Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

[Sanibel]

Look at the visible floater zoom east of Barbados.

There is a faint, but clearly visible surface spiral.

[southerngale]

but do you all think that this disturbance will develop today???

I doubt it, but anything is possible. Just wait and see.

and where is it now???

It's just entering the Eastern Caribbean.

and where will it head???

I think generally westward.

[willjnewton]

okay thanks

[Thunder44]

Can someone fill me in on what is going on here?

There's a tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles that has gotten a little better organzied today. TPC wants to send a plane there this afternoon, althought it doesn't appear by looking at surface obs there is a closed LLC.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure if the plane even went out today, as there are no sobs that have been transmitted

[destro34]

models runs for this system..please post.. luis we need you here.. iwas looking for it..but maybe the server is down or my pc is loko,will be thankfull if you give me some direction where can i find them.. thanks in advanced

[bvigal]

I don't think this has much potential for the short term. I'm not sure if NHC really sees something special about this wave, of if they have a timeframe for plane being in St. Croix.

Anybody know how long the plane stays there? Because I know it's not permanent, usually there for something big or for research project. Maybe they are done with research project and want something to fly before returning to mainland?

and where will it head???

Will, nobody knows where the system will go, since it hasn't developed into anything yet. Organization has a huge impact upon the track. And it may not become anything at all. Maybe you could keep an eye on the cyclogenesis models, which might give estimate of development and direction of travel:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[southerngale]

[destro34]

the plane is going out today

[Thunder44]

the plane is going out today

According to schedule the plane should of left almost 2 hours ago.

[miamicanes177]

I'm not sure if the plane even went out today, as there are no sobs that have been transmitted

the flight was not cancelled so obviously they will investigate it today.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though it doesn't look like a USA threat due to the high that's forecast to build in the gulf and shove it way south, hopefully there won't be too much in terms of flooding rains....

Wow, we've been so blessed this year with high pressure protecting the USA from potential landfalling storms. That sure wasn't the case last year!

[storms in NC]

I think they will cancel it. I can't see why they would go when it is not a closed low. But JMO Wait and see. They may just want a Sunday ride LOL

[Thunder44]

I do see a low-level circulation under the cirrus clouds but it doesn't look closed yet.

[O Town]

I think they will cancel it. I can't see why they would go when it is not a closed low. But JMO Wait and see. They may just want a Sunday ride LOL

That is one of the reasons why they fly into these invests, to see IF there is a closed LLC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the 2:05pm discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1012MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N58W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W.

[Thunder44]

Grenada is now reporting at 2pm a light wind out WNW at 5mph with pressure down 1012mb. Last hour they reported ESE wind.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/GD.html

[Normandy]

^ That means the circ is probably more defined now

V - or not

[wxman57]

Grenada is now reporting at 2pm a light wind out WNW at 5mph with pressure down 1012mb. Last hour they reported ESE wind.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/GD.html

That looks like a light sea-breeze - local effect. The wind at St. Vincent to the north of Grenada is out of the east, as it St. Lucia to the north. The mid level swirl is just south of St. Lucia. No LLC evidend on surface plots, just a weak mid level vortex - a good bit weaker than 91L's a few days ago. Thunderstorms are diminishing now. Slight chance of development over the next few days. Noting imminent, and no reason for recon today.

[miamicanes177]

han 91L's a few days ago. Thunderstorms are diminishing now. Slight chance of development over the next few days. Noting imminent, and no reason for recon today.

It will be in an area of 5-10kts of wind shear the next several days. I assume you expect dry air to be the reason you give this a 20% chance of developing? I'm with the NHC on this, I do not believe we can write this off today.