Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

[Sanibel]

There's a weak surface feature (or convergence vortex) just ENE of Barbados heading somewhat NW. The mid level convection center we have been watching has blown off with shear. If there is another convection flare up it should be closer to this feature.

It's clearly visible on visible floater loop.


It's possible shear has just stripped this one as well.

[wxman57]

There's a weak surface feature (or convergence vortex) just ENE of Barbados heading somewhat NW. The mid level convection center we have been watching has blown off with shear. If there is another convection flare up it should be closer to this feature.

It's clearly visible on visible floater loop.


It's possible shear has just stripped this one as well.

I actually do see a very low-level swirl ENE of Barbados near 13.2N/58W. Hard to tell which way it's moving, but the convection to the west is moving away fast. Looks a lot less organized than 2-3 hours ago. Chances of development appear to be diminishing.

[southerngale]

It makes a classic hurricane symbol in there though. lol

[Grease Monkey]

[destro34]

i do not know, but this season is the most strange one i have ever seen , boys and girls..mrs. and mr. shears are on vacation in the caribbean, and they are here to stay

[Yankeegirl]

Thats gotta be the next storm, debby.... Only females show off their artful talents!!

[stormtruth]

Chris has warned all the upcoming storms not to do any better than him.

[fci]

:sleeping:

Perhaps you should take a nap since you made the same exact Emoticon post in the 92L thread AND the 93L thread.

Are we boring you here??!!!

Do you really think it is useful to just post an emoticon in 2 different threads?
If you really have something to add to the conversation have at it !!
Unless you have some fascination with emoticons......

In which case you amuse quite easily and would really have a ball if you click on the "View More Emoticons". It opens a WHOLE PAGE OF THEM!!!!

Seriously, please read the guidelines and rules which suggest posts of just an emoticon are a waste of time and band width and you should restrict your posts to things that add to the thread.

fci

[Weatherfreak14]

This wave does look interesting. Although all of them did and none formed.

[sevenleft]

:sleeping:

Perhaps you should take a nap since you made the same exact Emoticon post in the 92L thread AND the 93L thread.

Are we boring you here??!!!

Do you really think it is useful to just post an emoticon in 2 different threads?
If you really have something to add to the conversation have at it !!
Unless you have some fascination with emoticons......

In which case you amuse quite easily and would really have a ball if you click on the "View More Emoticons". It opens a WHOLE PAGE OF THEM!!!!

Seriously, please read the guidelines and rules which suggest posts of just an emoticon are a waste of time and band width and you should restrict your posts to things that add to the thread.

fci

The majority of the posts in these threads aren't any more useful than the single emoticon posts....

[StormWarning1]

:sleeping:

Perhaps you should take a nap since you made the same exact Emoticon post in the 92L thread AND the 93L thread.

Are we boring you here??!!!

Do you really think it is useful to just post an emoticon in 2 different threads?
If you really have something to add to the conversation have at it !!
Unless you have some fascination with emoticons......

In which case you amuse quite easily and would really have a ball if you click on the "View More Emoticons". It opens a WHOLE PAGE OF THEM!!!!

Seriously, please read the guidelines and rules which suggest posts of just an emoticon are a waste of time and band width and you should restrict your posts to things that add to the thread.

fci

The majority of the posts in these threads aren't any more useful than the single emoticon posts....

His post sums up 92L and 93L about as good as anything.

[stormtruth]

:sleeping:

Perhaps you should take a nap since you made the same exact Emoticon post in the 92L thread AND the 93L thread.

Are we boring you here??!!!

Do you really think it is useful to just post an emoticon in 2 different threads?
If you really have something to add to the conversation have at it !!
Unless you have some fascination with emoticons......

In which case you amuse quite easily and would really have a ball if you click on the "View More Emoticons". It opens a WHOLE PAGE OF THEM!!!!

Seriously, please read the guidelines and rules which suggest posts of just an emoticon are a waste of time and band width and you should restrict your posts to things that add to the thread.

fci

The majority of the posts in these threads aren't any more useful than the single emoticon posts....

His post sums up 92L and 93L about as good as anything.

One emoticon is worth a thousand words.

[Brent]

There's a weak surface feature (or convergence vortex) just ENE of Barbados heading somewhat NW. The mid level convection center we have been watching has blown off with shear. If there is another convection flare up it should be closer to this feature.

It's clearly visible on visible floater loop.


It's possible shear has just stripped this one as well.

I actually do see a very low-level swirl ENE of Barbados near 13.2N/58W. Hard to tell which way it's moving, but the convection to the west is moving away fast. Looks a lot less organized than 2-3 hours ago. Chances of development appear to be diminishing.

Blah. Story of the season... it's getting very old.

[boca]

This is the story of the wave that could but I think 92L won't make it up the mountain. Like Brent said this season is getting old.

[Thunder44]

There's a weak surface feature (or convergence vortex) just ENE of Barbados heading somewhat NW. The mid level convection center we have been watching has blown off with shear. If there is another convection flare up it should be closer to this feature.

It's clearly visible on visible floater loop.


It's possible shear has just stripped this one as well.

I actually do see a very low-level swirl ENE of Barbados near 13.2N/58W. Hard to tell which way it's moving, but the convection to the west is moving away fast. Looks a lot less organized than 2-3 hours ago. Chances of development appear to be diminishing.

Blah. Story of the season... it's getting very old.

It just seems that way because it seemed like every wave had no problem developing last season. But this season is more normal with most waves not developing.

[cycloneye]

There's a weak surface feature (or convergence vortex) just ENE of Barbados heading somewhat NW. The mid level convection center we have been watching has blown off with shear. If there is another convection flare up it should be closer to this feature.

It's clearly visible on visible floater loop.


It's possible shear has just stripped this one as well.

I actually do see a very low-level swirl ENE of Barbados near 13.2N/58W. Hard to tell which way it's moving, but the convection to the west is moving away fast. Looks a lot less organized than 2-3 hours ago. Chances of development appear to be diminishing.

Blah. Story of the season... it's getting very old.

It just seems that way because it seemed like every wave had no problem developing last season. But this season is more normal with most waves not developing.

And being 2006 a normal season from the average of 100 waves that travel thru the atlantic from Africa every year only a handfull of them will develop.

[Sanibel]

See if the next convection burst pops in the shear downwind from that LL vortex.


The lesson this year is don't get excited with curvature unless it is deep red or purple topped.

[miamicanes177]

And being 2006 a normal season from the average of 100 waves that travel thru the atlantic from Africa every year only a handfull of them will develop.

Actually 2006 is not forecast to be a normal season. It is forecast to be above normal with up to 9 hurricanes, 4 of them being category 3 or higher.

[ROCK]

See if the next convection burst pops in the shear downwind from that LL vortex.


The lesson this year is don't get excited with curvature unless it is deep red or purple topped.

agreed......I have forgot what a deep red purple top looks like.....Maybe I should lurk on the WPAC threads...........

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060814 0000 060814 1200 060815 0000 060815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 58.7W 13.4N 61.3W 13.5N 63.9W 13.6N 66.8W
BAMM 13.5N 58.7W 13.8N 61.2W 14.1N 63.7W 14.2N 66.6W
A98E 13.5N 58.7W 13.6N 59.7W 14.0N 61.3W 14.2N 63.2W
LBAR 13.5N 58.7W 13.6N 60.8W 14.2N 62.9W 14.8N 65.4W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060816 0000 060817 0000 060818 0000 060819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 69.6W 14.1N 74.9W 14.3N 79.8W 14.9N 84.2W
BAMM 14.5N 69.5W 14.8N 75.3W 14.7N 81.3W 14.9N 86.9W
A98E 14.2N 65.6W 15.1N 70.3W 15.9N 74.8W 17.1N 78.1W
LBAR 15.2N 67.9W 15.6N 73.0W 16.2N 78.0W 15.1N 82.2W
SHIP 38KTS 51KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 38KTS 51KTS 59KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 56.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM