Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Yankeegirl]

The local met here said that the area off the coast of Florida is going to move to the west over Florida and into the gulf... Then there is a high sitting over the gulf now, that is going to be shifting to the east, so its going to push "whatever" to the western gulf... He said that there are models that he uses that are showing this that he says are very reliable and that we need to keep an eye on the gulf by the end of next week...

[vacanechaser]

can someone post a link to the model graphic.... i cant find it... would like to get a look at those... i see the text print out above...

thanx


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[southerngale]

The local met here said that the area off the coast of Florida is going to move to the west over Florida and into the gulf... Then there is a high sitting over the gulf now, that is going to be shifting to the east, so its going to push "whatever" to the western gulf... He said that there are models that he uses that are showing this that he says are very reliable and that we need to keep an eye on the gulf by the end of next week...

Frank? Neil? Or who?

Just curious.

[TampaFl]

Interesting model run here. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[shortwave]

can see the low pretty well with this loop
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... st_full+12

[Yankeegirl]

Uh.... I wanna say it was ch. 13..I was watching the texans game last night and was too lazy to get up and turn the tv... .David Tillman... I think... Whatever channel the Texans were on is what channel it was on... lol... was that any help??? lol...


BTW-- the Texans won last night!!!! 24-14!!!

[KatDaddy]

Not concerned about either of the invests as potential GOM threats at this point.

[Portastorm]

Strong or not, I just want some rain for Pete's sake! The broiler is on here in Texas and it doesn't look to end very soon.

Strong or not???? Yea...well, that's b/c you're way up there in Austin.

Guilty as charged!

I'm officially rooting for a strong wave that produces beneficial rains and nothing more. Better?!

[ConvergenceZone]

Not concerned about either of the invests as potential GOM threats at this point.

Yea it's a bit early with this system , but a couple of days from now the system might have a chance to really start getting its act together and we won't be saying that.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[vacanechaser]

here is the NAM

72hrs..

78hrs..

84hrs..


my experiance with the nam is it works fairly well with close development of systems like this... of course it is just one solution... certainly interesting and one to watch


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa:

FXUS62 KTBW 131800
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (TON-TUE)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ON
TUESDAY. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL ATTM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS MOVING THE SYSTEM
GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY...SO WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TUESDAY THAN MAV GUIDANCE. BUT WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS POPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TRACK SYSTEM TAKES. IF IT DOES TRACK NORTH PER THE GFS
SOLUTION...IT WOULD ADVECT DRIER AIR DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WOULD DECREASE
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED AS MOST MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOW THAT ENDS UP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD AND MEANDERS TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT WELL EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NAM/DGEX SOLUTION TAKES A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE
BAHAMAS...THEN TURNS IT WEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME I PREFER TO SHOW
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
NEAR OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME.
ASSUMING WE DON'T SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...BUT RETURN SOUTHEAST
FLOW EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT INLAND BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MARCHES SWIFTLY TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MFVR CONDITIONS AT LOCAL
TERMINALS AS LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVE IN OFF THE GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

[storms in NC]

This just maybe Debby in a few days.

[JonathanBelles]

a tammy like storm?

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I wouldnt expect much from a system that close to land, Kindof reminds me of Ophellia from last year.

[storms in NC]

Yeah Ophellia tore up our beaches here. She was a cat1.

[Thunder44]

934
WHXX01 KWBC 131812
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060813 1800 060814 0600 060814 1800 060815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.2N 76.7W 29.7N 76.7W 29.6N 77.7W 29.9N 79.0W
BAMM 30.2N 76.7W 29.7N 76.8W 29.7N 77.5W 30.0N 78.4W
A98E 30.2N 76.7W 29.7N 75.2W 29.6N 74.9W 29.9N 75.0W
LBAR 30.2N 76.7W 29.5N 75.2W 29.5N 74.2W 30.2N 73.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060815 1800 060816 1800 060817 1800 060818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 80.2W 30.9N 82.5W 30.8N 85.8W 31.5N 89.3W
BAMM 30.6N 79.3W 31.4N 81.0W 32.0N 83.2W 32.6N 85.2W
A98E 30.8N 75.7W 31.5N 75.2W 31.8N 73.6W 31.5N 71.0W
LBAR 31.4N 73.4W 33.9N 71.7W 37.7N 66.9W 43.1N 58.9W
SHIP 34KTS 42KTS 42KTS 36KTS
DSHP 34KTS 42KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.2N LONCUR = 76.7W DIRCUR = 115DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 31.0N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 117DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 32.2N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Gorky]

The GDFL has this thing wandering all over the place. South East for a day, then backtracking North West towards the SC/NC border. Stalling it as a weak hurricane off the coast, before sending it South West parallel to the coast towards Florida. That'll be a strange track if the GDFL prediction is correct

[SouthFloridawx]

I wonder how well the global models do with a frontal low... then being cut off. I don't htink they are handling it well. We'll have to wait to see if this low deepens so they can initiate it properly

[mtm4319]

At long last, someone is posting a model plot:


http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93