Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

[KatDaddy]

Jeff Master's chimes in at his WeatherUnderground Blog:

Tropical wave near Barbados

A tropical wave near Barbados is producing heavy rain in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands today as it moves westward at 10-15 mph. Barbados has reported some heavy rain with this system, but winds have been below 20 mph on the island, and the QuikSCAT satellite did not see any winds over 20 mph in a 6:14am EDT pass today. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which should keep development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots in the Eastern Caribbean through Tuesday, so the wave has some potential for development once the dry air surrounding it becomes more dilute.

[AnnularCane]

I'm looking at the visible loop on the NHC site, but it seems to be rather outdated. I think it's from last night.

[wxman57]

han 91L's a few days ago. Thunderstorms are diminishing now. Slight chance of development over the next few days. Noting imminent, and no reason for recon today.

It will be in an area of 5-10kts of wind shear the next several days. I assume you expect dry air to be the reason you give this a 20% chance of developing? I'm with the NHC on this, I do not believe we can write this off today.

I'm curious. How do you (or anyone else) interpret the following statement in terms of a percent chance of development? The NHC never quantifies development potential with a percentage.

"THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

I certainly agree with the NHC that there is some chance of development over the next few days.

[ROCK]

han 91L's a few days ago. Thunderstorms are diminishing now. Slight chance of development over the next few days. Noting imminent, and no reason for recon today.

It will be in an area of 5-10kts of wind shear the next several days. I assume you expect dry air to be the reason you give this a 20% chance of developing? I'm with the NHC on this, I do not believe we can write this off today.

I'm curious. How do you (or anyone else) interpret the following statement in terms of a percent chance of development? The NHC never quantifies development potential with a percentage.

"THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

I certainly agree with the NHC that there is some chance of development over the next few days.

20% sounds about right for the given statement though with all the dry air it might be to high........

[miamicanes177]

I'm curious. How do you (or anyone else) interpret the following statement in terms of a percent chance of development? The NHC never quantifies development potential with a percentage.

"THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

I certainly agree with the NHC that there is some chance of development over the next few days.

Please tell me where I interpreted the NHC statement to mean a certain percent chance of development? I said I was with the NHC in that we can not write this off today. I was respectfully wondering what gave the confidence to give it "as much as a 20% chance" of becoming a tropical storm. It will be in an enviornment with 5-10kts of wind shear over the next few days. I assume you are very concerned with dry air? Just curious as to how you arrive at the 20%.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is encountering dry air though...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[wxman57]

I'm curious. How do you (or anyone else) interpret the following statement in terms of a percent chance of development? The NHC never quantifies development potential with a percentage.

"THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH."

I certainly agree with the NHC that there is some chance of development over the next few days.

Please tell me where I interpreted the NHC statement to mean a certain percent chance of development? I said I was with the NHC in that we can not write this off today. I was respectfully wondering what gave the confidence to give it "as much as a 20% chance" of becoming a tropical storm. It will be in an enviornment with 5-10kts of wind shear over the next few days. I assume you are very concerned with dry air? Just curious as to how you arrive at the 20%.

I didn't mean to imply that you had attributed any percent chance to the NHC statement. I was just curious as to what their statement meant. Dry air and lack of convergence are its problems presently. In the future, shear may be increasing.

[southerngale]

wxman57...I believe miamicanes177 was inquiring about your post from this morning.

IF WE HAVE RECONS GOING IN WITH THE FIRST DISCUSSION ON THIS INVEST WE HAVE SOMETHING MAJOR>>>>

Not necessarily, I believe that recon is already positioned nearby. Currently, it IS just a thunderstorm or two, but it appears to have good outflow. Certianly no LLC, but there is a mid-level vorticity center (spin). I think it may have as much as a 20% shot at becomming a TS in the next few days. Fairly strong ridge builds over the north-central Gulf by the end of this week. That should prevent any NW movement toward the central Gulf. More likely, a W-WNW track toward the southern Yucatan.

Also, by Friday, at least the GFS indicates quite high wind shear across the northwest Caribbean. So any movement in that direction would not favor intensification.

Edit: nm, we were replying at the same time

[ConvergenceZone]

I didn't mean to imply that you had attributed any percent chance to the NHC statement. I was just curious as to what their statement meant. Dry air and lack of convergence are its problems presently. In the future, shear may be increasing.

I thought dry air and shear suppose to start reducing this time of year? What the heck is going on? It seems like EVERY single storm that forms can't get going for these 2 reasons. I expected it in July but NOT in mid August., it's like a broken record with every potential wave out there.

[Derek Ortt]

2000 was the same way, and we still had 15 storms

[ConvergenceZone]

2000 was the same way, and we still had 15 storms

but how was 2000 able to have so many storms with all the dry air and shear around? Aren't those 2 factors going against the nature of tropical development?

[Javlin]

2000 was the same way, and we still had 15 storms

I did not know that Derek.I was beginning to wonder and it might still pan out that with the PAC moving that maybe the ATL might be slow this year.This all being relative to the ACE index which the ATL has virtually nothing at the moment but the season is still early though.Slow year will not bother me at all or alot of other folks along the NGOM trying to rebuild.The TUTTs and ULLs rule.

[StrongWind]

Something I learned today:

On the weather channel they showed a sat. sequence (GOES I think) of this. In it was a bright spot that progressed from East to West, right past what is 92L. This was a reflection of the Sun of course.

The comment I found enlightening was the weathercaster said for the reflection to be visible meant the seas were very calm, just minimal swells. Which makes sense. He also said it meant the this system wasn't generating any strong winds to cause wave action and he didn't see any immediate development.

[tropicana]

Trinidad down to the south of the tropical wave recently reported a funnel cloud in the airport's vicinity ...that was at 2000Z 4pm. Temperatures reached 34C 93F now there are thunderstorms being reported and winds veering North westerly.

-justin-

[Derek Ortt]

ther were a bunch of short lived and high latitude storms in 2000

Last year was not normal. Most waves do NOT develop. Usually, only about 5-10% of the waves actually form, and one already has this season

[ConvergenceZone]

ther were a bunch of short lived and high latitude storms in 2000

Last year was not normal. Most waves do NOT develop. Usually, only about 5-10% of the waves actually form, and one already has this season

Well I guess few short lived high latitude storms is much better than the development of strong hurricanes, so that's good news. I still think the NHC is way overboard on the high amount of storms they are calling for.
I just think they are being cautious. Just because some seasons had late starts and were still active, doesn't mean this season will be active if it starts late...It could be just the opposite. Until I see the shear relax and the dry air abate, there's no reason to change my opinion.

[wxboy222]

12Z Models:



INTENSITY:
SHIP: 60 KTS

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR
TODAY WAS CANCELED. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[ROCK]

It is encountering dry air though...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Yes, and on the vis you can see high clouds streaming from the south in the western carib. Way I see it, if dry air doesn't get it the shear in front of it will......at least its something to watch since the tropics have been for the most part dead in August.

[crown]

Trinidad down to the south of the tropical wave recently reported a funnel cloud in the airport's vicinity ...that was at 2000Z 4pm. Temperatures reached 34C 93F now there are thunderstorms being reported and winds veering North westerly.

-justin-

In the early hours of this morning around 3 or 4 there was lots of thunder and lightning in Barbados and rain fell for about an hour.

Winds were light at that time coming for ENE.