early development of system east of state
and a north movement early in week. This early development may be
resulting from feedback of initialized storm cluster over the Gulf
Stream waters. WRF and euros are indicating development anywhere
from north Bahamas to coastal Florida around Monday with slow drift westward
afterward. Resulting low confidence in placement and timing of
possible system after coordinate west/jax leads to spatially conservative GFS
which allows for future adjustments based on surface genesis closer to
area should it occur. With rather high moisture and west/northwest flow aloft
favoring east peninsula for coverage will keep likely precipitation in forecast
across area.
From this it seems to indicate any development might track westward across Florida, correct? Would this be after the frontal boundary dissipates?
Monday...operational models from WRF and GFS to euros all indicate surface
development along southward sagging frontal trough near state. GFS lies
farthest east of suite with early development of system east of state
and a north movement early in week. This early development may be
resulting from feedback of initialized storm cluster over the Gulf
Stream waters. WRF and euros are indicating development anywhere
from north Bahamas to coastal Florida around Monday with slow drift westward
afterward. Resulting low confidence in placement and timing of
possible system after coordinate west/jax leads to spatially conservative GFS
which allows for future adjustments based on surface genesis closer to
area should it occur. With rather high moisture and west/northwest flow aloft
favoring east peninsula for coverage will keep likely precipitation in forecast
across area.
From this it seems to indicate any development might track westward across Florida, correct? Would this be after the frontal boundary dissipates?
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ConvergenceZone
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the_winds_that_sheared_me
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So I don't think its just you.-
ConvergenceZone
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cheezyWXguy
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southerngale
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the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:any good NON-Java satellite loops? My java dont work
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
Edit: After picking vis, IR, or WV:
Click on animation.
Choose how long you want your loop to be in the drop-down menu.
Make your quality 100%
Do High zoom factor for a better close-up
Click on the disturbance on the map.
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Derek Ortt wrote:of the top 8 most intense hurricanes, only Allen was a CV storm
The rest (except for Gilbert, which formed just east of the islands), formed either in the W Carib or east of Florida
Yep. A scary but useful thing to keep in mind. We don't often get to watch a developed CV track for days before getting here. We get zapped by nearby development in the Bahamas and Caribbean.
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